I’ve noticed an interesting trend over the last few weeks. The Vegas totals on the NBA odds board are up, which has led to some high scoring games and consequently some higher cash lines in DFS. For instance, of the 14 teams in action tonight, 12 of them have higher team totals than their scoring average. Additionally, five teams (OKC, WAS, LAC, MIL, and MEM) are projected to score at least five more points than their season average.
Below are my top FanDuel targets for each position.
Russell Westbrook vs. Sacramento Kings
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 29.7
Min/Game -- Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game -- Season: 49.3 | Last Five Games: 53.4
Westbrook is my favorite play at any position tonight. He has everything that we are looking for in daily fantasy. He draws a nice matchup against the Kings, who may be the worst defensive team in the NBA. He comes into the game in good form, averaging 53.4 fantasy points over his last five games. He has an elite TO-adjusted usage rate (28.8). And finally, he offers both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Mike Conley vs. Denver Nuggets
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 23.3
Min/Game -- Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game -- Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 33.1
Conley has seen a nice boost in both usage and production since Marc Gasol went down with his injury. Over his last ten games, Conley is averaging over a fantasy point per minute, which is up considerably from his season average. Given the fact that tonight’s spread against the Nuggets is low, Conley should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight.
Value Option: Darren Collison: $5,200
James Harden vs. Milwaukee Bucks
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 29.1
Min/Game -- Season: 37.6 | Last Five Games: 41.4
FP/Game -- Season: 46.3 | Last Five Games: 52.5
When it comes to prioritizing superstars tonight, I have Harden ranked right behind Russell Westbrook. He has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 52.5 fantasy points in 41.4 minutes per contest. His usage rate remains one of the highest of any player in the NBA and he draws a favorable matchup against the Bucks, who have not fared well against wings this season.
Khris Middleton vs. Houston Rockets
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game -- Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 40.7
FP/Game -- Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 35.6
There are two teams that I always love seeing on the schedule – the Rockets and the Kings. Both are playing tonight, which means there are some great fantasy options available. Middleton is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and his production has been up recently, averaging 35.6 fantasy points over his last five games.
Value Option: Will Barton: $6,000
Kevin Durant vs. Sacramento Kings
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 27.6
Min/Game -- Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game -- Season: 45.9 | Last Five Games: 49.1
Tonight is one of those rare times where we may be able to get away with rostering both Russell Westbrook and Durant in the same lineup. They have the highest team total on the board and they should see a full complement of minutes in a game that features a 7.5-point spread.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Houston Rockets
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 20.6
Min/Game -- Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 37.4
FP/Game -- Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 43.4
Giannis is getting expensive, but given his matchup against the Rockets, he is an elite small forward option again tonight. Over his last five games, he is averaging 43.4 fantasy points in 37.4 minutes per contest. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
Value Option: Matt Barnes: $5,000
Derrick Favors vs. Boston Celtics
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.8
Min/Game -- Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game -- Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 38.9
There are three power forward options on my radar for cash games tonight – Favors, Zach Randolph, and Jabari Parker. It will be interesting to see how the ownership shakes out, as Favors has averaged close to 40 fantasy points per game in his last five outings. He also played well against the Celtics in their first meeting of the season, scoring 48 fantasy points.
Jabari Parker vs. Houston Rockets
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game -- Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 40.1
FP/Game -- Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 34.1
Parker is close to a must play for me tonight at power forward. Over his last five games, he is averaging 34.1 fantasy points in 40.1 minutes per contest. He is still very affordable on FanDuel and he draws the best possible matchup a power forward could have. The Rockets are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position.
Value Option: JaMychal Green: $4,000
Dwight Howard vs. Milwaukee Bucks
TO-Adjusted Usage -- Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game -- Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game -- Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 37.6
With Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Kevin Durant in such great spots tonight, it could make DeMarcus Cousins a good fade for cash games. He draws a tough matchup against the Thunder. Howard is considerably cheaper than Cousins and he draws a better matchup, as the Bucks are ranked 20th in rebounding differential this season.
Value Option: Nikola Jokic: $5,500
Note: This is not meant to be a full lineup. The picks are my favorite targets at each position.