It’s Week 13, oh… that unlucky number.
Thankfully, you don’t need luck when you’re well researched and you pay attention. Here are some players to avoid going into Week 13 when you’re setting that winning lineup.
Russell Wilson at Minnesota for $7,800
Minnesota has a great defense and has given up the 5th fewest FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Sure, Russell Wilson threw for over 300 yards last week… for the first time all season! And even though the Seahawks underutilized their tight end, losing Jimmy Graham will still take some getting used to. More than anything, the Seahawks still struggle with a weak offensive line and Wilson putting up two good games against two mediocre defenses will not fool me. It shouldn’t fool you either.
DeMarco Murray at New England for $7,400
We all know DeMarco Murray and the Eagles have stunk it up all season. Mentioning him here is not to insult your intelligence. I simply felt the need to point out that both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman were able to score against the Patriots in snowy weather while the Broncos defense played lights-out, but even after that, New England gives up the 11th fewest FanDuel points to opposing running backs. C.J. Anderson and LeSean McCoy were the only two backs to score more than 13.7 points on them all season. Yes, the LeSean McCoy that the Eagles gave up during the offseason could put up points, but I’m telling you that DeMarco Murray will not. It’s gone beyond being a contrarian play. It’s now in LaLa Land.
Darren McFadden at Washington for $7,300
McFadden has been a volume play for weeks and his price tag never exploded out of control. However, there are a couple of key issues standing in the way of his production in Week 13. First, Matt Cassel is back. McFadden did play well in a few games with Cassel under center and he was especially good when he scored 23.2 FanDuel points against the Giants in Week 7. A change happened, a big one. This team lost hope. They thought Tony Romo would ride in on a white horse and save them, get them to the playoffs. With Romo’s final injury induced departure, there went the season. The fight is gone. Also, Washington is a completely different defense when they play at home. In six games at home, they put up 15 sacks. In their five games on the road, they put up five. Washington has only allowed two running backs to score double-digit FanDuel points when playing in their stadium. That was Doug Martin (18.6 FDPs) in Week 7 and Mark Ingram (11.3 FDPs) in Week 10.
Mike Evans versus Atlanta for $7,900
Evans struggled the last time these two teams met in Week 8. He only caught three of his nine targets for 48 yards. All season Evans has dropped the ball, both literally and figuratively. He’s a volume play, and I won’t blame you if you plug him in while crossing your fingers for a gaudy amount of targets to buoy him into FanDuel relevance. It’s worked for him before, but Atlanta gives up the 2nd fewest FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers. Also, if Austin Seferian-Jenkins returns, he’ll get some looks and that could affect Evans’ volume. ASJ is practicing on a limited basis, but we’ve heard that story before. I wouldn’t count on either guy in Week 13.
Demaryius Thomas at San Diego for $7,600
I know that there is a big narrative going on in the fantasy world declaring this to be the big bounce back game for Thomas. Last week was atrocious, 13 targets and only one catch for 35 yards. He will be better than that, but how could he not? The volume of targets is promising, so like Mike Evans, it’s understandable if you want to plug him in based on that number alone. But either way you slice it, the Broncos run a conservative offense with Brock Osweiler under center. And why would the Broncos force the ball to Thomas when San Diego is terrible against the run? Even in terms of fantasy, the Chargers give up the 2nd most FanDuel points to opposing running backs and yet the 6th fewest to wide receivers. Sure, at the beginning of the season I would have jumped for joy at seeing Demaryius Thomas on FanDuel for only $7,600, but now…
Scott Chandler versus Philadelphia for $5,300
Greg Olsen is going up against the New Orleans Saints, the team that gives up the absolute most FanDuel points to tight ends. It makes sense that Olsen is the most owned tight end on FanDuel in the Thursday night contests. But Scott Chandler has the second highest ownership rate and that concerns me. First, Chandler is not the simple plug and play for Gronk. The Patriots know how to run extremely successful two-tight end sets, and they have chosen not to do that all year. That says something. Up until last week, Chandler had 14 catches on the season for 140 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been there, they simply haven’t used him. Also, the only players Philadelphia can defend are tight ends. They actually give up the 2nd fewest FanDuel points to tight ends, conversely giving up the absolute most points to opposing wide receivers. No tight end has scored more than 12.2 FanDuel points against the Eagles. Brady isn’t going to force it to Chandler if his has all these great matchups down the field. He’s too highly owned for the amount of uncertainty.
According to DFSReport.com, here are the three most rostered players from the Thursday night contests:
Cam Newton – 18.8%
Andy Dalton – 7.0%
Ben Roethlisberger – 6.9%
DeAngelo Williams – 25.4%
Jonathan Stewart – 16.4%
Doug Martin – 14.1%
Alshon Jeffery – 22.8%
Antonio Brown – 19.1%
A.J. Green – 14.2%
Greg Olsen – 27.7%
Scott Chandler – 13.9%
Delanie Walker – 10.5%
I hope this helps you make the tough decisions. Every week is a grind. Good luck in Week 13!