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FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Tonight's two-game slate should be very entertaining, as the Hawks and Cavs square off for Game 1 of their Conference semi-finals matchup, while the Thunder try to recover from Saturday's drubbing in San Antonio. FanDuel lineups will have heavy overlap, however, making value-added bargains crucial, especially in GPP. Let's take a look at Vegas' expectations for tonight's matchups:

 

 

Over/Under

Spread

Hawks at Cavaliers

200

Cavs -7.5

Thunder at Spurs

201.5

Thunder -7.5

 

 

As you can see, these games are remarkably similar for both over/under and point spread. The players below were singled out in the afternoon, so owners should be keenly aware of any injury updates or lineup tweaks that occur after 1pm ET.

 

Almost every position is top-heavy given the light schedule, and point guard is no exception. Jeff Teague ($6,700) is both too expensive to be a true 'bargain' and too inconsistent to be worth gambling on, having averaged just 23.5 minutes in the final two games of the first round. Dennis Schroder ($3,500) is both the cause and beneficiary of Teague's limited minutes, and he stands out as a high-risk, high-reward punt play given his clearance-sale price tonight. He needs just 21 FanDuel points (FDP) to return 6x value, which is well within reach vs. a Cavs team that's relatively lenient vs. point guards. Tony Parker ($4,700) is also worth considering after shredding the Thunder with 12 assists in 27 minutes on Saturday -- he scored 20 points in the Spurs' final regular-season matchup with OKC, and assuming it's not a blowout he should get more than the meager 23.2 minutes he's averaged this postseason.

 

The shooting guard spot is nothing but potential values tonight, with the highest-priced players being J.R. Smith ($4,600) and Kyle Korver ($4,100). All four teams playing tonight were in the top-half of the league for 3-point defense, led by the Spurs (second, holding teams to 32.9% beyond the arc) and Hawks (33.2%). It's tempting to chase Danny Green ($4,000) after he caught fire in Game 1 and posted 31.3 FDP in just 26 minutes, but I'm more inclined toward Korver tonight. Green needs to be extremely efficient offensively to return DFS value, something he's struggled with all season, but Korver has more wiggle-room thanks to a more robust role -- thus far in the postseason he's averaging 8.7 shot attempts in 33.8 minutes per game, compared to just 5.4 shots in 21.8 minutes for Green. The lack of alternatives makes Dion Waiters ($3,700) an option, but I'd rather go with J.R. Smith, Korver and/or Green.

 

Kevin Durant ($10,000) is having a relatively quiet postseason and he's unlikely to explode in Game 2 with Kawhi Leonard draped all over him defensively, leaving LeBron James ($10,300) as the preferred 'stars' play at SF. Kawhi Leonard ($9,200) is also a per-minute stud who can only be checked by a blowout, and for bargain-bin purposes the only real option is Kent Bazemore ($5,500). Baze averaged 14.0 points, 7.0 boards, 1.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks in the first round, and could have done even more if his shots were falling (37.3% FGs). A matchup with LeBron isn't ideal, to be sure, but he still has more upside than other SF options like Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Scott, Kyle Anderson or Richard Jefferson.

 

The PF spot is led by Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love, all of whom cost $7,500 or more tonight. Serge Ibaka ($5,600) has become cheap enough to discuss as a bargain, especially since the Thunder simply need him to play at a high level -- he led his team offensively in Game 1, with 19 points, but was torched defensively in the blowout loss. Playing time shouldn't be an issue for Ibaka tonight, and he's the only clear-cut value pick at PF. If you're willing to roll the dice on a blowout, David West ($4,000) and Boris Diaw ($3,500) could also return value as garbage-time specialists.

 

Al Horford ($7,600) is the only center who costs more than $5,000 tonight, and he faces a Cavs team that yielded the least FDP to opposing centers this season (42.4 FDP per game). Tim Duncan ($5,000) faces the dual hurdles of limited minutes and limited usage, Enes Kanter ($4,700) has solid per-minute potential but is stifled by the matchup (the Spurs gave up the second-fewest FDP to centers this year) and dwindling playing time...he's averaged just 15.5 minutes in OKC's past two games. Most owners will roll the dice on one of the above-mentioned players, but there are two alternatives at C tonight -- Tristan Thompson ($4,500) and Steven Adams ($4,600). Thompson went off for 30.5 FDP in his most recent regular-season matchup vs. the Hawks and should get enough minutes to offset his paltry usage rate. Adams is a safe bet to play 25-28 minutes and has returned at least 20 FDP in eight of his past 10 games. A lack of explosive upside makes him better-suited to cash games, but he's worth a look in GPP given the lack of appealing alternatives. Good luck!

 

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.