It’s the last day of the regular season, and outside of the wild card, basically everything has been decided. That means we can expect plenty of starters to sit and can expect plenty of weird lineups. It’s really important to pay attention to lineups to possibly find some value bats with cheap prices at FanDuel, or in the alternative, to bump up a pitcher who is playing a watered down lineup.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – $10,600 – The AL Wild Card is still not decided, and the Tigers can stay in the chase with a win combined with a Baltimore or Toronto loss. That means we can project Verlander for a long leash here, which is something we aren’t able to say for the majority of starters today. He’s coming off two dominant starts and will face an Atlanta offense that has struggled to piece together runs all season long. Las Vegas also seems to like him, as he’s a -150 favorite and the Braves have the third-lowest projected run total on the slate.
Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants – $8,000 – I’m playing it safe with pitching today and just rolling with the guys, who have something on the line. The Giants need a win to lock up the wild card over the Cardinals, and while Moore has been volatile, he has flashed tournament-winning upside. The Dodgers crushed him just two starts ago, but he also almost had a no-hitter against them back on August 25. The matchup is also there as the Dodgers are dead last in wOBA against LHB this season, so I really like Moore as a tournament option.
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – $2,800 – It’s hard enough picking catchers on normal Sundays, as it’s typically a rest day, and it’s even more so on the last day of the regular season. Castillo has sat two of the last three games, so hopefully that means he’s ready to go for the season finale. The matchup is great for Arizona, as they check in with the top non-Coors field projected total at 5.23 runs in their matchup with Paul Clemens. Clemens is getting a big negative park shift and has been crushed by RHB for a .405 wOBA this season and .393 for his career.
Outside of Castillo, I’ll likely just be looking to whoever gets the start at catcher for the Brewers and Rockies to possibly get more exposure to the game at Coors, or I’ll roll with Yadier Molina, as the Cardinals are still battling for a Wild Card spot.
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks – $3,900 – I’ll roll with another Arizona RHB to attack those terrible reverse splits of Paul Clemens. It’s great to see that Goldy is still playing hard, as he stole three bases last night and then homered the night before. I love that he brings the rare stolen base upside from first base to the table.
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles – $3,000 – There’s a lot of uncertainty out there today, but the Orioles need to win, so we can rely on their regulars. Davis is very affordable and is facing a young RHP in Luis Cessa, who has struggled with power so far in his young career. He’s allowing 2.3 HR/9 to LHB this year, as well as a 38 percent fly ball rate and 40 percent hard hit rate. I also think you can look to Brandon Moss as the Cardinals will roll with their regulars as well.
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals – $3,700 – The Cardinals have to have a win, and lucky for them, they are facing Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong is on his last legs as an MLB starter and has been crushed by LHB over the past few years. He’s allowed a .397 wOBA to LHB this year, and Carpenter should be leading off for a focused Cardinals’ team.
Ryan Schimpf, San Diego Padres – $3,400 – Hopefully, Schimpf is back in the lineup, as he’s had a few days off, but that just goes back to having to check every lineup today. I’m really just looking to Carpenter today, but Schimpf is getting an extreme park boost heading to Arizona and will have the platoon advantage on a young RHP in Matt Koch. Koch pitched well in his first start but had some BABIP luck as his xFIP is 5.84, and his minor league numbers are very average so the Padres should be able to do some damage.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies – $4,300 – Tyler Cravy, who threw two innings recently, is going to get the start for the Brewers, and the plan is for today to be a bullpen day. This is not a good Milwaukee bullpen so I’ll just fire up the top Rockies bats and not really worry about splits. Arenado has been elite at home and the Rockies team total is sitting at just over 6.0 runs, so they are definitely a team to grab exposure to once we see their lineup.
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles – $3,300 – If I’m not going Coors or Arizona, then I’m trying to stick with offenses that are still playing for something and in a good spot like the Orioles and Cardinals. Machado has been slumping, but he homered last night, so hopefully that gets him going. He’s hit RHP very well throughout his career and for the BvP fans he’s 2-for-3 off of Cessa with two home runs.
Also Consider – Jonathan Villar
Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals – $3,400 – I’m not in love with the shortstop position today and it’s already been announced that Carlos Correa is expected to sit. I like the fact that the Cardinals offense is still playing for something, and I like the matchup with Vogelsong. I prefer to target him with LHB, but Diaz has been terrific against fellow RHB this year with a .395 wOBA.
Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs – $2,300 – There’s no guarantee he’ll make the lineup as the Cubs have been locked into playoff seeding for a while now. However, he’s basically minimum-price and is too talented for this price, so if he’s in there, I think he’s a good punt against a bad pitcher in Robert Stephenson.
As long as the Rockies and Brewers roll out their normal lineup, fire up the big bats of Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, and Charlie Blackmon if you can squeeze them in, and Domingo Santana and Hernan Perez are in play as well. Outside of Coors Field, I’m also eyeing Yasmany Tomas, the Baltimore outfield, and Jose Bautista. The matchup isn’t great for the Blue Jays against David Price, but the Red Sox aren’t playing for anything and Bautista has actually crushed Price in his career (20-for-58 with six home runs).
Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – $2,700 – Tomas was scratched Friday night but played Saturday night, so we’ll have to watch closely if he’s in there. He looked fine last night as he launched a home run and produced 28 FD points. If he’s in there, I love this value as he provides big power for just $2,700, and as mentioned above, RHB have crushed Paul Clemens.
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles – $3,300 – If things get weird with MLB starting lineups today, which they will, then we can always fall back on the Baltimore outfield. Trumbo has elite power with 47 home runs on the season and is finishing the season strong. He’s a streaky hitter and has rattled off seven hits in his last 13 at-bats, and this is a very affordable price for with his power against a young pitcher in Luis Cessa.
Also Consider- St. Louis outfield