We have a very nice eleven-game NBA slate on Saturday night. The slate is slightly bigger tonight because the NBA is rolling out only two games on Super Bowl Sunday. The eleven games possess a lot of DFS appeal, so let’s not waste any time and hop into the analysis for the contests over at FanDuel.
Stephen Curry, Golden State, $9,800 – Well, this recommendation is rather simple. Curry is playing at home, in a game with an over/under of 227. This total is the one of the highest of the season. The Suns and Warriors rank one and two in terms of the pace. The Warriors are favored by ten in this game which does present the potential for a blowout; however the extremely high over/under mitigates most of this risk. Phoenix ranks 25th in terms of defensive efficiency against the point guard position which adds appeal to an already elite play.
C.J. Watson, Indiana Pacers, $4,400 – Watson has been playing very steady minutes for the Indiana Pacers and will continue to do so until the minutes cap is lifted for George Hill. Watson has played at least 27 minutes in five straight games. The price on Watson requires around 22 fantasy points to reach his value threshold, and he has done at least that in four out of these last five games (check out our Ceiling and Consistency app for more players who meet value regularly). The Pacers will also have the added bonus of playing way up in pace. The Kings under Ty Corbin have really started to push to the tempo.
Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks, $7,800 – The Orlando Magic have decided to play at a very fast, frantic pace. Their increase in pace has led to some additional fantasy value for opponents. The Magic have been allowing their opponents to surpass 100 points per game with ease. Ellis has topped 44 fantasy points in two out his last four games. Chandler Parsons missed last night’s game, and if he were to miss tonight’s game as well, Ellis would receive a moderate boost.
Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks, $5,100 – The PHI/ATL game has some serious blowout potential as the Hawks are favored by 17.5 points. With such a large spread, I would not recommend targeting too many Hawks players. Korver is the guy that I think makes the most sense in this match-up with the 76ers for a couple of key reasons. The Sixers allow the third-most three-point field goal attempts per game, and this obviously suits Kyle Korver’s playing style. Additionally, Philly has surrendered the most fantasy points to the shooting guard position. The price and match-up appear to be a deadly combination for Kyle Korver.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs, $8,100 – One of the toughest dilemmas in the NBA DFS world is whether or not to feel safe targeting San Antonio Spurs players for your roster. With that being said, Kawhi Leonard is typically a very safe option due to his steady playing time. Leonard draws an excellent match-up with the Los Angeles Clippers who rank 29th in defensive efficiency against small forwards. The LAC/SAS game script is very appealing with an over/under of 202 with the Spurs favored by 5. This is a great spot to utilize Leonard.
Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets, $5,200 – The small forward position on Saturday (like most days) is very difficult to sort out. The options are very limited; therefore the secure minutes of Ariza become very appealing. Ariza has played at least 32 minutes in four straight games, which creates a relatively high floor. The production for Ariza has been down recently due to a bad shooting slump where we’ve seen him go 18 of 53 in the last five games. Once the shots start to fall, Ariza will have no problem paying off his very low price tag.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers, $9,900 – Aldridge has been as hot as any player in the NBA over the course of his last three games since returning from injury. LMA has produced 43.3, 58.2 and 58.2 points in these three games, which certainly indicates the lingering hand injury will not be any issue moving forward. His price will quickly be the rise due to his recent performances; therefore tonight will be the last opportunity to roster him under the $10k price point. Aldridge will definitely cause some match-up problems for the Bucks and I expect the Blazers to feed him early and often
Donatas Motiejunas, Houston Rockets, $5,400 – Motiejunas is coming off one of his best games of the season last night when he torched the Celtics for 26 and 12. Motiejunas will continue to get a solid boost in usage and minutes with Dwight Howard sidelined with an injury. The match-up on Saturday is elite versus the Pistons who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. The HOU/DET game also has a very solid over/under of 204. Motiejunas is a great value option tonight.
Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves, $7,100 – Dieng continued his hot play last night against the 76ers. Last night’s 36 fantasy point performance marked the third straight game that Dieng has reached at least this level of production. The match-up versus the foul prone Timofey Mozgov is very solid. The Timberwolves are ten-point underdogs in this match-up with Cavs, but this is not much of a concern as the Timberwolves are not really worried about winning basketball games. I like Dieng to continue his solid play in this excellent matchup.