Welcome to a special edition of the Bargain Bin as I fill in for Spencer today. It's a weird kind of six game slate tonight. Three medium pace games, with over/under around 204, and three low pace games with over/under around 196. A very binary Vegas day. We also have a paucity of bargain plays today, particularly at forward, so I've done my best to describe how I plan on using value in my lineups for tonight too. I try to keep these below $5500 for FanDuel if possible. Good luck tonight!
Jarrett Jack ($5600): Since starting for Deron Williams, Jack has been taking the fantasy world by storm. He's flashed this upside at times in the past, but now is the moment to take advantage at this salary. Playing against the Kings in one of the night's higher scoring games, Jack should continue his hot shooting (over 20 points in the last two games). He's seeing as many minutes as he can handle and is easily the best value PG today.
Mario Chalmers ($5200): If you want to go a different direction, but still access a high scoring and competitive game, look at Chalmers. After two terrible games, he should be low owned tonight, despite the excellent matchup with Orlando's backcourt. His shot will come back, and tonight could be the night we see a nice bounceback performance. He's still seeing 35+ minutes a night, despite sharing the court with both Norris Cole and Dwyane Wade now. You shouldn't expect a blockbuster, but 25 fpts isn't out of the question. Given the recent slump, Chalmers is only a GPP play for me right now.
Advice: With several good PG options tonight, I'm probably only going cheap with one, and I prefer to target the higher scoring games when I do. George Hill ($5100) and CJ Watson ($4600) are both intriguing options tonight in a good matchup against Chicago. The knock on both is a predicted low scoring game, and the fact that at some point the time share will shift. Since Hill is back, Watson is seeing 30+ mpg while Hill gets back up to speed with about 25 mpg. That has made Watson the better DFS play, particularly at his reduced salary. Look for more information on whether Hill is ready to resume a full work load closer to game time tonight if you want an Indiana G. Elfrid Payton ($4800) is also in a nice spot tonight in Miami, but he is a somewhat inconsistent producer with a fantasy range of 15-30 any given night. Jerryd Bayless ($4400) has been quietly solid over the past month if you need to go a little cheaper here. I don't typically like to start bench players for DFS, but this is a good matchup and Milwaukee has been playing well.
Sergei Karasev ($4100): The Kings give up the 7th most fantasy points to SG and with injuries everywhere in Brooklyn, Karasev is seeing decent playing time. In about 25 mpg over the last five (since his return), Karasev is producing about 20 fpts/game. He is pretty steady in that range, making him a safe cash game play.
Evan Fournier ($4700): Miami is the number one matchup for opposing SG. Fournier struggles in difficult match ups, but has shined in some good ones. He's dependent on his shot falling, but he had only two really off games in December. Fournier is simply another cheap way to take advantage of the high point total in this one.
Advice: Shooting guard is actually pretty deep today with James Harden, Jimmy Butler, and Dwyane Wade at the top, Rodney Stuckey and Victor Oladipo in the mid range, and JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford, and Ben McLemore joining these fellas in the bargain bin. With good options at all price ranges, I'm waiting on SG to see what fits best after I solidify the other positions tonight.
Jared Dudley ($4800): I'll keep including Jared Dudley in everything I write as long as he stays cheap. We all know he's not going to score 20+ real points a night, but he's finding ways to stay on the floor and contribute in multiple categories, which is exactly what you want in a bargain SF. He has double digit points in five of the last seven games, and adds value in steals, rebounds, and assists.
Advice: Small forward is not looking good in terms of value plays tonight after Dudley. The Bucks give up the 5th most fantasy points to the position, forcing us to consider Gerald Henderson ($3800) or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5000). Both have been inconsistent with Lance Stephenson sidelined. Both their minutes played and production during those minutes are super variable. If you're inclined to go here-and I'm probably not-MKG has a higher floor and a bit more upside, but both guys have three games with 23+ fpts over the last six. Henderson is the better play if you're punting the position to fit in another stud. Corey Brewer is a decent option at $5500. He's been gunning since arriving in Houston, but the production seems unsustainable. A matchup with the Wizards just might bring him back to Earth. Luol Deng ($6300) is my favorite play at SF today as he is playing very heavy minutes, shooting well (minus the Philadelphia game last week), and providing a few assists, rebounds, and steals every night. I don't see how he doesn't reach 30 fpts tonight.
Kris Humphries ($4900): Washington at Houston will be a good game. Both teams have thrived on defensive efficiency this year, contributing to the lower point total expected in this game. Kris Humphries was an obvious value play in good situations while Nene Hilario was out, but since his return, not much has changed except perception. Humphries saw a two game dip in production when Nene played well, but has bounced right back over the last two playing about 25 minutes (more than Nene), averaging 16 pts, 7.5 reb, 2.5 ast, with no turnovers.
John Henson ($3700): This is purely a price play as I don't love the matchup for Milwaukee in Charlotte tonight, and I don't want this to turn into a Bucks propaganda piece. Henson returned to the lineup for the b2b with Atlanta Friday and Saturday and put up 20 and 21 fantasy points in 18 and 19 minutes, respectively. With Sanders out again tonight, Henson should see these minutes (insomuch as one can use logic to predict Bucks rotations) and produce accordingly. All he really needs is 18-19 fpts to make you happy, and he's capable of more.
Advice: I want Blake Griffin in one of these slots, in high scoring game at home vs Utah. Griffin is on a roll, and I'll happily pay up for him tonight. Brooklyn gets a good matchup on paper with the Sacramento frontcourt but DeMarcus Cousins is back to his dominant self and Brooklyn just doesn't have anyone playing enough minutes nightly for me to risk using them. Mirza Teletovic ($4100) is the best, but not a good, option. Speaking of Cousins being back, Reggie Evans loses value, and Jason Thompson is still (and always as far as I'm concerned) unplayable. Humphries and Henson are my only options for a bargain PF.
Chris Anderson ($4200): Miami gets the #1 fantasy matchup for centers with Orlando tonight. I'm sure a large part of that ranking is due to Nikola Vucevic being out for a significant chunk of the season, but it's not the only reason to consider Anderson. Miami's frontcourt is battered, and even though Anderson himself is not 100% (ankle), he is playing about 25 minutes and returning nearly 5X value (about 20 fpts/game). He has a relatively limited range of outcomes in terms of fantasy points, which makes him a good cash game play if you want to spend elsewhere.
Advice: You'll see Zaza Pachulia ($4800) in a lot of lineups tonight, with Larry Sanders ruled out, but not mine. If I'm not saving with the Birdman, I'll be spending up on Nikola Vucevic or Al Jefferson. Taking bigs against Milwaukee is something I almost always do, while using a Bucks C is something I almost never do. Pachulia has done well in his two recent starts for Sanders, notching at least 30 fpts in both. If you trust him and Jason Kidd to make that happen again, you have more faith than I do...and I'm ok with that. I'm also not using the red hot Rudy Goebert ($5000). His production remained despite dropping from 30 to 17 minutes on Saturday, because he was able to contribute across the board with a 4/6/2/3/2 line. The Clippers are a tough matchup, so despite his per minute fantasy production, I'm out.