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FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

With three games on the playoff slate tonight, FanDuel bargains are once again at a premium. The Hornets and Blazers are trying to avoid a daunting 3-1 series deficit, while the Mavericks are playing to extend their season -- they face a steep climb as 14-point underdogs on the road in OKC. Before discussing individual players, let's take a look at Vegas' expectations for tonight's games:

 

 

Over/Under

Spread

Heat at Hornets

195.5

Hornets -2.0

Mavericks at Thunder

205.5

Thunder -14.5

Clippers at Trail Blazers

205.5

Clippers -3.5

 

Injury Report:

Heat: Hassan Whiteside (thigh) is a game-time decision

Hornets: Nicolas Batum (ankle) will not play in Game 4

Mavericks: David Lee (foot) and Deron Williams (hernia) will not play; Salah Mejri (hip) is a game-time decision; J.J. Barea (groin) is probable

Nothing to report for the Thunder, Clippers or Blazers

 

*As usual, it's imperative that owners check for updates up until the 7pm/8pm deadlines. These picks were made in the afternoon and can be affected by unexpected injury news, lineup changes, etc.

 

With the shortened schedule tonight, I'll highlight one superior value pick at each position before quickly mentioning other low-end guys who are worth considering.

 

Raymond Felton (PG - $6,000) has seen his price rise over the past few games, and not without reason. After a quiet Game 1 in which he posted seven points, three rebounds and two assists, he's come alive in Games 2-4 with averages of 19.3 points, 5.7 boards, 6.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 3.0 turnovers. That adds up to an excellent 35.5 FanDuel points (FDP) per game, which is just under 6x value at this price-point. The Mavs are banged up with Deron Williams out and J.J. Barea (groin) still ailing, ensuring that Felton will once again play a huge role in an up-tempo game. Unless you want to roll the dice on an injured Barea tonight, there simply aren't any other palatable bargain PGs.

 

Wes Matthews (SG - $4,900) is in a similar situation as Felton, as only a blowout will prevent him from playing 35+ minutes in an elimination game. He'll have a fire-at-will mentality tonight and if his shot starts falling (36.2% in the series) he'll cruise past this valuation with ease. One great sign for Matthews is that he's attempted 17 free throws over the past two games, buoying his scoring even when his jumper isn't working. The Thunder were in the top-10 for points allowed to SGs this season, including the fourth-most points from the FT line, so Matthews' upward trend should continue in Game 5. Other SGs worth a look: Devin Harris ($3,500), Dion Waiters ($3,800), Jamal Crawford ($4,200).

 

The SF spot doesn't offer many reliable values tonight. With Nic Batum ruled out there is a big drop-off from Kevin Durant to the next-most-expensive player, Al-Farouq Aminu (SF - $5,500). Aminu has emerged as a key for the Blazers' success in their first-round matchup, as reflected in the 35.0 minutes he averaged in Games 2 and 3. A handful of defensive stats and assists give him some FDP cushioning but the real value comes from his rebounding (9.3 per game in the series) and his scoring (9.3 ppg). The 26.3 FDP he's posting in the series isn't thrilling, at 4.8x value, but he's steady and could have a big game if his perimeter shots go in -- he's getting plenty of open looks but is a mere 4-of-20 beyond the arc. If Aminu isn't your cup of tea, Marvin Williams ($5,100) is cheap enough to consider after a big Game 4, Joe Johnson ($4,600) has been very quiet this series but could erupt if he gets more shots up…and that's about it unless you really want to gamble on Justise Winslow or Justin Anderson.

 

As with PG, SG and SF, I'm not sold on any of the cheapest PFs tonight. Serge Ibaka ($5,900) stands out as the best value pick for a variety of reasons. He's averaging 29.9 FDP through four games in the playoffs, including two games north of 32 FDP. The Mavs were lousy against PFs all season, giving up the 8th-most points and 9th-most FanDuel value, a situation that's exacerbated by the absence of David Lee and the injured state of Salah Mejri. OKC will be going for the jugular tonight and Ibaka should once again have a big role. Elsewhere...Frank Kaminsky (PF - $3,700) played like "college Frank" in Game 4, racking up 15 points and six boards in 35 minutes as a starter. It's hard to envision a repeat performance tonight, but he's at least worth a look. Ed Davis ($3,600) hasn't been as effective as I expected in this series, largely because his already-limited minutes have been unexpectedly eroded by Chris Kaman.

 

Mason Plumlee (C - $5,900) will be heavily owned tonight, and with good reason. The Blazers' center has come alive after a very quiet Game 1 -- in the past two games he's averaged 11.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and only 1.0 turnovers. That adds up to a whopping 45.1 FDP per game, which is 7.6x value based on his price tonight. The Clippers were one of the worst rebounding teams this year, a fact Plumlee is happily exploiting, and Terry Stotts is embracing Plumlee as an unorthodox playmaker. He may not have another 40-FDP game tonight, but is a value pick nonetheless. Al Jefferson ($5,800) is a viable against-the-grain pick tonight, as he's notched 34+ FDP in three of his past five games, including a pair of regular-season games. He's been effective vs. the Heat but is averaging only 23.7 minutes in the series, so there's obvious risk here. Enes Kanter ($5,000) is another low-minute, high-upside player, and like Serge Ibaka he's thriving in a plus-matchup vs. the Mavs' frontcourt. He's coming off a 28-point eruption and has averaged 29.5 FDP in the series, making him a palatable option you're not deploying Whiteside, Jordan or Plumlee. Good luck tonight!

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.