Tuesday brings us a full 15-game night slate, and it’s one that doesn’t look like it’ll disappoint. This is easily the strongest group of SPs we’ve seen outside of Opening Day, and that coupled with another game in Coors should make this a really interesting night of baseball on FanDuel.
David Price ($9,400) – Clayton Kershaw is the easy choice if cap space isn’t an issue, but that’s never the case in daily fantasy baseball. He’s a fine play if you can find a way to comfortably work him in, but I’ll be taking the savings that come along with Price. The lefty has had some ups and downs early in the season (two dominant outings and two underwhelming performances), but he’s missing bats at a very high clip (16.0 SwStr%) and it’s showing with his 32 Ks in just 21 IP. The Braves don’t strike out a ton, but they also possess very little pop and Price has the built-in advantage of getting to face the opposing pitcher rather than the DH. The Red Sox are healthy favorites (-172) on the MLB odds board, which bodes well for his shot at the win, something that is vital on FanDuel.
Kyle Hendricks ($7,300) – For those looking to spend heavily on bats, Kyle Hendricks is your outlet. He’ll get his easiest test of the season tonight (he’s faced off with ARI, STL and COL already this year) against an offensively challenged Brewers team that possesses no real power potential from the left side of the plate. Hendricks is a heavy favorite (-200) in a game with a total of 7, so Vegas clearly has some confidence in the right-hander. His peripherals are more or less in line with last season, although his LOB% (56.1) is unsustainably low, which bodes well for his upside against a strikeout prone Brewers lineup.
Brian McCann ($3,400) – It’s kind of incredible that A.J. Griffin is 2-0 with an ERA right around 3.00 considering how he’s pitched so far. He owns a fairly pedestrian 8.4 SwStr% and is relying on a very low BABIP (.220) to keep his ERA from ballooning, something that is almost inevitable considering he’s allowing a lot of hard contact to both right and left-handed hitters (at least a 32.0 hard% to each). McCann has plenty of pop against RHP (.212 ISO in 2015) and if Griffin comes crashing back to earth tonight, expect McCann to have his hand in the action.
Stephen Vogt ($2,700) – The A’s are going to be a great source of value this evening against Mike Pelfrey, and a team stack can make it much easier to afford a high-end arm like Clayton Kershaw. Vogt should be right in the middle of the lineup against Pelfrey and his porous 7.5 SwStr% and 11.3% K-rate. Pelfrey’s inability to record strikeouts should bode well for a guy like Vogt, who struck out at about a 20% clip against RHP last season. Vogt finished 2015 with a healthy .377 wOBA, .261 ISO and 37.5 hard% when facing RHs on the road.
Mark Teixeira ($3,200) – Tex’s price is far too low given the matchup. His power numbers against RHP have been really strong dating back to the beginning of last year (.339 ISO in 2015), and I’ve already mentioned a few reasons why I’m expecting a blowup from A.J. Griffin in Arlington. Griffin has struggled with LHBs so far this year (2 HRs, 4 BBs in 8.1 IP) and his nature as a fly-ball pitcher won’t serve him well against Teixeira.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) – There isn’t a hitter in the league as hot as Rizzo right now. He’s homered five times in his last five games and while I’m not usually a fan of chasing points, Rizzo is in a strong matchup with Jimmy Nelson who is currently dealing with some HR issues of his own (5 HRs allowed to LHs already this year). Nelson also struggled with LHs last season (.376 wOBA allowed, 5.05 FIP), and there isn’t much reason to expect him to shut down Rizzo this evening. I don’t expect him to carry a high ownership percentage given the number of viable plays in the mid-$3K range, so he’s a very strong GPP target.
Jason Kipnis ($3,300) – Kipnis is one of my favorite second basemen to target in cash games; he rarely leaves you with a zero and can contribute in nearly every stat category from atop the Indians lineup. He’s off to a nice start against RHP (.429 wOBA, .212 ISO) and is hitting the ball hard with consistency (41.4 hard%), both of which will work in his favor against Ricky Nolasco. The veteran RH has pitched well thus far in 2016, but he’s got a career ERA nearly a run higher than his current estimators, so some regression is surely on the way.
