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FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

We have a typical seven-game slate this Monday, ranging from a probable blowout (76ers at Wizards) to what should be a hard-fought game between the Rockets and Bucks in Milwaukee. Before looking at individual FanDuel bargains below the $6,000 threshold, let's take a look at what Vegas is predicting for tonight's games:

 

 

Over/Under

Spread

Pacers at Cavaliers

204.5

Cavs -8.0

76ers at Wizards

216.5

Wizards -12.5

Jazz at Celtics

204

Celtics -5.0

Rockets at Bucks

216

Rockets -1.5

Grizzlies at Nuggets

206

Grizzlies -2.5

Thunder at Kings

228

Thunder -8.0

Nets at Clippers

210

Clippers -13.0

 

 

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$6,000-$5,001

 

*Note: This is written in the afternoon, so be mindful of player updates and injuries which have occurred since 1pm ET.

 

Danilo Gallinari's absence is a massive boon for Will Barton's ($6,000 vs. MEM) usage rate, playing time and overall fantasy appeal -- he logged 43 minutes on Friday and is all but guaranteed big minutes vs. Memphis tonight. Barton has reached 31 FDP in four of his past six games and faces a team that's giving up the seventh-most points to opposing benches over their past 10 games, so even if he doesn't start the matchup is favorable. Simply put, Barton's FanDuel price doesn’t adequately reflect his upside with Gallinari injured.

 

Sticking with a Nuggets theme, Kenneth Faried ($6,000 vs. MEM) is averaging 20.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.0 steals in his previous two games. Like Barton, Faried should also see an uptick in minutes and usage with Danilo Gallinari on the shelf and Jusuf Nurkic (knee) questionable. He's a solid option at this price, though not a lock for 5x value given the matchup -- Memphis has been a particularly rough matchup for opposing PFs, and they run at the second-slowest pace in the league over their past 10 games. That's not as huge a deal for a guy like Barton, who can create for himself in the halfcourt, but Faried needs to run to produce big offensive numbers.

 

Serge Ibaka ($6,000 vs. SAC) is coming off a big game vs. the Warriors on Saturday and gets a terrific matchup tonight -- after the Rockets and Bulls, no team has been more lenient vs. opposing PFs over the past three weeks. This should be a high-scoring affair with an over/under of 228 points, and Ibaka has been steady if not spectacular lately. He's dipped no lower than 24.0 FDP in his past six games, all but ensuring 4x value with upside.

 

I'd love to have only two PFs in this price range, but almost have to mention Jabari Parker ($5,600 vs. HOU). He's coming off a quiet game vs. the Pistons (13 points, five boards, three assists in 34 minutes), which is good news since it could suppress ownership tonight. It would be a mistake to fade him, however, as prior to Saturday's game Parker had a minimum of 31 FDP in five straight games and he faces...the Rockets. The Rockets have been a glorious matchup for opposing PFs this season and the equation hasn't changed since the All-Star break. In his past six games, Parker is averaging 40.2 minutes with a usage rate of 22.8 percent -- he's easily one of my favorite bargains tonight.

 

Nikola Jokic ($5,500) played only 11 minutes vs. Dallas on Friday but I don't expect that to become a trend, and he's capable of explosive games in just 24-28 minutes. With Marc Gasol (foot) out and Brandan Wright (knee) iffy to suit up on Monday, Jokic could have a field day in the paint. The risk of a small-ball showdown is off-putting, as we saw on Friday, but keep an eye on the Grizzlies' injury report and consider firing up Jokic if B-Wright is ruled out. I'll throw Darrell Arthur ($3,700) into the conversation as well, especially if Jusuf Nurkic's knee forces him to miss another game.

 

Darren Collison ($5,200 vs. OKC) could be poised for a big night on Monday if Rajon Rondo's thumb and toe injuries force him to sit out. Rondo did practice on Sunday, but George Karl reportedly “wouldn’t commit” to Rondo playing tonight. Even if Rondo does play, Collison is worthy of consideration because 1) he's logged at least 31 minutes in five straight games, averaging 27.5 FDP during that span, 2) both the Kings and Thunder play at a top-10 pace and this game should be a wild shootout, and 3) as a reserve he'd be in less danger of foul trouble vs. Russell Westbrook, while running and gunning vs. guys like Cameron Payne, Randy Foye and Dion Waiters. Keep an eye on the Kings' injury report.

