First, Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there. We have another two game, two day NBA slate on FanDuel beginning with Game 1 between the Warriors and Spurs and ending with what should be a very exciting Game 7 between the Celtics and Wizards. The Warriors are well-rested having breezed through their first two rounds while the Spurs have had to work a bit harder, playing four more games along the way. I think the matchup between Boston and Washington will be more competitive, and I’ll be focusing on that game as much as I can.
Let’s take a look at today’s picks.
Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs, $5,200 – Mills is an easy value play. While I do think Golden State will win comfortably, Mills will probably play 30 or more minutes anyway. He’s been easily reaching or exceeding value lately, and with Dejounte Murray not likely to receive many meaningful minutes in this series, Mills should see as many as he can handle. He’s one of the top per dollar plays on the slate, and when you’re dealing with such a small player pool, you have to take what the slate is giving you. It’s giving you a near lock value play at point guard, and you should be using Mills as much as possible.
John Wall, Washington Wizards, $10,600 – The Wizards need a big game from Wall if they want to knock off the Celtics in Boston in Game 7. Boston can win without a big game from Isaiah Thomas, and the Warriors certainly don’t need a huge game from Stephen Curry to win, but Washington is so reliant on Wall that he almost has to put up a big fantasy line. He played 42 minutes in Game 6, and he’ll almost certainly play at least that in Game 7.
While Boston runs a good portion of their offense through Al Horford, and the Warriors have Draymond Green doing much of the facilitating, the task of opening up looks for teammates rests almost solely on Wall’s shoulders. He has the most upside due to his ability to score 30+ real points while dishing out 15 assists. While I certainly would want exposure to the other top point guard options, Wall is the guy that has the most realistic upside.
Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics, $6,000 – Bradley has been terrific the past two games, and while he’s eclipsed 37 fantasy points three times in this series, he’s also completely flopped in two games. In a do or die Game 7 at home, I think Bradley keeps things going and posts another strong line. He played 42 minutes in Game 6, and I’d expect him to finish above the 40-minute threshold once again in Game 7. With that amount of playing time coupled with his ability to supplement his scoring with rebounds and steals, Bradley is easily one of the top two options at the shooting guard position.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards, $7,900 – Given the value and the solid mid-range plays, I don’t mind paying up for an overpriced Bradley Beal. Considering the shooting guard position is fairly weak, and Klay Thompson simply isn’t usable at $7,300 with a fully healthy Golden State starting five, Beal is really the only option I trust. He took 26 shots in Game 6, so hopefully we’ll see similar involvement on the offensive end in Game 7. I expect him to finish somewhere north of 30 fantasy points, and even though that’s not terribly impressive from a per dollar standpoint, at least he’s offering a much higher floor than most options. Plus, he’s going to play extremely heavy minutes just as he did when he logged 43 in Game 6.
Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics, $6,200 – It’s hard to go wrong with Crowder. He’s surpassed 30 fantasy points four times in this series, scoring no fewer than 26.7 in all six games. He’s extremely consistent, has a high floor, plays heavy minutes, and is very affordable. Again, we have to take what the slate is giving us, and when you have a player for $6,200 that’s almost a lock to finish in the 25 to 35 fantasy point range, you need to jump all over him. This is Game 7, and I expect Crowder to play all the minutes he can handle in what should be another very fantasy-friendly game between these two teams.
Otto Porter, Washington Wizards, $5,400 – Porter went 0-for-5 from the field in Game 6 and finished with a whopping zero real points. He flopped with a fantasy score of just 15.4 despite playing 36 minutes. That’s the worst-case scenario for him, and I fully expect him to bounce back with a much better performance in Game 7. In the first four games of this series, Porter easily finished above 30 fantasy points, and I think it’s much more likely he returns to that level of production in Game 7. He’s going to play a ton of minutes, and his ability to contribute in multiple areas should help him grind himself to a solid total.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, $8,800 – Green is an absolute must for me as choosing two power forwards that aren’t him would give me nightmares for days. Green already has one triple double in the postseason, and he just barely missed two others. He’s also scored no fewer than 32.5 fantasy points in all eight playoff games, and that came in the series against Utah. He should keep rolling right along, making significant contributions in every category, and as long as the Warriors don’t run away with this one, I’m expecting another 40+ fantasy point performance. I would use him in every tournament lineup tonight.
Markieff Morris, Washington Wizards, $5,500 – LaMarcus Aldridge is unusable at $7,800 with Kawhi Leonard slated to return for Game 1. He’ll likely have to deal with a lot of Draymond Green, and his production takes a sizeable hit with Leonard back on the floor. I never love Morris, but he’s cheap, and he’s also the only sensible option to pair with Draymond Green. Morris is very affordable at $5,500, and he’s eclipsed 30 fantasy points three times this series. He has two duds due to low minutes. He’ll play heavy minutes in Game 7 against Boston, and although I expect the Celtics to take the series, I think Morris will contribute another 30+ fantasy point performance.
Additional Plays: None
Ian Mahinmi, Washington Wizards, $2,300 – If this were a cash game-focused article, I’d probably tell you to just roster Al Horford because he’s safe. However, you shouldn’t be playing cash games on these two game slates, and I don’t think Horford is a smart investment for a tournament lineup. Perhaps it’s just because I don’t like centers who can’t rebound, but $8,100 for a guy who’s likely to finish in the low 30s just doesn’t do it for me.
Ian Mahinmi keeps stealing minutes from Marcin Gortat. Gortat played only 25 minutes in a must-win Game 6 while Mahinmi logged 15. Given the strong matchup against all of the Boston softies, I think Mahinmi makes a worthwhile punt option at an extremely weak center position. He should get you 10 or more fantasy points, and on a per dollar basis, it’s quite possible he ends up being the best overall play at the position.