Loading scores...
Daily Archives

FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

With another two-game slate on Monday, FanDuel bargains are in high demand. Tonight's games have identical spreads, according to Vegas, but there's a 22-point difference in expected over/under tonight. Let's take a closer look:

 

 

Over/Under

Spread

Raptors at Heat

192

Heat -5.0

Warriors at Blazers

214

Warriors -5.0

 

The players below were singled out in the afternoon, so owners should be keenly aware of any injury updates or lineup tweaks that occur after 1pm ET. Given the limited options available tonight, my aim is to quickly discuss most of the viable players at each position.

 

It's a familiar picture at point guard tonight. Stephen Curry is 'doubtful' to play due to his sprained knee, according to coach Steve Kerr, which leaves Shaun Livingston ($4,800) as the most appealing value play tonight. A lack of explosive upside dents his GPP appeal, but he's notched at least 20 FanDuel points (FDP) in nine straight games and will once again play steady minutes assuming Curry is ruled out. Corey Joseph ($3,600) is getting minutes in the low-20s and could see a few more tonight, with Toronto shifting toward more small-ball. His playing time rarely translates to FDP, particularly against the Heat, so most owners will be deploying some combination of Livingston, Damian Lillard and Kyle Lowry. Goran Dragic ($6,500) was benched down the stretch on Saturday in favor of Josh Richardson's defense, which doesn't bode well; Lowry finally looked like himself after halftime during Game 3 but has been wildly inefficient all postseason; meanwhile, Lillard is coming off a 58-FDP gem and should have near-universal ownership tonight.

 

Allen Crabbe ($3,900) and Terrence Ross ($3,600) the only real 'value' options at SG tonight, and they're shaky enough to ignore in favor of the big guns -- Klay Thompson ($8,200), Dwyane Wade ($8,100), DeMar DeRozan ($7,600) and C.J. McCollum ($7,100). Crabbe has averaged 19.9 FDP in 28.0 minutes per game vs. the Warriors in the playoffs, a 5x value relative to tonight's price. I can't make a very strong case for him, so let's conclude with a look at key stats for the 'big four' at SG...here are their respective usage rates/effective FG percentages/average FDP for this postseason:

 

Klay Thompson: 29.3% usage/56.6% eFG/37 FDP = 4.5x value relative to tonight's price

Dwyane Wade:  32.4% usage/49.5% eFG/35.6 FDP = 4.4x value

DeMar DeRozan:  29.7% usage/34.6% eFG/29.3 FDP = 3.9x value

C.J. McCollum: 22.7% usage/46.7 eFG%/28.9 FDP = 4.1x value

 

Owners are forced to save at the SF position tonight, and the only question is which bargain-bin players you trust the most. Justise Winslow was never a viable option and he fell out of Miami's rotation in Game 3, which leaves us with only five real choices. I'll run through them in quick succession, from priciest to cheapest. Joe Johnson ($5,100) suffers from limited usage but the Heat have turned to him as a primary option at times vs. Toronto -- he's averaging a whopping 40.0 minutes in the series, good enough for 26.6 FDP. He's my top pick at the position. Moe Harkless ($4,800) has shown DFS promise this postseason, but he's too risky for me tonight after a hip bruise limited him to just six minutes in Game 3 (he's currently 'probable' for Game 4). DeMarre Carroll ($4,700) has cracked 20 DFS points just twice in 10 postseason games...not good. The minutes are there but so is the rust, and it doesn't help that Carroll is still finding his way in an offense dominated by two high-volume guards. Jonas Valanciunas' absence should shift more shot attempts in DeMarre's direction, however, and he's a solid No. 2 option at SF tonight. Andre Iguodala ($4,600) is worth a look thanks primarily to Steph's absence, but he's been very boom-or-bust -- in nine playoff games he's topped 30 FDP three times, gone below 15 FDP three times, and fallen in the middle three times. His ability to contribute across the board mitigates low scoring, thankfully, which makes me view him as a safer option than teammates Harrison Barnes ($4,400). Barnes is averaging 34.7 minutes vs. the Blazers, but he has little to show for it in FanDuel with just 20.7 FDP per game.

 

Draymond Green is expensive at $10,000 but (assuming Stephen Curry isn't surprisingly cleared to play) he's simply a must-own player. That leaves owners with limited options at the second PF slot. Luol Deng ($6,300) has struggled vs. the Raptors, averaging just 8.7 points per game after posting 19.3 ppg in seven games vs. the Pacers. Deng attributed his struggles to Toronto's defense, saying it's been harder to cut to the rim and move without the ball. He may have a bit more space to maneuver with both teams shifting (by necessity) to more small-ball lineups, but it's hard to envision him going wild in Game 4. Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,900) was terrific in Game 3, and he hit his open 3-pointers, resulting in a 36-FDP gem. I'm skeptical that he'll repeat, but he has the upside necessary for GPP play. Ed Davis ($3,800) also had a strong Game 3 but that was due largely to Mason Plumlee's foul trouble, which freed up Davis to log a postseason-high 30 minutes. It feels fluky. Patrick Patterson ($3,800) barely saw his price rise and is a reasonable punt-PF option, after starting and playing 36 minutes on Saturday. He's a much better fit than Luis Scola, and Jonas Valanciunas' absence leaves the Raptors' frontcourt extra thin, which should result in plenty of playing time for PatPat. Even deeper in the PF barrel we find Josh McRoberts ($3,500), who logged 13 minutes in Game 3 following Hassan Whiteside's knee injury. He's poised for solid playing time, assuming Whiteside can't suit up, and is a more palatable gamble than teammate Amare Stoudemire ($3,500).

 

Hassan Whiteside (sprained knee) is questionable for Game 4, but it would be surprising to see him suit up. Jonas Valanciunas (sprained ankle) has been ruled out for the series. The only clear FanDuel winners for the Heat are mentioned above, but the Raptors have one center who stands out tonight -- Bismack Biyombo ($4,700). It's a shame that Biyombo isn't cheaper (he's slightly more expensive than Andrew Bogut) but he's still a worthwhile punt-play. In 22 starts this season, Biyombo averaged 7.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. That adds up to 25.8 FDP per game, or 5.5x value. Throw in the fact that he'll likely be facing a decimated Heat frontcourt, and the biggest threat is Miami going so small that they force Dwane Casey to take Biyombo off the court. Mason Plumlee ($6,100) is a viable target but he's having nowhere near the success he found vs. L.A. in the first round, and Andrew Bogut ($4,500) is a nightly crapshoot, so I'm sticking with Biyombo at C tonight. Good luck!

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.