Loading scores...
Daily Archives

FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

With a nine-game slate in the NBA this Monday, we’re awash in viable FanDuel bargain-bin options. Even the typically thin wing positions offer solid value, but before discussing specific players let’s survey Vegas’ expectations for tonight’s games:

 

 

Over/Under

Spread

Mavericks at Hornets

210.5

Hornets -7.0

Nuggets at Heat

203.5

Heat -5.5

Bulls at Raptors

204.5

Raptors -10.0

Pistons at Wizards

208.5

Wizards -2.0

Grizzlies at Rockets

209

Rockets -10.5

Blazers at Thunder

220.5

Thunder -8.0

Timberwolves at Suns

219.5

Suns -1.0

Cavaliers at Jazz

194.5

Cavs -3.5

Pelicans at Warriors

229.5

Warriors -15.0

 

You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW!

 

$6,000-$5,001

 

Note: These picks are made in the afternoon, so be mindful of any injuries/updates after 1pm ET.

 

Marvin Williams ($5,900 vs. DAL) is in a contract year and it shows – the 11-year veteran has been maddeningly inconsistent throughout his career, but in 2015-16 he’s suddenly reliable. Williams has at least 27 FanDuel points (FDP) in five of his past six games and draws a great matchup vs. Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks, who are giving up the sixth-most FDP to opposing PFs this month. I’d rather pay $100 more to play Tobias Harris ($6,100) vs. the Wizards, but in the sub-$6,000 category I’ll take Marvin over guys like Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka, David Lee or Tristan Thompson (vs. the Jazz).

 

Lance Stephenson ($5,600 at HOU) has become a lot more expensive in the past week, but with good reason – he’s playing big minutes for the decimated Grizzlies, and has averaged 44.0 FDP in his past two games. That’s an unrealistic mark for him to hit with Ray McCallum and Briante Weber taking over primary PG duties, but Lance will still get a heavy workload – in his past 10 games he has a usage rate of 28.0%. The clincher is the matchup vs. Houston, which has the league’s sixth-fastest pace and eighth-worst defensive efficiency. (UPDATE: Lance is now considered 'questionable' with a wrist injury, so keep a close eye on the injury report.)

 

Zach LaVine ($5,400 at PHX) may not be owned in many leagues on Monday due to recent-production bias – he posted 20.9 FDP vs. the Spurs on Tuesday, and just 14.2 FDP vs. the Thunder on Friday. Although disappointing, that obscures the fact that LaVine has played 35+ minutes in eight consecutive games, and he goes from facing elite teams to a Suns’ defense that’s 29th in defensive efficiency (giving up 108.0 points per 100 possessions). This projects as a fast-paced shootout (219.5 over/under) and LaVine should be right in the middle of things, setting him up to exceed 5x value tonight.

 

Matt Barnes ($5,400 at HOU) is as hit-or-miss as they come. He triple-doubled vs. the Pelicans this weekend but promptly flopped vs. the Hawks – what’s worth considering is that exhaustion had a lot to do with that. The veteran poured everything out in 44 minutes during Friday’s OT victory in Memphis, and simply didn’t have it in Saturday’s road loss. Trevor Ariza could make life difficult for Barnes offensively, but the matchup is still favorable and he should play as many minutes as he can handle, giving him solid upside at this middling price-point.

 

Al Jefferson ($5,200 vs. DAL) played 30 minutes on Saturday, his highest mark since returning from knee surgery, and should see a similar workload tonight with Charlotte’s game sandwiched between off-days. Ignoring a foul-plagued dud vs. the Pelicans last week, Big Al is averaging 26.8 FDP in his previous four games, a 5x value that could go even higher vs. a Mavericks team that’s getting shredded by big men on a nightly basis. Neither Zaza Pachulia nor David Lee are a match for Jefferson on the block, and he should give solid return-on-investment if he stays out of foul trouble.

 

$5,000-$4,001

 

I’m leery of Enes Kanter ($5,000) for one reason – he’s averaging just 21.5 minutes in his past four games. On the other hand, it’s impossible to ignore the 30.0 FDP that he’s posting during that span, including a solid game vs. the Spurs on Saturday. If you have a high risk tolerance, Kanter’s 6x value over the past week is enough reason to consider him as a punt-center option.

