Tonight we have a very small five-game slate, so it’s a great night to play tournaments. We don’t have any safe pitching options, but we do have some risky upside plays. I’m going to focus on tournaments, and give out my favorite targets for large field GPPs on FanDuel.
As always, make sure you check the MLB weather before locking in your final team.
Matt Wisler, ATL, $6,500 – When you look at Wisler’s career numbers, you’re going to run the other direction from this pick. However, his HR/9 is down this season, and his wOBA is .263 compared to his .354 wOBA last season. The Braves used a lot of arms in the bullpen last night, and whether it is good or bad, Wisler should have a longer leash tonight. The Brewers are striking out at a 27.6% clip against right-handed pitching this season. The upside is there for Wisler, but he’s very far from a safe option tonight.
Lance McCullers, HOU, $8,000 – Gausman should be the highest owned pitcher tonight, and in a tournament, I’m completely okay with avoiding him tonight. If he gets rocked, McCullers should benefit from the run support and pick up the win. Baltimore is a very boom or bust offense; the boom makes McCullers a very risky option. McCullers owns a career 3.51 xFIP with a 9.9% swinging strike rate. I don’t expect a lot of people to be on McCullers tonight, and he’s the type of guy that could win you a tournament tonight.
Evan Gattis, HOU, $3,000 – With taking McCullers, I’m going to take a couple of the Houston bats as well. Gausman owns a .360 wOBA with a 16.7% HR/FB ratio to right-handed hitters dating back to last season. Since returning from AAA, Gattis has at least one hit in seven of eight games, and he has a home run in four of those games. His price is starting to catch up with his production, but he’s been a great play for over a week now.
Other Options: Dioner Navarro
Jose Abreu, CWS, $3,600 – Before I get into why I like Abreu, this is the only game with weather concerns for tonight, so make sure it’s okay before playing him. Abreu was extremely cold, and he was 2-for-20 at one point. He’s six for his last eight, and he’s starting to hit the ball hard again. Abreu is a massive power upside guy, and he gets to face a left-handed pitcher tonight. Abreu is slugging .579 in 22 career at-bats against Duffy.
Daniel Murphy, WAS, $4,100 – If Murphy were named Trout or Harper, he would be well over 5k on FanDuel. He’s hitting .394 this season, and he comes in with multiple hits in five of his last seven games. For some reason, everyone tends to overlook Murphy, but I love this spot for him tonight. Leake is a groundball pitcher, but he doesn’t induce a lot of soft contact to left-handed hitters. Leake has allowed the most home runs to left-handed hitters out of all ten pitchers on this slate dating back to the start of last season.
Other Options: Jose Altuve, Chase d’Arnaud
Nolan Arenado, COL, $4,000 – I don’t expect a lot of people to stack the Rockies, but they’re my favorite stack on this slate tonight. Buchholz has name value, but he’s not pitching well this season. His xFIP is up two points, and his hard contact rate is up over 6% from last season. Everyone forgets that Arenado hit 41 home runs in 2015. He’s right back to it this season, and nine of his 14 homers have come against right-handed pitching.
Carlos Correa, HOU, $3,900 – I wanted to put Xander Bogaerts here, but he hurt his thumbnail tagging Cargo at second last night. As a Red Sox fan, I was super worried when he came out of the game, and I’m glad it wasn’t anything serious. Like I mentioned above with Gattis, I’m going to target right-handed hitters against Gausman. Correa has a .358 wOBA with a .205 ISO against right-handed pitching since being called up last season.
Charlie Blackmon, COL, $4,100 – I like Harper a lot tonight, but I expect a lot of people to play him. It’s not the wrong play by any means. But, I love the lefties for the Rockies tonight. In 2015, Buchholz allowed a .268 wOBA with a 3.01 xFIP against left-handed hitters. He’s allowing a .393 wOBA with a 6.18 xFIP to left-handed hitters this season. Blackmon looks great at the plate right now, and he’s one of my favorite plays on this slate.
Jarrod Dyson, KAN, $3,000 – Like I said with Abreu, check the weather in this game. Dyson is one of my favorite plays on this slate, and he’s going to make me a lot of money or crush my night. He’s hot at the plate right now, no one ever plays Royals, no one plays nine hitters, and no one will play a nine hitter for the Royals. Dyson has double-digit fantasy points in four straight starts, and he has a SB in two of the last three. In case you’re a BVP guy, Dyson is 7-for-8 against Gonzalez.