Today, we’ll focus on the 11 game evening contest. Philadelphia is the biggest weather risk with a 60 percent chance for storms. Detroit, San Diego, and Los Angeles could also see an interruption. Unlike Philadelphia, there appears to be little risk of postponement at those locations. Verify those details closer to game time.
With Giancarlo Stanton sidelined, the Marlins have very little offensive firepower. However, they offer a low cost stacking opportunity against Chad Billingsley and the Phillies. Billingsley has a 6.75 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 3.66 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, and 49 hits allowed in 32 innings. To say he’s been hittable is an understatement. Meanwhile, Tom Koehler is a deceptively decent pitcher with an easy matchup and a $7,000 price tag. A win is likely. Just watch out for the rain.
DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH
Brandon Belt – 1B – SFG (FanDuel Price: $3,000)
Belt is doing his best Adam Lind impression. He’s slashing .306/.371/.539 against righties compared to a .158/.262/.211 line versus fellow southpaws. He’s accomplished this while playing his home games at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Tonight, he’ll play at power-centric Chase Field against Chase Anderson. The Diamondbacks righty gives up his share of home runs. With just 5.68 K/9, he’s also quite hittable. The Giants look like a solid stacking opportunity tonight.
Kolten Wong – 2B – STL (FanDuel Price: $3,100)
Bartolo Colon has his good days. He also has games when he gives up 10 hits in five innings. Since he works around the plate with unimposing stuff, I expect Wong to put balls in play. The Cardinals second baseman has sneaky power and speed. If there is one concern, it’s an aggressive approach. He actually does a good job laying off pitches outside the zone – he just swings at everything in the zone. Colon is a nibbler so he could induce some weak contact against Wong.
Matt Kemp – OF – LAD (FanDuel Price: $3,200)
There are a number of excellent outfielders around this price point, most of which are not listed in today’s column. I selected Kemp because he’s hitting like a $4,000 player over the last month. Since June 18, half of his hits have gone for extra bases including six home runs. Petco Park is a rough place for right-handed power, but there is plenty of space in the power alley for more doubles. Chad Bettis is decent matchup. The Rockies bullpen is terrible.
Addison Russell – 2B – CHC (FanDuel Price: $2,200)
Even though they’re a National League club, the Cubs have been batting Russell ninth. Obviously, this isn’t an ideal development for his DFS value. The pitcher (Jon Lester) could move a runner into scoring position for Russell, but that’s the only positive. He’s shown much better contact rates in the minors. I expect him to adjust to major league pitching before the end of the season. When he does, he should become a solid source of average and power. So why consider him tonight? He’s opposed by mediocre southpaw Manny Banuelos.
Adrian Beltre – 3B – TEX (FanDuel Price: $2,600)
The Rangers cleanup hitter is having one of the worst seasons of his career, but he’s shown some signs of life. Over his last five games, he’s managed nine hits and a walk in 21 plate appearances. While I wouldn’t put much stock in such a small sample, it’s a reminder that Beltre’s career includes a number of scorching hot streaks. He’s best against left-handed pitchers, but he’s no slouch against righties. Scott Feldman is returning from the disabled list tonight. I’d bet on the Rangers chasing him quickly. Too bad the Astros have a strong bullpen.
Jose Iglesias – SS – DET (FanDuel Price: $2,200)
Chris Tillman is in the midst of a strangely ineffectual season. On the surface, not much has changed from last year. He’s walking a few more guys, but that shouldn’t result in a 5.40 ERA. The real problem is a .330 BABIP. He has a .280 career BABIP. This season has been eerily similar to his 2011 campaign.
In any event, Tillman is something of a mystery. For Iglesias, it doesn’t matter why Tillman has been bad so long as it continues tonight. Iglesias usually bats ninth for the Tigers. Hitting at the bottom of the order costs him plate appearances, but he can also score several runs when the meat of the order comes around. He has no power to speak of against righties. You’re hoping for multiple hits on a minimum price tag.
Pedro Alvarez – 1B – PIT (FanDuel Price: $2,600)
Like gambles? Here’s a classic one. Alvarez is opposed by a decent righty – Jimmy Nelson. However, the game is at homer friendly Miller Park. It boosts left-handed power by 22 percent. It’s reductionist to say that it’s home run or bust with Alvarez. However, if you take this gamble, that’s what you’re hoping. One-fifth of Alvarez’s hits have gone over the fence this season.
Rougned Odor – 2B – TEX (FanDuel Price: $2,800)
Since returning to the majors on June 15, Odor has been one of the best hitters in the league. He’s batted .365/.411/.576 over the time period. While a .378 BABIP screams fluke, strong plate discipline and a low strikeout rate could mean that most of the production is sustainable. Odor offers contact skills, power, and speed. He usually bats second or eighth in the lineup which obviously affects his DFS value.
Yan Gomes – C – CLE (FanDuel Price: $2,200)
Gomes isn’t hitting well this season, and he doesn’t have the platoon advantage against Anthony DeSclafani. So why consider using him tonight? For one, the other bargain catchers are just as flawed. Gomes strikes me as too talented for a minimum price even with his myriad flaws. He’s been hitting better recently with a .277/.292/.447 line in his last 12 games. It’s an arbitrary end point, but it could also be a sign that he’s back on track after recovering from injury. The game is at homer friendly Great American Ball Park.