FanDuel Fades Week 9
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR4 on the LA Rams. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 9, I’m fading…
Derek Carr: Avoiding the Denver defense should be a high priority if you like money. Even though Carr is coming off a four touchdown, 513-yard game, and his price is still under $8K, you have to expect some serious regression this week. Denver is allowing opposing quarterbacks around 200 yards and 0.75 TDs per game this season. With Amari Cooper ailing as well, Carr is a definite fade.
Antonio Brown: Vegas has this game as one of the lower scoring tilts of the week, and AFC North rivalries frequently live up to their low billing. Add the facts that Ben Roethlisberger is definitely not fully healed from his knee procedure, and worse on the road and it’s hard to pay up for Brown this week.
Injury concerns: Amari Cooper, Travis Benjamin, Jeremy Maclin, Tyrell Williams, Theo Riddick, Carlos Hyde, Jerrick McKinnon, Devontae Booker, and Ben Roethlisberger. Note that Hunter Henry and Spencer Ware are ruled out.
I tend to avoid injured players as a rule. If there’s someone nearly equivalent in terms of talent and matchup, I’m not taking a chance on a gimpy hamstring or weak shoulder. There are a couple of exceptions to that general rule this weekend.
I was high on Dontrelle Inman early in the week when it appeared that at least Travis Benjamin would miss time, but now both he and Tyrell Williams are in line to play. I’m using Williams, fading Benjamin. I don’t trust that his knee is near 100% and that he’ll have a full productive game.
Amari Cooper is coming off an amazing game in Tampa Bay, but faces Denver this weekend. Even if he plays, he’s not playing for me.
With good value at the running back position this weekend, I don’t want to risk Hyde, but I would use Mike Davis in a great matchup with New Orleans if Hyde is ruled out. Theo Riddick sounds like he plans to play, but is only high on my list in PPR formats and Minnesota is formidable. I don’t see a lot of points being scored in this game, limiting my enthusiasm for McKinnon as well. Even if Booker is a full go, I’m not using him at his $7K salary. The matchup is a good one, but I like Trevor Siemian to be throwing the ball a lot in this game.
I never use Ben Roethlisberger when he’s less than 100% and on the road. Baltimore isn’t a great passing matchup and Vegas likes this game to be on the lower scoring end of the scale. His price is low enough for multi-entry tournament consideration, but that’s it for me.
In Week 9, players with high projected ownership, based in part on Thursday ownership percentages, are Charcandrick West, Devontae Booker (see above), Ezekiel Elliott, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Donte Moncrief, and Miami D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with chalk plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.