It’s a busy night in Major League Baseball with 15 games on the schedule, all of which will be played on FanDuel’s main slate starting at 7:05 ET. It’s yet another night with a stackable Coors game and a bevy of high-end pitching options, which gives us plenty of different routes to take on a full slate. Like last night, we’re dealing with serious weather concerns in a few spots, most notably in Cincinnati and Arlington.
Jon Lester ($11,000) – This one is too obvious so I’m not going into much detail, but assuming the MLB weather isn’t a major concern before lineup lock, Lester is the clear cut top option at SP. Lester has been about as consistent as they come and faces a Padres lineup that strikes out 26.6% of the time against LH pitching. There isn’t a stronger cash game play as long as the weather cooperates.
Adam Conley ($8,400) – I’d feel more comfortable with this one in GPPs. Conley has had some strong fantasy performances this year including a 7.2 IP/7K performance against this Brewers team back on April 29th, but it’s still hard to tell if his success is real. While he’s been doing a great job of limiting the damage against RH bats (.243 wOBA allowed), he’s doing it on the back of some unsustainable numbers, including a 100% LOB rate and a .200 BABIP, numbers that will quickly regress if he’s not able to improve on his 38.1% hard-contact rate allowed to RHs. The Brewers lineup should feature almost all RH bats tonight, although outside of Ryan Braun and Chris Carter, there isn’t much to fear. The upside is certainly there for Conley at this price, but know that he carries a fairly low floor unless he maintains his current strikeout rate.
Once again, I’m not going to recommend anyone from this game in the sections below as that really doesn’t add any value for you guys. Just know that anytime we have two average-to-below-average arms taking the hill in Coors, you’ll want to target that game heavily. The Rockies LH bats are in a great spot against Rubby de la Rosa, while the D’Backs RHs are the strongest plays against Chris Rusin. Make sure to have exposure to this contest in cash games.
Brian McCann ($3,000) – We’re going to back to the well on McCann against another underwhelming RH who has struggled to keep the ball out of the air. Kris Medlen has been getting knocked around so far in 2016, recording just one more strikeout (18) than walks and earned runs allowed (17). He’s allowing a 44.4 FB% to LHs so far (22.2 LD%) and while he’s been better at keeping the ball on the ground in past seasons, a trip to Yankee Stadium could end terribly if he struggles with the long ball. McCann is at his best when facing RH pitching at home (.371 wOBA, .285 ISO last season).
Stephen Vogt ($2,600) – Vogt was also listed in this spot last night, although he’s in an even more favorable position tonight. Sean O’Sullivan will make his first start with the Red Sox, something the A’s hitters are likely salivating over. O’Sullivan allowed a .481 wOBA to LH bats last season, and arguably the biggest stain on his 2015 was the fact that his HRs allowed and strikeout totals against LHs were identical (12 each). Just to reiterate, he allowed 12 HRs to LH bats in 28 IP. He finished 2015 with a 9.35 FIP against LHs, so there isn’t any real reason to fade the A’s this evening.
Edwin Encarnacion ($3,500) – The Giants bullpen must really be getting tired of Matt Cain and Jake Peavy. Both arms have pitched terribly this season and despite the fact that the Blue Jays move to a much more pitcher-friendly environment, they are still a great team to target with Cain on the hill. The Giants RH has allowed a .421 wOBA to RH bats so far in 2016 including 4 HRs allowed in 14.1 IP, and his 35.2 hard% allowed doesn’t inspire much confidence that he’s going to turn things around soon. Cain boasts a very weak 14.5 K% and 7.6 SwStr%, so expect Encarnacion to at the very least hit make solid contact in his couple of ABs against the RH.
Justin Bour ($3,100) – Bour faces off with another below-average RH tonight, as the Brewers will trot out Zach Davies, who has allowed more earned runs than strikeouts so far in 2016. Everyone in the top six of the Marlins order is squarely in play, but Bour is one of the top targets given his career .355 wOBA and .219 ISO against RH pitching. He’s a fine target in any format at this price tag.
Derek Dietrich ($2,800) – He was back in the leadoff spot last night and responded with another solid fantasy performance (21.7 FD points), something he should be able to recreate tonight against Zach Davies. Dietrich owns a very strong .436 wOBA, .273 ISO and 170 wRC+ against RHs in 2016, numbers that make his sub $3K price tag look like an extreme bargain.
