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FanDuel MLB Bargains: Monday

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

When looking at “bargains” on FanDuel, we'll typically focus on hitters who are $3,200 or lower. In general, we'll only highlight players at the top end of that scale if they have star potential.

 

All 13 games will be played in the evening. Detroit has a 50 percent chance for rain. Atlanta and Minnesota could also see rain. None of these look like postponement risks. Delays are possible.

 

It's an interesting day for top end picks. Noah Syndergaard is one of many pitchers with a fantastic matchup. Syndergaard is in a class of his own between Clayton Kershaw and the rest of the aces. That doesn't mean he's a must play tonight. There's also a core of top offensive picks including a Coors Field game and a Toronto stack.

 

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

 

Editor's Note: Don't whiff on this special FanDuel offer: win your first contest or get your money back (up to $10) to keep playing. Try FanDuel now!

 

Onto the bargain plays...

 

1 – Rick Porcello – SP – Boston (FanDuel $7,400)

 

Porcello has been mostly good this season. His one weakness, home runs, isn't a big worry against a lousy Braves offense. Aside from coughing up too many homers, he's posted a 4.66 ERA, 11.17 K/9, and 1.40 BB/9. His outings have tallied between 39 and 51 points although all three were aided by a win. Porcello's in a good position for his fourth win tonight. Julio Teheran has picked up where he left off last year – and that's not a good thing for him.

 

I'm not a believer in Drew Pomeranz ($6,700), but he's an alternative bargain stud. I don't like that he's a two-pitch guy. They rarely succeed for long in a rotation role. He does have borderline closer stuff though. He's also against Madison Bumgarner, making a win unlikely.

 

2 – Victor Martinez – C – Detroit (FanDuel $2,600)

 

It sure is nice of FanDuel to call VMart a catcher. And it's even nicer of them to make him so cheap. His matchup with Kendall Graveman isn't a recipe for fireworks, but there is plenty of upside for multiple hits, walks, and run production. Graveman isn't entirely immune to home runs either. Once the A's starter throws his typical five plus innings, Martinez will get a couple shots at a beatable bullpen. Even if you think Martinez is done (I don't), he's well worth a flier at a near-minimum price.

 

3 – Adam Lind – 1B – Seattle (FanDuel $2,200)

 

This is a good day to pay for a first baseman. Lind isn't the top bargain at the position. However, he offers plenty of bang for your buck, especially if you're trying to use Syndergaard. Lind's surface stats are ugly. He's hitting .260/.269/.300. Although he's failed to hit for power thus far, he does have a very high 47 percent hard hit rate. It's just a matter of time before good things start to happen. Doug Fister could help him along.

 

4 – Jose Abreu – 1B – Chicago (FanDuel $3,100)

 

Remember how I just said Lind wasn't the top bargain first baseman? If you want more juice for your squeeze, Abreu makes for a solid gamble. Like Lind, April hasn't been kind to the slugging Cuban. Abreu is hitting .183/.259/.338 with a .204 BABIP. Unlike Lind, Abreu's results smell plausible – he's hitting the ball much more softly than past seasons with fewer fly balls. We can still anticipate the good kind of regression, but it's hard to write off his early numbers as bad luck.

 

A matchup against Marcus Stroman isn't ideal for slump busting. However, he's more a solid number two than a true ace, and Toronto's Rogers Centre is home run friendly.

 

5 – Starlin Castro – 2B – New York (FanDuel $2,900)

 

The Yankees are in the basement of the AL East. Luckily, the Rangers are trying to hand them an easy one tonight. Southpaw Cesar Ramos is making a spot start for Texas. The Yankees have a lefty-heavy lineup, but there are enough righties and switch-hitters to punish Ramos.

 

Castro restored his fantasy stock with a searing start to the season. Unsurprisingly, he's been quite pedestrian since the early outburst. While he's tallied points in each of the last nine games, he hasn't eclipsed six points in his last seven games. Over his career, Castro is modestly better against left-handed pitchers. New York should reach the bullpen quickly tonight, although the Rangers don't really have a soft underbelly.

 

6 – David Freese – 3B – Pittsburgh (FanDuel $3,200)

 

How often does a middle-of-the-order hitter at Coors Field qualify as a bargain? Just about never. Freese is a solid, balanced batter as evidenced by his .300/.402/.386 line (.396 BABIP). He's not hitting the ball in the air this year which seriously hampers his ceiling. Chad Bettis is actually a decent right-hander. He still has a rough history at Coors.

 

7 – Kyle Seager – 3B – Seattle (FanDuel $3,000)

 

If you're fading the Coors game or simply want four other Pirates besides Freese, Seager makes for a nice alternative. He's another guy off to a cold, cold start. While a .134/.227/.299 line is off-putting, I don't actually see anything alarming in his batted ball profile.

 

He's making his typical hard contact and spraying the ball to all fields. His line drive rate is low, but that's probably a small sample fluke. His .118 BABIP is guaranteed to regress upwards. Going forward, I see no reason why he won't post his normal .284 BABIP. More importantly for tonight, he's opposite Fister.

 

8 – Enrique Hernandez – OF – Los Angeles (FanDuel $3,000)

 

It's not a particularly good day for bargain outfielders. Hernandez is one of the good ones. He's up against lefty Wei-Yin Chen. Hernandez should bat leadoff tonight for the Dodgers. He's a career .392/.460/.683 (.441 BABIP) versus southpaws. Chen also has platoon splits, although they're much more modest.

 

9 – Kevin Pillar – OF – Toronto (FanDuel $2,900)

 

The Toronto stack is expensive tonight. Nothing new there. It's worth paying for the big guns against Miguel Gonzalez. Homer prone fly ball pitchers always make for top DFS targets. Pillar is the lone affordable Blue Jay. The aggressive righty has started to show signs of life lately. Over his last three games, he's 6-for-12 with two doubles. Pillar doesn't have platoon splits.

 

10 – Nori Aoki – OF – Seattle (FanDuel $2,800)

 

This one's a stretch, but it completes a tidy Mariners bargain stack against a bad pitcher. Aoki hasn't done a whole lot this season – mostly because he's snake bit. His current .250 BABIP is well below his career .301 rate. He's walking less and striking out more often. I expect everything to regress back to normal Aoki. He'll be a tough out tonight while batting leadoff against Fister.

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.