We have a special birthday edition of the fantasy basketball picks today. I turned 29 years old today, which gives me one more year before my dirty thirty. There are nine games on the schedule with a nice mix of studs and value plays. Hopefully these FanDuel picks will have some good birthday karma coming their way tonight.
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook vs. Dallas Mavericks
Salary $10,700
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game -- Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game -- Season: 48.6 | Last Five Games: 44.0
Westbrook has been incredibly efficient over his last five games, averaging 44 fantasy points in only 28.3 minutes (1.55 FP/minute). In what is expected to be a competitive game tonight against the Mavericks in Dallas, Westbrook could see 35+ minutes of action. He also has a little revenge narrative working for him, as he was thrown out of their last meeting after getting into it with J.J. Barea.
Tyler Johnson vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary $4,300
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game -- Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game -- Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 20.8
I’ve used Johnson in each of the last two games and so far, he has been a big disappointment. I don’t mind going back to the well tonight though, as Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Goran Dragic, and Beno Udrih are all expected to miss the game against the Raptors. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Johnson should see 35+ minutes of action. At his price point, he offers a ton of value.
Shooting Guard
James Harden vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Salary $9,900
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 26.9
Min/Game -- Season: 37.5 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game -- Season: 44.8 | Last Five Games: 42.1
After Dwight Howard was injured in the first minute of the Rockets’ game against the Pistons on Wednesday night, Harden took over. He posted a monster triple-double and ended up scoring well over 70 fantasy points. With Howard out again tonight, Harden is my favorite superstar in this slate. His minutes, usage, and production should all go up tonight against the Bucks.
Khris Middleton vs. Houston Rockets
Salary $7,400
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 22.3
Min/Game -- Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 39.9
FP/Game -- Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 37.8
Middleton has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 37.8 fantasy points in close to 40 minutes per contest. Jason Kidd is giving him all of the minutes that he can handle and he has really responded well. In addition to the great form, Middleton also draws a favorable matchup against James Harden and the Rockets, who are one of the worst teams at defending shooting guards.
Small Forward
Carmelo Anthony vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary $8,900
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game -- Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game -- Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 37.0
I also love Kevin Durant in this spot, but don’t like pairing him with Russell Westbrook. It really caps your lineup’s upside. I’d rather save $800 and go down to Anthony. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Clippers at home.
Justise Winslow vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary $3,700
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 9.7 | Last Five Games: 10.0
Min/Game -- Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 26.1
FP/Game -- Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 12.6
With all of the injuries to the Heat, Winslow is expected to draw the start at small forward tonight. He could end up playing 35-40 minutes even if the game turns into a blowout. He provides great upside for the price and can be targeted in all league formats.
Power Forward
Taj Gibson vs. Boston Celtics
Salary $4,800
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 11.6 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game -- Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 29.5
FP/Game -- Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.8
A lot of people were on Gibson the other night against the Warriors. It was a bad spot for him though, as the Warriors play a lot of small ball. Gibson should go back to seeing 30+ minutes tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 25th against power forwards this season.
Clint Capela vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Salary $4,800
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game -- Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 21.8
FP/Game -- Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.3
With Dwight Howard out, Capela should see a nice boost in minutes tonight against the Bucks. In Howard’s absence against the Pistons, Capela played 28 minutes and scored 28.3 fantasy points. He is a nice value play at a position that doesn’t have any obvious plays.
Center
Nikola Vucevic vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary $7,500
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game -- Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game -- Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 37.0
Vucevic has played well recently, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last five games. His minutes have also been up during that stretch, averaging close to 35 per contest. He should dominate tonight against a Hornets’ frontcourt that is both undersized and undermanned.
Note: This is not meant to be a full lineup. The picks are my favorite targets at each position.