Jose Altuve ($4,300) – Altuve is an excellent GPP target this evening with most of the field unlikely to pay that high of a price tag for a bat outside of Coors. He’ll square off with the erratic Trevor Bauer at home, and while Bauer can show flashes of dominance from time to time, he’ll get himself into trouble more often than not. Strikeouts aren’t an issue for Altuve as his K-BB ratio is nearly identical, and although he’s a stronger play against LH pitching, his .415 wOBA and .311 ISO are unbelievable numbers from a guy listed at 5’6. His upside is through the roof in this spot.
Evan Longoria ($3,000) – Longo isn’t thought of in the same regard as he was a few years back, but he still more than holds his own against southpaws. He posted a healthy .398 wOBA, .226 ISO and 159 wRC+ against them in 2015, and he’s off to a similarly strong start this season (.371 wOBA, .257 ISO, 146 wRC+). Wade Miley is one of the most fun LHs to pick on given his propensity to surrender the long ball – he allowed 14 HRs to RHs last year and has given up four already this season in 29 IP. If you aren’t paying the sky high price for Nolan Arenado, Longoria is a fine pivot.
There are several high-end options outside of Coors that represent fine GPP targets. Manny Machado has been better against RH pitching early in his career and takes on rookie Jose Berrios, who has allowed 16 walks/hits through his first nine innings in the bigs. Todd Frazier is the most appealing target of the group given his matchup with Derek Holland, but Josh Donaldson is also in a great spot against the gas can that is Matt Cain.
Xander Bogaerts ($4,000) – I’ve been hesitant to pay this kind of a price for Bogaerts all season long, but as far as GPPs go he’s worth a long look against LH Sean Manaea. The Red Sox have a very appealing team total of almost five, and Bogaerts will be in his usual #3 spot in the order between Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. Bogaerts posted a .389 wOBA against LHs last season and while his power is still a work in progress (.137 career ISO against LHs), he’s been racking up doubles and does a nice job of hitting into the alleys to make up for the lack of HRs. You’ll want to go with one of the two Coors bats (Trevor Story and Jean Segura) in cash games, but Bogaerts is a fine tournament target.
Carlos Correa ($4,100) is a fine target himself, but once we get past him the SS pool dries up quickly. Jonathan Villar is viable at $3,300 against Adam Conley, as is Aledmys Diaz ($3,200) assuming he’s hitting atop the St. Louis order. If you’re looking to go super cheap, Javier Baez ($2,500) is a fine upside target if he’s in the lineup.
Gregory Polanco ($3,400) – Polanco may be my favorite bat outside of Coors Field. He’s been moved up to the #3 spot in the lineup which is absolutely great news for his DFS outlook, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll face off with Alfredo Simon in a hitter-friendly park. Simon has allowed a .532 wOBA to LH bats this season including serving up 5 HRs in just 9 IP, and his 36.7 hard% helps to illustrate why he’s been so bad. Weather is the big issue here as it’s possible this game gets postponed, but assuming it plays, you’ll want ample exposure to Polanco.
Josh Reddick ($3,200) – Remember the notes on O’Sullivan from the Vogt write-up? Those numbers also apply here. Reddick owned a .368 wOBA, .202 ISO and 138 wRC+ when facing RHs away from home last year, numbers that look elite when O’Sullivan’s splits against LHs are taken into account. Target the A’s LHs at will.
Michael Saunders ($3,000) – Saunders has the pleasure of facing off with Matt Cain this evening, and the fact that this game is on the road does give him a better shot at reaching the 5 AB plateau, something that becomes more likely with Cain on the hill. The Jays are going to roll with a platoon system atop the order with Saunders filling the spot against RH pitching, and hitting in front of Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion will give Saunders plenty of opportunity to produce fantasy points.
Other viable options under $4K: Christian Yelich ($3,800), Ian Desmond ($3,400), Brett Gardner ($3,200), Colby Rasmus ($3,100), Billy Burns ($3,000), Miguel Sano ($2,900), Matt Holliday ($2,500), Adam Jones ($2,300), Carlos Beltran ($2,300), Preston Tucker ($2,000)