 

 $5,000-$4,001

 

Matt Barnes ($5,000 vs. DEN) has given DFS owners a few headaches lately, which means his ownership could be down in tournaments tonight despite a high-upside matchup vs. the Nuggets. Yes, Barnes is inconsistent -- last week he dropped 25 points and eight boards vs. the Lakers, only to follow it up with a scoreless game...also vs. the Lakers. On the flipside, he's playing big minutes (33.5 over his past five games) and faces a Nuggets team that just lost their starting small forward. Barnes is a safe bet to approach 5x value in what should be a close game.

 

Jerami Grant ($4,600 vs. WAS) is worth considering if Hollis Thompson (illness) can't suit up on Monday. Grant blew up for 13 points, eight boards, five blocks and three steals on Sunday, albeit vs. the horrible defense of the Magic. His 38 minutes were also inflated by Nerlens Noel's second-half benching, so a few things would have to go right here, but a solid 32-minute role would be enough to beat this valuation.

 

$4,000-$3,500

 

JaMychal Green ($4,000 vs. DEN) could be in line for big minutes if Brandan Wright's knee keeps him out tonight -- and considering he hurt his surgically-repaired knee, those odds seems pretty good. Green benefits from the fact that Chris Andersen may be physically limited to 20 minutes or under, and it's hard to envision him playing more than Green. This is another situation where it benefits DFS owners to keep an eye on the injury report, though the Grizzlies are notoriously poor at providing timely updates.

 

Shelvin Mack ($3,700 vs. BOS) has tailed off after a hot start in Utah. In his debut he notched 29.6 FDP in just 24 minutes of action, but in the three games since he's down to just 14.2 FDP in 28.3 minutes. It should be noted that two of those games came vs. Pat Beverley and the Rockets, then the Spurs, both of whom are bottom-10 matchups for opposing PGs. The Celtics are a more middle-of-the-pack matchup and Mack should once again flirt with 30 minutes as the best defensive option vs. Isaiah Thomas, so I'm expecting solid points-to-price value here. Despite his recent struggles, Mack still has the best upside at this dirt-cheap price.

 

With Jameer Nelson (wrist) doubtful to play vs. the Grizzlies on Monday, we could see plenty of D.J. Augustin ($3,700 vs. MEM) leading Denver's second unit. There's risk involved with nearly with any player under $4,000 and Augustin in no exception, but he played 36 minutes in a variety of small lineups on Friday and the result was a close loss to Dallas despite the loss of Gallinari. If coach Mike Malone continues to go small with Gallo sidelined, Augustin could prove to be a solid value -- at this price-point, he only needs 22.2 FDP to return 6x value.

 

Quick Hits: Rodney Hood ($5,900) has been a steady option thanks largely to massive playing time. A matchup vs. the Celtics isn't favorable but it's also not a death-knell for his DFS prospects, so he's worth a look if you want a mid-tier SG and don't like Will Barton tonight...Evan Turner ($5,800) has been very good in February, dipping below 22.8 FDP just once, with five games above 30 FDP. The bad news is that he faces a Utah team which has been a brutal matchup all season long...Myles Turner ($5,6000) is worth a look if you're not sold on Jabari, Ibaka or Faried as a mid-tier PF...Otto Porter ($5,000) is heating up lately and is worth a long look vs. the woeful 76ers, though his already-mediocre playing time is at even greater risk in what could easily be a blowout...J.J. Redick ($4,900) isn't an exciting option, especially in tournaments, but he rarely flops outright and should be approaching 5x value in a favorable matchup vs. the Nets...Donald Sloan ($4,800) has had a handful of nice games lately, but I don't like him vs. Chris Paul tonight...Gary Harris ($4,800) could see a boost in playing time without Gallinari in the lineup, solidifying him as a cash-game option, but he lacks substantial upside in tourneys...Miles Plumlee ($3,600) has had his moments as a starter, but he faces a rough matchup vs. Dwight Howard tonight. The Rockets, though generally a very favorable matchup, have been the third-stingiest team vs. centers since the All-Star break...Vince Carter ($3,800) and Lance Stephenson ($3,800) are both still on the radar as cheap gambles…Finally, keep an eye on the Kings' injury report. In addition to the impact on Collison, mentioned above, it could have frontcourt repercussions -- Rudy Gay (shoulder) is questionable to play, and if he can't suit up Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,300) becomes a much more palatable gamble. Good luck this week!

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.