We have a very interesting four-game main slate on FanDuel tonight. Usually we don’t have a lot of choices on these small slates, but that’s not the case here. We have some solid pitching options, and three of the four games are in good hitting environments.
Kenta Maeda, LAD, $9,100 – I could easily put Fernandez here, but I actually like Maeda a lot tonight. This game has the lowest total on MLB odds board and should be the lowest scoring game on the night. Maeda has a 11.9% swinging strike rate and a very impressive 50% ground ball rate on the season. We have to worry about Giancarlo Stanton, but I’m not really worried about the rest of the lineup for the Marlins. They have the third-lowest ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and they have a 19.9% strikeout rate.
Clay Buchholz, BOS, $9,100 – I don’t think Fernandez is a bad play tonight, but I’m going elsewhere for the most part. Buchholz is very inconsistent but he’s also the biggest favorite on the board tonight. The Braves are a team people don’t target because they don’t strike out, but that is totally wrong. This team is completely different than last season, and they’re striking out at a 21.3% rate against righties. They also have the third-lowest wOBA and the second-lowest wRC+ against righties. I’m giving Buchholz one more chance here.
Other Options: Jose Fernandez
Caleb Joseph, BAL, $2,000 – Catcher is awful on this slate, and I’m completely fine with just punting it tonight. Joseph isn’t a big power guy, and he’s not likely to score you double-digit fantasy points. He does however have hits in four of his last five games, and he has a plus matchup tonight. Danks is allowing a .356 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2015.
David Ortiz, BOS, $3,500 – Ortiz just continues to hit, and he comes in with multi-hits in four of his last six games. I don’t know if the season will wear him down, but right now, I’m going to keep playing him. Chacin has pitched well this season, but he’s in a tough spot against the Red Sox tonight. He’s allowing a .335 wOBA with a 31.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters throughout his career. I like the new cutter for Chacin, but I don’t like it enough to fade the Red Sox here.
Brett Lawrie, CWS, $2,700 – On a four-game slate, you have to take some chances, and you have to be different than others. Pedroia is off to a hot start this season, and he’s coming off a monster game. He will likely be very highly owned in cash games, but I think we can look elsewhere in tournaments. I’m going to pick on Wilson in a few spots tonight, and Lawrie is one of those guys. Wilson has a very low swinging strike rate in 49 career innings, and his SIERA is much higher than his ERA. Lawrie is usually only looked at against lefties, but he gets a solid matchup with a good lineup spot here.
Matt Carpenter, STL, $4,100 – I see a lot of people playing Machado tonight, but I won’t be one of those people. Machado is much better against right-handed pitching, and I don’t think this is the spot to pay up for him. Carpenter on the other hand is in a great spot and ballpark for him. Rubby de la Rosa has a .402 wOBA with a 30.8% hard contact rate to lefties dating back to last season. His HR/FB rating is 16.9%, and he’s allowing a 37.7% flyball rate in that span. I really like the lefties for the Cardinals tonight, but Carpenter is by far my favorite cash player on the slate.
J.J. Hardy, BAL, $2,800 – Some people believe in BvP, and some people say it’s too random to look into. Hardy is 9-for-25 with a 1.069 OPS against Danks in his career, and I feel like this is a great spot to target him. I already mentioned above how bad Danks is against righties, and Hardy has already proven that he can hit him. Hardy isn’t a guy I typically target, but I just have a good feeling about playing him in this matchup tonight.
David Peralta, ARI, $3,400 – Betts is the top play in the outfield for me in cash, but I wanted to write up Peralta here. I’m expecting a lot of people to be off Peralta because of the matchup with Wacha. Vegas have this game sitting at the highest total, and this is one of the best ballparks in baseball to target hitters in. Wacha has been solid against lefties dating back to last season, but he’s allowing a pretty high hard contact rate to lefties. Peralta is an upside play, and I’m projecting him to be around 20% owned. In 350 at-bats at home against a righty, Peralta is hitting .340 with a .384 OBP.
Adam Eaton, CWS, $3,100 – Eaton is a guy that I like a lot for cash games tonight, and I wouldn’t rule him out in GPPs either. Eaton had a very cold start last season, but finished strong. He hit .294 against righties, and all 14 of his home runs were against right-handed pitching. I don’t like Tyler Wilson tonight, and he has a very low strikeout rate against lefties. Eaton, hitting at the top of the order on the road, should see at least four at bats in this game.