With a game in Coors and some other weak pitchers going, there should be plenty of runs tonight. There are plenty of games to choose from on a busy Saturday night, so let’s take a look at some of the top plays at every position on FanDuel. Be sure to check the starting lineups to make sure your preferred plays are going to take the field!
Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals, $11,000 – There are three pitchers that are in their own tier tonight: Cueto, Chris Archer and Jake Arrieta. Archer has been incredible all year long and brings a ton of upside to the table with his high strikeout rate. However, pitching in the heat in Texas is a scary proposition and games in Arlington have been producing some really high run totals, so he’s a GPP only guy for me. Arrietta and Cueto are very close, but I’ll give the slight edge to Cueto, but certainly wouldn’t fault you if you go Arrieta. He’s in his pitcher-friendly home park and is the bigger favorite to pick up the win at -167, according to the Vegas MLB odds. He pitched very well in his last start against the Tigers, and the Angels’ bats have gone cold as they’ve scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games.
Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks, $6,700 – There’s a game in Coors tonight as well as plenty of bad pitchers, so it’s a night where you might want to load up on some bats in tournaments. He’s not a guy I’d use in cash games, but if you’re looking to load up on hitting Corbin is my favorite play at sub $7,000. He still isn’t back to where he was prior to his Tommy John surgery, but he has a solid K/9 of 8.92, is a solid favorite at -135, and the Braves have a low team total at 3.41 runs.
John Jaso, Tampa Bay Rays, $2,500 – As a Texan I’m ready to fast forward to October because this heat is brutal, however, as a DFS player, the heat is something to take advantage of as it creates a great hitting environment in Arlington. The Rays will be great hitting a great park shift and have the fourth-highest team total on the late slate, which is very high for them. Jaso has been leading off against righties, and offers great value against Colby Lewis, who has struggled against lefties his entire career.
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles, $4,900 – He’s very expensive, but he’s by far my favorite GPP/contrarian option on the night. Due to his price tag, he’s likely to be fairly low owned and if players do spend up for a player they are likely to target the game in Coors. However, Davis has easily just as much upside as those players in Coors, if not more, at a lower ownership level. He’s locked in at the plate as he’s homered in four of his last five games, and now gets Chris Bassitt. Bassitt has pitched well at home in his pitcher-friendly home park, but he’s due for some regression, and this game is in hitter-friendly Baltimore. He’s allowed a 50% fly ball rate and 31% hard hit rate to lefties this year and I think Davis takes advantage of those numbers in a small ballpark.
Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers, $3,500 – Lind is a great cash and GPP play at $3,500 and will likely be very popular. The Brew Crew draw one of the top matchups on the board as they face Jerome Williams, who is getting hammered by both righties and lefties. Williams has actually shown reverse splits this year, but he’s still allowing a .348 wOBA to lefties, and Lind has crushed righties at home this year for a .414 wOBA.
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins, $3,500 – In terms of cash games, this Minnesota/Cleveland game is a great target as there are two very questionable pitchers taking the mound in Josh Tomlin and Tyler Duffey. The game has a total of 9 and, unlike Coors, the prices of the players aren’t inflated. Dozier got the night off last night but should be back in there tonight to face Tomlin. Tomlin was average at AAA this year and has been unimpressive in his MLB career. He’s particularly struggled with righties at the MLB level allowing a .370 wOBA and 1.32 home runs per nine.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros, $3,500 – I obviously prefer Altuve against a lefty, but anytime his price tag starts creeping down to the $3,500, he is worth of a long look. Justin Verlander has been tough to peg as he’s been very up and down. He certainly isn’t close to the pitcher we’ve seen in the past and Vegas likes the Astros tonight as they have a 4.32 run total. Over the last two years, Verlander actually has reverse splits so the Houston righties are certainly in play, and Altuve offers solid stolen base potential as well.
Jose Reyes, Colorado Rockies, $3,500 – Reyes is one of the more affordable Coors Field bats today and fills a tough position so he’s a great target. Reyes should be leading off and Cashner just hasn’t been the same pitcher that we’ve seen in the past. He’s especially struggled against lefties as he’s allowing a .388 wOBA and 1.87 home runs per nine, which is backed up by 42% fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate. Reyes is a much better hit from the left side of the plate and also offers some stolen base upside.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians, $3,100 – The Indians draw a nice matchup with Tyler Duffey, who struggled in his first start, and isn’t expected to pitch heavy innings so they should also see plenty of the average Minnesota bullpen. The Indians' offense is really depleted without Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley so it’s hard to figure out who to target, but Lindor has been swinging a very hot bat. He’s hitting second for the Tribe and has multi-hit games in six of eight games, including a nine-game hit streak overall.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins, $3,500 – Sano finally got the price bump on FanDuel, which should drop his ownership levels somewhat. The Twins check in with the third-highest team total on the late slate so they’re a great Coors Field pivot at a lower price points. Sano is due for some regression against righties as does have a .442 BABIP, however that regression doesn’t look like it will come tonight against Josh Tomlin. As mentioned, Tomlin has struggled with righties at the MLB level, and Sano has hammered them for a 48% hard hit rate which has translated into a .450 wOBA as well as that high BABIP.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies, $4,800 – The Rockies' top four hitters look to be in a good spot tonight. The Rockies will likely lead off with Reyes, Blackmon and Gonzalez as their top three and given Cashner’s struggles against lefties that should mean Arenado has plenty of RBI opportunities from the cleanup spot. He’s broken out of his slump with home runs in two straight games and has launched 27 of his 29 home runs against right-handed pitching.
Khris Davis, Milwaukee Brewers, $3,000 – I don’t care if they spell it with a K or a C, just give all the C(K)hris Davis tonight. I noted Jerome Williams reverse splits earlier so guys like Davis, Braun and Lucroy are certainly in play. Williams has allowed a .396 wOBA and 2.63 home runs per nine to righties as well as a 33.8 hard hit rate. I prefer to target Davis against lefties, but he’s cheap and has started to come around at the plate with five home runs over his last eight games, and Williams' numbers against righties are horrible.
Coors Field – Their prices are really juiced so you’ll have to save at pitching if you’re looking to fit them in. With their price points, I actually don’t think they’re must plays, especially when you consider San Diego has been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and Jonathan Gray has looked solid so far. However, it is Coors Field, the two teams have the highest team totals on the slate, and once Gray leaves the Rockies terrible bullpen will likely get smoked. I prefer the Colorado lefties slightly and would rank them as follows: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Justin Upton and then Matt Kemp. If you’re not stuffing them in cash games, which I believe isn’t a must, then I would get one GPP stack to get exposure to this game.
Ender Inciarte, $2,600 – Mike Foltynewicz has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on this year as he’s allowed a high home run rate and has been hit hard by both righties and lefties. He’s allowed a .402 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 1.82 home runs per nine to lefties. I really like David Peralta as well, and think the top six of Arizona are all in play. However, I’ll the $1,400 and go with Inciarte here as he should be leading off and has piled up five hits in his last two games.