Now that we’re into Week 12 of the NFL season, we have a great sample size of statistics we can work with, and we can also better predict who will be the most popular selections on FanDuel. Once again this week we’ll target players based on correlation, upside, and projected low-ownership percentage. Good luck!
One way to give yourself the best chance at a huge score, which you’ll need to win a seat to Las Vegas for the FanDuel championships, is to correlate your plays as much as possible. What does this mean, exactly? The best example is pairing your QB with a WR/TE. The logic behind this pairing is simple enough: Simply, when your receiver or tight end scores points, by default, so does your quarterback. There’s a correlation between the two that gives you a higher probability of putting up a big score, as you really only need one of them to put up a monster score, and the other one will follow suit. Here’s a few simple correlation plays that could pay dividends on Sunday:
1. Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin - Kaepernick can be a frustrating quarterback in daily fantasy, but he’s got a cake matchup this week at home against the Rams and should find success at a very moderate price tag. Look for him to hook up with favorite target Anquan Boldin on his way to a big game. The Rams do have a stout run defense, so the damage the 49ers do should be through the air. That bodes well for this combination. Kaep and Boldin make for excellent daily fantasy GPP plays in Week 12.
2. Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener - Luck comes in as the most expensive quarterback on the board, but he’s got a fantastic matchup against a weak Jaguars pass defense. With Ahmad Bradshaw and especially Dwayne Allen sidelined for this game, expect Fleener to see a few more targets and perhaps even find the end zone. Fleener’s low price tag helps offset the salary you’ll have to pay for Andrew Luck.
Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $2.5 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 12's games. It's only $25 to join and first prize is $300,000. Starts Sunday, November 23rd at 1pm ET. Here's the link.
Here’s the truth about huge qualifiers that only really pay 1% of less of the field: you’re likely to lose your buy-in. No matter how good you are at DFS or how well you can project players, the fact is these qualifiers are VERY difficult to win and it will likely take you many tries to win your way to the big dance. You’re going to need to put up a monster score to best the field, and to do that you need to roster an entire team full of upside. Here are some guys who are capable of putting up a huge number on Sunday:
1. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots, $6,500 - While it was the Jonas Gray show last week, this game against the Lions should have a completely different script. The Lions have a very stout run defense, and the Patriots have shown again and again that they are willing to game plan around the strengths/weaknesses of opposing defenses. Expect Vereen to see the majority of snaps out of the backfield for the Patriots on his way to a big fantasy day.
2. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers, $9,000 - You likely don't need to be convinced of the upside of Jordy Nelson, but at some point we should see an absolute monster game from the Packers’ talented wideout. He normally gets off to fast starts and then fades as the Packers control the game. Perhaps this will be the game that Nelson stays involved in the game for all four quarters en route to a truly dominant performance from one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Low Percentage Owned Play:
Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,500 - The Jaguars running back has emerged as a legitimate threat in the last few weeks and gets to take on a very weak run defense in the Indianapolis Colts. Most users will be scared off by the relatively high price tag, but we saw what Jonas Gray did to the Colts, and if the Jaguars are able to stay somewhat close, Robinson could have a big game at a tiny ownership percentage.