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FanDuel MLB Plays: Tuesday

by Stephen Keech
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:05 pm ET

It’s another full Tuesday in the MLB with 14 games on the main FanDuel slate, which features the nearly unhittable Jake Arrieta in addition to a number of arms that are worth picking on heavily with opposing bats. We don’t have an active series in Coors just yet, but the offensive options are plentiful with eight games featuring a total of at least eight runs on the MLB odds board.

 

 

 

Starting Pitcher


Jake Arrieta ($12,100) – I’m going to keep this simple. Arrieta has been pitching as well as anyone in the majors since the start of last season and there isn’t a reason to expect that to change in 2016. He’s obviously going to cost you an arm and a leg, but there isn’t a safer target at the pitcher spot. Arrieta is a -195 favorite in a game with a total of 6.5, which tells you all you need to know in regards to how Vegas feels about him.

 

 

Matt Harvey ($9,500) – Harvey finally started to look like his old self in his last start, getting his velocity back up into the mid-90s and shutting down the Reds over six innings. It’s concerning that he’s yet to get through more than six innings in a start this season, but he’ll take on a Braves offense that simply doesn’t possess much pop (2.2 HR/FB% vs. RHs) in a pitcher friendly environment. Harvey is the biggest favorite on the board at -230, and considering the 7.0 total, Vegas is expecting a shutdown performance.

 

 

Matt Moore ($7,600) – Moore is a perfectly suitable option for me in any format. He’s pitched really well to start the season and is finally beginning to look like the top prospect scouts thought he’d be. His 27.1 K% and 11.7 SwStr% illustrate how well he’s done in the strikeout department (35 Ks in 32 IP), and the Dodgers offense isn’t quite as intimidating against LH starters. The Dodgers seem to have more name value than actual value; they are 24th in wOBA (.291) and OPS (.661) vs. LHP. They don’t strike out a ton (18.2% so far this year), but Moore’s bat-missing abilities should cause that number to spike.

 

 

 

Catcher


Welington Castillo ($3,200) – It’s still very early in the season, but Castillo owns a ridiculous .519 ISO and 57.1 hard% vs. LHP (30 PA). While we don’t want to rely on a sample size that small, it’s clear that Castillo is seeing the ball well against southpaws and his 2015 numbers are nothing to sneeze at (.228 ISO, 39.3 hard%). Justin Nicolino stifled the Dodgers in his first start of the season, but he’s certainly not a pitcher we want to avoid with bats. Nicolino recorded just 15 Ks in 59 IP vs. RH bats last season to go along with a 5.59 xFIP, so expect him to come crashing back to earth tonight against the D’Backs.

 

 

Buster Posey ($3,600) – The Giants are a great team target against the Reds once again, this time against RH Jon Moscot. There isn’t anything we can take from Moscot’s performances in 2015 or 2016 that suggest he should be pitching at the major league level. He’s pitched poorly in all three starts this year and currently has more walks (9) than strikeouts (6), something we should never see from a major league pitcher. His 4.9 SwStr% and 8.2 K% further illustrate how heavily we should be considering the Giants bats this evening.

Update: Moscot has been scratched from his start, with John Lamb set to replace him.




First Base


Lucas Duda ($3,200) – We’ll go back to the well with Duda tonight. He posted some video game numbers when facing RHs at home last season (.441 wOBA, .377 ISO), and he’ll take on another beatable righty in New York this evening. Matt Wisler allowed a .419 wOBA to LH bats last season to go along with 10 HRs in 48.2 IP, which lines up very well with Duda’s strengths. Wisler’s 6.85 FIP vs. LHs last year also puts any other Mets lefties in play.

 

 

Brandon Belt ($3,700) – Belt will likely be overlooked tonight with several other appealing options available at similar (or lesser) price tags, but his GPP appeal is evident. I’ve already noted why Jon Moscot doesn’t belong in the big leagues, but let’s touch on why Belt should be able to take advantage. He owned a .368 wOBA, .249 ISO and 44.3 hard% when facing RHs on the road last year, and his presence in the heart of the Giants order should provide him with quite a few run producing opportunities. The Giants are one of the top stacking options on this slate.

Update: Moscot has been scratched from his start, with John Lamb set to replace him.




Second Base


Logan Forsythe ($3,800) – He still doesn’t get the respect he deserves. I’ll admit that I was slow to come around on him last season, but Forsythe has taken the reins as the Rays leadoff hitter and has absolutely mashed southpaws dating back to last year. Forsythe finished with a .405 wOBA and .299 ISO vs. LHP last season, and is off to a strong start this year in a limited sample size (.593 wOBA, .429 ISO, 44.4 hard%). Scott Kazmir was a reverse splits pitcher last season, but that hasn’t been the case over the course of his career and he’s already allowed 4 HRs to RHs (including six BBs) in 15.1 IP.