 

Patrick Beverley ($4,900) is coming off a dreadful game vs. the Hornets on Saturday, during which he failed to score while getting torched by Kemba Walker defensively. He’ll be out for revenge tonight vs. a Memphis team that’s relying on Briante Weber and Ray McCallum as their primary point guards – Bev must be licking his chops. He returned a minimum of 24.9 FDP in the five games prior to Saturday’s dud and could easily go for 30 if tonight’s game doesn’t turn into a blowout – the Rockets are favored to win by 10.5 points.

 

Tony Allen ($4,600 at HOU) should play as many minutes as possible defending James Harden, and his usage rate has climbed as Memphis copes with the loss of Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. (Z-Bo still has no clear return date so it seems unlikely that he’ll play vs. Houston – if he does he’s an instant FanDuel option, given the Rockets’ perpetual failure to defend PFs. UPDATE: Randolph has been ruled out for Monday's game). There aren’t many healthy Grizzlies players you can’t make a case for tonight.

 

Shelvin Mack ($4,300 vs. CLE) is still cheap enough to be a solid low-end option, and the Cavaliers’ otherwise-formidable defense hasn’t been great against opposing point guards. Over the past five games Mack is averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 boards, 5.6 assists and 1.0 steals, with a 22.9% usage rate, and he’ll be facing the Cavs in the second of Cleveland’s back-to-back road games. Add it up and Mack emerges as a solid play.

 

$4,000-$3,500

 

Briante Weber ($3,500) is a very low-risk gamble at this price. He logged 40 minutes in his Grizzlies debut and that only dipped to 32 minutes with Ray McCallum ($4,100 at HOU) on board vs. the Hawks on Saturday. There’s obvious risk here, as the minute-share could tilt in either of their favor, but they’re so cheap that it’s easy to make the case for either – Weber, for instance, is averaging 23.9 FDP in his two games with Memphis, which is 6.8x value. There are enough cheap PGs that you don’t have to gamble on either of them to find value tonight, but the Grizzlies’ guards are at least in the conversation.

 

Josh Richardson ($3,900 vs. DEN) has been between 14-32 FDP in nine of his past 10 games, and he’s averaging 24.5 FDP in his past three games. His minutes continue to hover in the 24-30 range which should be enough to return solid value in a great matchup vs. the Nuggets – Denver is allowing the third-most points to opposing benches over their past 10 games (41.6 ppg), and Richardson should fare well against their thinned-out second unit. A similar case holds for Bulls’ swingman Mike Dunleavy ($3,800), who is returning solid-but-boring DFS value in steady minutes as a starter, though he faces a tougher matchup vs. the Raptors and is currently questionable due to illness.

 

Quick Hits: Keep an eye on the injury report for Norris Cole ($5,700), who has missed three straight games but is listed as day-to-day...Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,300) is locked in right now and he draws a nice, fast-paced matchup vs. the Wizards…Marcus Morris ($5,300) is worth a look for the same reason – he’s notched 30+ FDP in two of his past games, though SFs actually haven’t fared too well against Washington lately…Gary Harris ($5,200) is typically a steady-but-unspectacular option, and Miami’s generally solid defense has been more lenient vs. SGs…Tristan Thompson ($5,000 at UTA) has been good lately, but the matchup is enough reason to fade him…Just like Al Jefferson above, Cody Zeller ($4,600 vs. DAL) gets a nice matchup and comes at a cheap enough price to be worth a look. Big Al is steadily eroding Zeller’s playing time, however, so I prefer the veteran despite his bench role…Justise Winslow ($4,200 vs. DEN) continues to play big minutes and is coming off a pair of impressive road games…Marreese Speights ($3,900 vs. NO) is coming off a massive game and the matchup tonight is great, but he’s far too mercurial to rely on unless you’re going for broke in a tourney…Bobby Portis ($3,800), Nikola Mirotic ($4,700) and Taj Gibson ($5,100) should all earn more minutes with Pau Gasol out at least two games, but I’m only really inclined toward Gibson until we see how Hoiberg doles out Gasol’s minutes…Channing Frye ($3,800 at UTA) has been hot lately but I don’t trust him one bit. Good luck tonight!

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.