Loading scores...
Daily Archives

FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

There are only three games on the schedule tonight, one of the lightest Monday's all season, making FanDuel value picks scarcer than usual.

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Pelicans at Knicks

215

Knicks -4.0

Thunder at Bulls

209.5

Thunder -1.5

Mavericks at Wolves

194

Wolves -4.5

 

The biggest variable tonight is the health of Jimmy Butler. If his 36.9 minutes and 27.9% usage are eliminated from Chicago's lineup, there will be a major ripple effect throughout the roster. With that in mind, be sure to check for injury updates until the moment your lineups lock tonight.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW!

 

Dwyane Wade ($6,600, SG) is too expensive to qualify as a 'bargain', but he still gets the 'value pick' designation tonight, especially if Jimmy Butler (illness) can't suit up. The only other SG above $6k tonight is Zach LaVine ($6,400, SG), but he faces Wes Matthews and a Mavericks team that's giving up the second-fewest points to opposing SGs over the past month. Wade is also expected to be rested on Tuesday, so there’s no reason to conserve him or limit his minutes tonight. That brings us to Victor Oladipo ($5,900, SG), who is cheap enough to make my roster tonight. He was quiet in his first game back from a long absence on Dec. 31, but in four January games he's averaging 29.2 FDP per game. Given his price tag, that averages out to almost exactly 5x value, which is the rough target for FanDuel players. It helps that the Bulls haven't been a scary matchup for SGs. If you want a cheaper guy, give Buddy Hield ($4,100, SG) a look. He cooled off on Saturday, but in the two previous games his minutes were up to 33.0 and he cashed in with 17.5 points, 6.0 boards, 3.0 assists and a deluge of 3-pointers. He's been markedly better on the road this season, too, so hopefully the thrill of playing in MSG will translate to a big night.

 

At the PG position, Derrick Rose ($6,200) is the only non-Westbrook player with a great matchup (against the Pelicans). Deron Williams ($5,900), Ricky Rubio ($5,600) and Michael Carter-Williams ($4,800) all have tough draws, and they're already prone to duds. MCW played just 16 minutes on Saturday and was marginalized in the second half, as Chicago ran with a Jimmy Butler/Dwyane Wade backcourt, but he'd be a stronger target if Butler sits out tonight. If you're uncomfortable spending $4,800 or more for the guys mentioned above, you can think about pairing Westbrook with Jerian Grant ($3,600). The Bulls' backup PG has played 20+ minutes in three straight games, averaging 19.2 FDP in that span, though that's inflated by a big game vs. Charlotte last Monday. J.J. Barea ($5,200) and Brandon Jennings ($4,100) are also punt-play contenders, with Jennings' boom-or-bust nature is somewhat mitigated by the matchup vs. New Orleans.

 

There is a salary gap in the SF spot tonight, going all the way from Andrew Wiggins ($6,400) to Doug McDermott ($4,000). McDermott stands out as a value thanks to his consistent play over the past five games -- he's averaging 13.6 points, 4.4 boards, 1.6 assists and 0.8 steals, and has been particularly great in his past two outings. "It's a great feeling having the trust from the coaches, [Dwyane] Wade and Jimmy [Butler] and those guys, to be out there with them," McDermott said, referring to his improved play. His minutes have spiked into the 30s but his FanDuel price has barely budged -- take advantage of the situation. If you want to double-punt the SF spot, Andre Roberson ($3,800) is a decent gamble. He often disappears, but is averaging 26.7 FDP in 37.5 minutes over OKC's past two games. The huge playing time provides some insurance against low usage and sporadic defensive stats.

 

The Bulls happen to have plenty of cheap players with decent upside, and on a three-game night you must also consider Nikola Mirotic ($4,500) at PF. He's coming off a pair of strong games and has dipped below 20 FDP just twice since mid-December. His ceiling isn't that high, but he has a decent floor and the price is right at just $4.5k. Other PF values include Gorgui Dieng ($5,500) and Enes Kanter ($5,300), but if you want to go really cheap there's always Donatas Motiejunas ($3,800). He dropped 11 points, five rebounds, four assists and one steal (25 FDP) in just 20 minutes during his Pelicans debut on Saturday. That could be a mirage, but you won't find a better PF punt at this price.

 

The center spot is not pretty. You're dealing with guys like Andrew Bogut ($3,800) and Kyle O'Quinn ($4,000) at the low end, neither of whom offers reliable upside (despite KOQ's penchant for random eruptions). Robin Lopez ($4,200) has exceeded 17 FDP just once in Chicago's past five games. Joakim Noah ($4,900) had a hot stretch while Kristaps Porzingis was out, but in the two games since he's averaging just 20.5 minutes. The Pelicans are using Anthony Davis at center, so this doesn't project as a good matchup for Joakim. The only other viable center below Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,200) is Steven Adams ($5,900), and he's my pick if you're not going with KAT tonight. His minutes are hovering in the 30 range and he's been even more efficient scoring than usual, resulting in a brilliant four-game stretch with an average 35.5 FDP. Given the squirrelly nature of the other cheap centers tonight, Adams is too good to pass up.

 

Tidbits: Seth Curry ($3,900, SG) was decimated by J.J. Barea's return and didn't even get 1.0 FDP in his last game...Denzel Valentine ($3,500, SG) expects to play after missing two games with an ankle injury, and could be worth a punt-play if Jimmy Butler's illness keeps him out...good luck this week!

Ryan Knaus

Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for NBC Sports Edge since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.