Tonight we have a tiny three-game slate. Let’s dive into the top FanDuel picks at each position.
Jacob deGrom, NYM, $10,000 – With only three games, pitching is going to be very important on tonight’s slate. The Marlins have a very weak offense, so this is a great bounce-back spot for deGrom. He’s allowed 25 hits and 12 ERs over his last two starts, but everything fell for the offenses in both of those games, so deGrom was a little unlucky. He still comes in with a 2.96 ERA and a very solid 10.7% swinging strike rate this season. Yelich and Realmuto are the only two guys with a wOBA over .320 against right-handed pitching this season.
Jose Urena, MIA, $6,200 – This is strictly a game theory play. Urena is the biggest underdog on the MLB odds board, but this game has the lowest total on the slate. Pitching is so weak this evening, meaning a lot of people will turn to deGrom. In GPPs, I like the idea of playing the low owned guy. Urena has thrown 54 innings this season, and he’s struggled with hard contact. With Walker going down for the season, the Mets continue to have a weak bottom half of the order. I worry about Cespedes, Bruce, and Granderson, but not enough to avoid Urena in some GPPs tonight.
Buster Posey, SFG, $3,500 – I’ve been paying up more and more for catching, and it’s really been working for me. Posey is in an excellent spot against the lefty tonight, and I think he’s a great cash game option. Montgomery has a .304 wOBA with a very low 23.1% hard contact rate against righties. The hard contact rate being so low worries me a little, but not enough on this three-game slate. Posey has a .379 wOBA with a very good 10.6% strikeout rate against lefties this season. He also has a OBP over .400 against southpaws.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC, $4,100 – It really comes down to Rizzo and Abreu at first base tonight, and I think Rizzo has a lot more upside in this matchup. Samardzija is guy I’m going to pick on tonight, and I hope his name value lowers the ownership of the Cubs. He comes in with a .336 wOBA against lefties with a 1.39 WHIP. Rizzo has a .270 ISO with a .984 OPS against righties this season. He also has a very impressive .408 wOBA against righties.
Brian Dozier, MIN, $3,700 – Dozier is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate tonight, as he presents a lot of upside in this matchup. While Quintana has a solid .294 wOBA allowed against righties, he’s still giving up a lot of hard contact, and this is a really good ballpark for right-handed power. Dozier finished August with 13 home runs after only hitting 14 home runs in the entire first half. He also has a .370 ISO with a 41.6% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching this season.
Todd Frazier, CWS, $3,300 – I don’t love third base tonight, so I’ll try to pay up for Bryant where I can. Unless you go cheap at pitcher, it’s really hard to stack up all the top bats. Frazier has been one of the biggest boom or bust players in the majors this season, but I’m willing to take a shot on him tonight. It’s a three-game slate and you have to make a stand somewhere. Frazier has 24 home runs against righties this season, and Santana gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. Like I mentioned above, this is also a good ballpark for right-handed power.
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM, $3,000 – Urena has struggled with lefties, as he’s allowing a .360 wOBA in a small sample size this season. Meanwhile, Cabrera comes in with four multi-hit games in his last five starts. With the news about Walker, Cabrera should continue to hit second for the Mets. His stats aren’t anything to write home about this season, but I tend to play hot streaks a lot more than most, and he’s hot right now.
Yoenis Cespedes, NYM, $3,900 – If I’m paying up for one outfielder tonight, Cespedes is the guy I want in my lineup. He comes in with a massive .266 ISO and a .374 wOBA against righties this season. He has a 39% hard contact rate, and he’s hit 21 home runs against righties. Like I mentioned when I wrote up Urena, he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. If I had to call a home run tonight, Cespedes would be that guy for me.
Robbie Grossman, MIN, $3,000 – Grossman is dealing with an oblique injury, so make sure he’s back in the lineup tonight. He was available off the bench on Wednesday, and I think there’s a good chance he returns to the lineup tonight. He’s quietly crushing left-handed pitching this season, and he’s always a very low owned option. He has a .422 wOBA with a .990 OPS against lefties this season. Grossman is a pretty safe cash game option tonight, considering he has a .429 OBP with a .347 AVG against lefties.
Michael Conforto, NYM, $2,500 – Conforto will be recalled on Thursday, and I hope he’s back in the lineup tonight. He’s hitting right at .500 over the last two weeks in AAA, and he draws a great matchup against Urena. September call-ups are always a lot of fun, but we already know what Conforto is capable of doing. Conforto has a .337 wOBA with a 44.9% hard contact rate in 220 ABs against righties this season. I’m hoping he fixed his issues in AAA and that he comes back up hot tonight.