FanDuel Fades Week 7
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR4 on the LA Rams. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column. Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups. In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
In Week 7, I’m not fading too many players…the injury reports are pretty clear with LeSean McCoy, Carlos Hyde and Doug Martin not suiting up this Sunday. The quarterbacks with brutal defensive matchups probably aren’t on your list anyway: Carson Wentz, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, and Brock Osweiler aren’t guys I’m using at all this week. The same is largely true of their wide receivers and tight ends. There just aren’t many players with broad appeal that are worth avoiding this weekend.
However, Drew Brees, on the road, against the Chiefs defense, which is tied for the league lead in interceptions is one I can’t pull the trigger on. I’ve talked up Michael Thomas quite a bit, and think the passing volume will be there for the Saints in Kansas City. However, mistakes won’t hurt a value receiver nearly as much as a top priced QB.
I’m also not using Colin Kaepernick this weekend. This team has a lot more issues than just quarterback play and I’m not sure that Kaepernick turns it around against a Buccaneers team that I love this weekend. Tampa Bay is an okay rushing matchup, so we could see Kaepernick make some plays with his legs again in Week 7, but his 187/1 passing line leaves a lot to be desired. It also hurts him that Carlos Hyde is most likely out this week with the shoulder injury, leaving a murky backfield situation for the 49ers. Mike Davis is the contrarian value RB play this weekend, but he’s the only SF player I’m targeting in what could be another ugly game for San Francisco unless their defense really steps up.
In Week 7, I’m also fading:
the Seattle at Arizona game. I’d love to see Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer and all their talented receivers turn things around, but after last week, I’m gun shy. I remember well the fantasy gold that Arizona’s offense was in this game last year, but we haven’t seen that version of Palmer so far in 2016. The defenses allow the second and third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Seattle is bottom five against running backs and receivers too. While David Johnson is as close to matchup-proof as it gets, I can’t see relying on him in cash games this week with options like DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Spencer Ware out there in what look like solid situations.
In Week 7, players with high projected ownership, based in part on Thursday ownership percentages, are Mike Gillislee, DeMarco Murray, Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Evans and Julio Jones. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with chalk plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys. Spread them out thoughout your cash and tournament lineups.