 

 

Ben Zobrist ($3,300) – Zobrist posted a healthy .398 wOBA and .188 ISO vs. LHP last season and has posted nearly identical numbers to this point in 2016, making him a viable mid-range target against Jon Niese. The Pirates lefty is coming off of a start in Coors which didn’t go particularly well, and while his home park should be a place that he succeeds over the course of the year, I’m not in the business of targeting the Cubs with opposing pitchers. If you aren’t paying up for Forsythe, Zobrist is a fine pivot.

 

 

 

Third Base


Josh Donaldson ($4,800) – Here are Donaldson’s numbers when facing lefties at home last season: .453 wOBA, .373 ISO, 192 wRC+ and 43.8 hard%. Those are elite numbers by basically any standard, and the fact that Donaldson will face off with a lefty that doesn’t miss bats (Martin Perez owns a 11.4 K%) only makes him more appealing. He is well worth the cap space it takes to acquire his services; if I’m picking one bat to spend up on, this is it.

 

 

Matt Duffy ($2,900) – Continuing with the Giants theme, I’d suspect that Duffy will be one of the lower owned options in the heart of this order. He’ll likely hit either 2nd or 3rd depending on the status of Joe Panik, but both spots provide plenty of DFS value. The fact that he’s wedged between guys like Denard Span, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence is almost enough to make him valuable on its own. Duffy is a perfectly fine target in any format.

 

 

 

Shortstop


Carlos Correa ($4,100) – The Astros will face off with Twins rookie Alex Meyer, who will make his first start in the big leagues against a power-filled lineup. Meyer pitched very well at the AAA level before his promotion, but he’s in for a much different test this evening in a hitter-friendly park. Correa has had his share of ups and downs early in the year, but he finished with respectable numbers against RHP last season (.359 wOBA, .209 ISO) and is off to a similar start this year.

 

 

Brandon Crawford ($2,800) – If Crawford hit a little higher in the order, he’d be a guy we’d be targeting regularly in all formats. He may hit in the six spot tonight if Joe Panik needs another day to rest, but Crawford is a very strong target regardless of his lineup spot. The shortstop owns a .378 wOBA and .228 ISO (36.2 hard%) this season and posted similar numbers last year (.341 wOBA, .220 ISO, 33.1 hard%), making his $2,800 price tag seem a tier or two too low. Take advantage of Jon Moscot while he remains in a big league rotation.

Update: Moscot has been scratched from his start, with John Lamb set to replace him.



Outfield


Jose Bautista ($4,100) – Joey Bats should be priced at least a few hundred dollars higher. He’ll take on an average lefty in Rogers Centre, where he put up a .433 wOBA and .296 ISO last season. Martin Perez doesn’t allow many HRs (5 HRs allowed to RHs over his last 80+ IP), but he also doesn’t excel against RH bats by any means (4.39 FIP in 2015, 5.80 FIP so far in 2016). The Jays should tag him for at least a handful of runs, and the team total of over five runs puts basically the entire Jays lineup (mainly RHs) in play.

 

 

Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) – If Donaldson is the one bat I’d be willing to spend big on, Stanton is a very close second. Both players absolutely mash LHP, but Stanton’s numbers were eye-popping last season - .470 wOBA, .525 ISO and 51.3 hard%. If Stanton had more protection around him he’d be far and away the top bat on the board. He’s worth every penny this evening.

 

 

Denard Span ($3,300) – And the Giants train just keeps on rolling. Span has cooled off since his red-hot start to the season, but he’s still in a great spot tonight against Jon Moscot on the road. He’s in a much more hitter-friendly environment and this game being played on the road gives him a better shot at seeing five at-bats. The Giants leadoff man owns a .374 wOBA against RHP this season and should build on that after tonight’s tilt.

Update: Moscot has been scratched from his start, with John Lamb set to replace him.



Value Outfielders – Steve Souza ($2,900), Brett Gardner ($2,900), Adam Jones ($2,700), Carlos Beltran ($2,500), Steve Pearce ($2,300), Jorge Soler ($2,200)

Stephen Keech
Stephen "SBK" Keech is a head-to-head specialist who has shot up to being ranked in the Top 100 for Overall, MLB, NBA, and NHL. SBK’s a lead contributor on RotoGrinders, and can be found on Twitter @StephByronKeech.