Jed Lowrie ($2,300) – I’ll admit that there is absolutely nothing exciting about rostering Jed Lowrie; he possesses little power and isn’t the type of player that can explode for a GPP winning performance on any given night. There aren’t any numbers from the past two years that will make you run to roster him, but Lowrie is projected to hit in the clean-up spot tonight on the road against Mike Pelfrey, and that alone makes him a viable target at $2,300. The A’s should hang a crooked number on Pelfrey and Lowrie will almost surely have some ABs with runners in scoring position.
David Freese ($3,400) – Coors Field wasn’t terribly friendly to the DFS community last night (unless you faded the Rockies!), and tonight’s matchup looks like it could be a rather underwhelming one given the pitching matchup. Freese is one of a few hitters in favorable spots, as he’ll almost certainly slot into the three-hole against LH Jorge De La Rosa. The lefty allowed a .358 wOBA and 34.1 hard% to RH bats at home last season, and he hasn’t gotten off to a strong start this season (.456 wOBA allowed to RHs), so Freese is still worth a long look as one of the cheaper RH bats in the Pirates lineup.
Chris Coghlan ($2,600) – It’s a little disappointing to see Coghlan no longer listed as an OF, but his 3B eligibility doesn’t take him out of play by any means. Assuming he’s slotted somewhere in the top five of the A’s lineup, he’s a great target against Mike Pelfrey and the Tigers. Coghlan has turned his strong 2015 season with Chicago (.355 wOBA, .212 ISO, 16 HRs vs. RHP) into a nearly everyday role (against RHP) with the A’s, and the fact that he’s red hot right now (three HRs over his last five games) makes him a very appealing cash game target at $2,600.
Jordy Mercer ($3,500) – Coors Field is about the only thing that could make me considering paying this price tag for the light-hitting Mercer. The fact that he’s leading off should lead to an extra AB for Mercer, who has hit LHP very well throughout his career despite not possessing much power. He owns a career wOBA of .381 and ISO of .168 against southpaws to go along with a solid 33.2 hard%, and if we inflate those numbers to account for the thin Denver air, Mercer is well worth the $3,500 price tag.
Jimmy Rollins ($2,600) – I’m not a huge BvP fan overall, but I think it’s a much stronger thing to analyze when we’re dealing with gimmicky pitchers like R.A. Dickey. He throws the knuckler almost exclusively, and Rollins has had some success against Dickey over his career; Rollins is 9-27 with 4 2Bs, 1 3B and 1 HR, good for a .438 wOBA. The shortstop should remain in the two-hole behind Abreu and Frazier which provides him with nice run scoring upside, and the $2,600 price tag will aid you in efforts to rostering high-end pitching.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,800) and Starling Marte ($4,400) – I wrote them up together last night and this duo is in an even better spot tonight. Both McCutchen and Marte hit LHP well and hit in the heart of the Pittsburgh lineup, so they should have their hand in the action tonight judging by the very high team total of almost 5.5. If I’m spending up on an outfielder, I’m looking in the direction of these two, with McCutchen being the preferred target (although it’s very close).
Josh Reddick ($3,400) – Continuing with the Oakland theme, Reddick is the highest projected hitter according to the RotoGrinders projections, and his strong numbers against RHP are they key reason for that. He’s off to a great start this season (.401 wOBA, .294 ISO, 4 HRs), and owned similar numbers when facing RHs on the road in 2015 (.368 wOBA, .202 ISO, 10 HRs). As long as Mike Pelfrey remains in the Tigers rotation, I’ll continue to pick on him heavily every fifth day.
Randal Grichuk ($3,300), Stephen Piscotty ($3,000), Matt Holliday ($2,900) and Jeremy Hazelbaker ($2,800) – Matt Holliday left Monday’s game with a cramp and was replaced by Hazelbaker, but I’m perfectly content using whichever one of the two is in the starting lineup. Shelby Miller has been the definition of dreadful this season, posting a 5.5 SwStr% (the lowest among all SPs on the slate) in addition to walking more hitters (11) than he’s struck out (10). He’s managed to allow 14 ERs in 14.2 IP (including 5 HRs, all of which have been hit by RH bats), and the DBacks had considered skipping his start to get a closer look at his mechanics. Something isn’t right with Miller, so let’s continue to expose that with the potent Cardinals lineup.