Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the FanDuel MLB GPP plays!
The game between the Mariners and Reds with some weather concerns, so be sure to check the MLB Weather Page closer to lock for an update on the game’s status.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies - Nola has been brilliant this season for the Philadelphia Phillies. Major League batters are only hitting a .188 off of him and he has racked up 58 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched. Just to give you a better idea of how dominant he has been this year, the 22-year-old has held righties to a .229 wOBA, and lefties to a .206 wOBA, which is just outstanding. Nola also happens to have a great walk rate and a superb ground ball rate. The Atlanta Braves are a terrible offense and Nola should mow them down with ease tonight.
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays - Aaron Sanchez has posted solid numbers for the Toronto Blue Jays this season, holding opponents to a .224 BAA, while striking out 45 batters in 52 innings pitched. Neither lefties nor righties own a wOBA over .300 against him and he continues to limit the damage against himself with a terrific ground ball rate. The Minnesota Twins are having a disappointing offensive season thus far, sitting in the bottom-third of the league versus right handed pitching. They have also been an undisciplined team, with a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate. Sanchez has dominated righties this season and the Twins are predominately right-handed. I would not be surprised to see Sanchez as one of the highest scoring pitchers this evening.
Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers - Kazmir has actually pitched better than his numbers would indicate. Kazmir’s troubles with the long-ball so far this season have inflated his ERA (4.89). However, the Dodgers’ southpaw is not getting hit hard and he is striking out just under a batter per inning (43 Ks in 46 IP). The San Diego Padres have been an offensive disaster this season, sporting a measly .304 wOBA and a strikeout rate over 25% against left-handed pitching. I prefer both Nola and Sanchez, but Kazmir has similar much upside at a better price.
Miguel Montero, Chicago Cubs – Jake Peavy’s numbers continue to get worse every year and that trend has continued this season. Peavy has been blasted by lefties in 2016 (.379 BA, .464 wOBA) and the Cubs happen to be loaded with left-handed power. Dollar for dollar, Montero is my top GPP catcher.
Jason Castro, Houston Astros - Unless you are brand new to Daily Fantasy Baseball, you know that we love to attack Colby Lewis with left-handed hitters. Lewis has actually pitched quite well thus far, but lefties remain his kryptonite. Castro has started to heat up offensively and he should continue to produce in this one.
Lucas Duda, New York Mets – Wily Peralta has been a complete disaster this season, as evident by his 7.30 ERA and .375 BAA. Left-handed hitters have tattooed Peralta over the years and he will certainly get smacked around in Citi Field tonight. Duda has been on a cold streak of late, but a matchup versus Gas Can Wily Peralta is just what the doctor ordered.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies - Matt Wisler has pitched really well this season, but this is still a guy we can attack with hitters from the left side of the plate. Wisler has allowed a .373 wOBA to lefties in his career and balls tend to fly out ofCitizensBankPark with ease. Howard is best unleashed against right-handed pitching and he is a great power source at a discounted price.
Derek Dietrich, Miami Marlins - Tanner Roark has been very good this season overall for the Washington Nationals. He has only been touched up four times this year and three of those outings have come at the hands of the Miami Marlins. Sometimes a team just has your number. Dietrich crushes right-handed pitching (.383 wOBA VS RHP in 2016) and he has hit Roark hard in his career (3-9 with a double, homer and four RBIs), albeit in a very small sample size.
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Dodgers - Christian Friedrich is an average pitcher at best and right-handed batters have had a lot of success against him in his brief Major League career (.384 wOBA). Although we do need to consider that he called Coors Field home until this season. Regardless, I am not afraid to pick on him. Kendrick is priced down across the industry and as long as he continues to hit in the middle of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ batting order, he should see plenty of RBI opportunities.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs – There are a few reasons why I expect Bryant and the Chicago Cubs offense to be low percentage owned in tournaments tonight. The Cubs offense is running cold and their prices are still very high, not to mention teams playing on the West Coast seem to get overlooked. Despite this, I suggest you get some exposure to the Cubbies this evening. Jake Peavy is lost right now (7.43 ERA, .324 BAA) and right-handed hitters have punished him this season (.382 wOBA).
Valbuena is a boom-or-bust player, but at his price, I am willing to roll the dice on him in a few lineups.
Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals – The secret is out, Diaz can rake. The 24-year-old Cuban is having a fantastic season, hitting for both average (.372) and power (21 extra base hits). We should also note he has done most of this while hitting at the bottom of the order. Although last night we saw him in the two-hole and let’s hope that it remains that way again this evening. Patrick Corbin has shut down lefties this season, but righties have given him fits. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ southpaw has allowed eight home runs and a .356 wOBA to right-handed hitters so far this season.
Marcus Semien, Oakland A’s - C.C. Sabathia returns form the DL tonight and this is good news for right-handed hitters everywhere, especially those inOakland. Righties have murdered Sabathia over the last few years and that should continue to be the case moving forward. If you are looking to punt shortstop with home run upside, Semien is a solid option.
Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates – It took a while, but Polanco is now rolling at the plate. The 24-year-old Dominican has compiled nine hits in his last four contests, with six of those hits going for extra bases. Eddie Butler is an average pitcher at best and the lefties have hit him hard in his brief career (.343 BA, .450 wOBA). Polanco is blistering hot and he has jack-and-a-bag upside in this prime matchup.
Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera, Chicago White Sox - Dillon Gee has done a decent job thus far for the Kansas City Royals, but he has been vulnerable to lefties throughout his career and this year is no exception (.379 wOBA). I expect the Chicago White Sox to fly under the radar tonight and I think both Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera have sneaky upside.
Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals - Jose Quintana has been lights-out this season and even though he is facing a tough offense, I am not looking to pick on him. However, there is one Kansas City Royals bat that intrigues me. Lorenzo Cain feasts on left-handed pitching (.392 wOBA) and he not only gets a nice park boost, but he has also had success versus Quintana (.319 BA in 47 ABs). The upside is there and we know he will not be popular in tournaments.
St. Louis Cardinals Outfield – With Patrick Corbin’s struggles versus right-handed batters, the Cardinals outfield makes a sneaky stack. All three of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday have multi-homer potential and we should see them highly under-owned tonight.