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FanDuel NFL Fades: Week 12

by Brandon Marianne Lee
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Are you a little groggy after a big turkey dinner and/or the many turkey leftover dinners to follow all weekend?

 

Well, don’t make these mistakes. Fading these players in Week 12 will open you up to better opportunities. There are too many great players in good matchups at better prices.

 

 

Tom Brady at Denver for $9,000

 

First, the Patriots lost Dion Lewis and no one was that concerned because LeGarrette Blount could still be a primary running back.

 

Then they lost Julian Edelman and no one freaked out because they have Danny Amendola and many still believe that Brandon LaFell can improve his catch percentage. The two of them could be a functional receiving duo.

 

But last week when New England faced Buffalo, on their home turf, for the first time you could tell there was concern. Also, Tom Brady’s numbers went way down. Starting in Week 9, when the Pats lost Lewis, Brady hasn’t gone over 20 FanDuel points in an outing. In Week 11 he only scored 14.08 points.

 

Denver certainly hasn’t looked as dominant over the last couple of weeks, but they still give up the absolute fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Only Andrew Luck in Week 9 was able to score more than 15 FanDuel points when facing this defensive front.

 

This game will be played in Denver, at altitude, on a short week for New England. To bank on Brady putting up 20+ FanDuel points is overly optimistic, and you need him to do that to be worth the cost. Save your money and find a quarterback in a nice matchup. You’ll be glad you did.

 

 

Philip Rivers at Jacksonville for $8,000

 

Jacksonville gives up the sixth most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks. Only a few weeks ago Rivers was on pace to beat passing records. But then everything crashed down when Rivers’ favorite target, Keenan Allen, was ruled out for the season.

 

Now, Rivers can’t get anything going on this offense. Veteran receiver Malcom Floyd has been out, future hall of fame tight end Antonio Gates still struggles with a knee injury, backup tight end Ladarius Green goes in and out of being hurt and his rookie running back, Melvin Gordon, has yet to be a factor.

 

When the defenses facing you simply need to double-team Danny Woodhead to shut down your entire offense, you have a problem. I’m not going to spend $8,000 on anyone in that situation, even when they’re in a seemingly nice matchup. 

 

 

Mark Ingram at Houston for $7,400

 

I’m concerned that even after getting a bye week to rest up, Mark Ingram is still limited in practice with a shoulder injury.

 

I’m also concerned about the Houston Texans defense that continues to improve each week. In fact, since Week 7 the team hasn’t allowed more than 64 rushing yards or a touchdown to an opposing running back.

 

You can also add the “Drew Brees isn’t as good on the road” narrative, but instead let’s focus on the fact that the New Orleans defense is still the league worst (with or without defensive coordinator Rob Ryan). The Texans have DeAndre Hopkins and they will score points. There is a strong possibility that the Saints will have to pass the ball to keep up.

 

I think Mark Ingram will be fine, but the ceiling is really low this week. Especially for you play GPP contests, go with someone with higher upside.

 

 

Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman versus Minnesota for $8,900/$6,200

 

Freeman is still listed as questionable with a concussion, but he’s not practicing and the team already announced that they are preparing as if Freeman will not be able to play. We hope he gets well soon.

 

That means that Kyle Shanahan-picked Tevin Coleman will get his shot at the position. Last week we saw with our own two eyes that Coleman is not Freeman. And that is not a good thing.

 

Coleman averaged only 2.8 yards per carry versus the Indianapolis Colts. He rushed 17 times for 48 yards, couldn’t catch either of his two targets and lost a late-game fumble. Yikes.

 

Minnesota is a pretty stout defense. They let Eddie Lacy run all around last week, but don’t get fooled. The Vikings give up the 6th fewest FanDuel points to opposing running backs and this is not a favorable matchup for a rookie coming off the bench.

 

 

A.J. Green versus St. Louis for $8,200

 

St. Louis gives up the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The highest score that a receiver put up against the Rams was in Week 3 when Antonio Brown put up 16.3 FanDuel points. Then it was James Jones in Week 5 with 14.7 points. That’s the ceiling.

 

There is no upside in this matchup and frankly, Green hasn’t been as productive at the position as we need him to be if he’s going to cost us $8,200. Since Week 3 he’s only scored one touchdown and gone over 100 yards once. And both of those things occurred in Week 8.

 

There is no statistical reason to play Green at that price in this matchup. None. 

 

 

Allen Hurns versus San Diego for $7,200

 

Allen Hurns continues to struggle with a foot injury, thigh injury and a sports-hernia that could eventually need surgery. Over the last few games, Hurns played through it all and up until last week he had scored a touchdown in seven straight performances.

 

I’ve been on the Hurns bandwagon since the beginning of the 2014 season. Hurns is on almost all of my season long leagues. It hurts me to tell you to fade him, but I must.

 

First, the injuries are finally starting to affect his play. He is an incredibly tough and determined athlete, but there is no way to deny that these injuries need to heal. Hurns did get 10 days of rest due to Week 11 being a Thursday night performance. Still, it’s disconcerting.

 

Also, this is about play calling and matchups. San Diego gives up the absolute most points to opposing running backs. On the flip side of that, they give up the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Only Alshon Jeffery and Amari Cooper scored over 13 FanDuel points on the Chargers. The Jaguars should run all day. Hurns will be on the field, but they want to be careful with him. Remember, this is a team with a chance at the playoffs…

 

 

 

Go hit up Black Friday or Cyber Monday if you feel like spending willy nilly. On FanDuel, you need to roster wisely.

 

Good luck in Week 12. 

Brandon Marianne Lee
Brandon Marianne Lee is a FanDuel contributor, a SiriusXM host, co-founder of Her Fantasy Football and was a finalist for FSWA's Newcomer of the Year in 2014. You can find her on Twitter @BrandonHerFFB.