Can you believe we've already reached Week 8?
We've got some interesting matchups on the board this weekend, and my goal will be to break down the quarterback and running back positions on FanDuel. Let's get to it.
Cash Game Targets
Aaron Rodgers: $8,800 (vs. Atlanta)
Rodgers is coming off one of his better games this season after he attempted 56 passes against the Bears. With his running game banged up, I’m expecting the same type of game from him this weekend. This should be one of the highest scoring games in Week 8. The Falcons have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and they’ve allowed at least 270 passing yards in six of seven games. They’re ranked 24th in DVOA against the pass, so Rodgers should be one of the safest options on the board this weekend.
Russell Wilson: $8,200 (vs. New Orleans)
Wilson is averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game so far, and he’s coming off his worst performance of the season against the Cardinals on Monday night. This is a great spot for him to have a good game though, as the Saints are allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. They’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, and they’re ranked 28th in DVOA against the pass. The only thing that worried me with Wilson: this will be his first career trip to New Orleans. It’s a loud place to play, but nonethless the Saints Defense continues to perform terribly.
Brock Osweiler: $6,600 (vs. DET)
Osweiler is coming off an awful game against the Broncos in Denver, so I’m expecting him to be very low owned this weekend. If he can’t perform in Week 8, I just don’t see him doing it at all this season. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and they’ve allowed an average of 23.8 fantasy points a week to quarterbacks. They’ve allowed at least one passing touchdown in every game this season, and multiple passing touchdowns in six of seven games. Houston has a 23.75 implied team total on the NFL odds board right now, and I like Brocks chances to throw multiple touchdowns in this game. I also love pairing him with DeAndre Hopkins.
Andrew Luck: $7,900 (vs. Kansas City)
If this game was in Kansas City, I would have zero interest in Luck, but he gets a nice bump in this matchup at home. The Colts Defense has been so bad this season, so Luck will be trailing a lot. He is averaging 22 fantasy points per game this season, and in Week 8 he’s priced as the seventh highest QB. I actually think there’s some solid value with Luck this weekend. He has at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games, and over 20 fantasy points in two of three home games this season. Kansas City is ranked 21st in DVOA against WR1s, suggesting Luck should be looking at Hilton a lot in this game. The Chiefs allowed five passing touchdowns on the road to the Steelers in Week 4, and they have allowed an average of two passing touchdowns on the road coming into this Sunday.
Cash Game Targets
Spencer Ware: $7,400 (vs. Indianapolis)
There’s a really good chance Charles is limited again this weekend, and he may not even play. Meanwhile, Ware has been stellar when given the workload this season. The Colts are allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They’re also ranked 32nd in DVOA against the rush this season, and 32nd in DVOA against running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. The Chiefs have run to the center and to the ends on more than 60% of their runs this season, while the Colts allow 3.77 YPC to the center, 5.16 YPC to the left end, and 8.78 YPC to the right end. This is setting up for a big game from Ware, and I think he’s one of the safest options this weekend.
Devontae Booker: $5,600 (vs. San Diego)
As I was doing my research on Wednesday morning, there was news that came out; Anderson is expected to miss a few weeks with a bone bruise. This isn’t confirmed from the team yet, but there’s a few solid sources reporting the news. Booker would likely take on a full workload if Anderson is out, and he'd turn into a very nice value running back for cash games. He’s looked good in a limited role this season, and received a nice bump in work this past Monday. He had 17 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Houston defense. The Chargers are ranked 18th in DVOA against the run this season, but they’ve allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott: $8,500 (vs. Philadelphia)
Elliott is by far one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend, as he should be low owned because of his matchup. Philly is ranked second overall in DVOA on defense this season, but they’re ranked 13 in DVOA against the run. The Eagles held DeAngelo Williams down in Week 3, but they haven’t faced many good running backs this season. Elliott comes in off a bye week, and he has four straight games with at least 130 yards rushing. He’s dominating the offensive looks for the Cowboys, with 45% of the total team touches. Elliott has multiple touchdown upside in this game, and he’s a great GPP play.
Matt Forte: $7,300 (vs. Cleveland)
After touching the ball 24 total times over the past two games, Forte finally saw an increased workload against Baltimore last weekend. He had 34 touches in that game, and ended with 27.4 fantasy points on FanDuel. Even with those two down games, Forte has 46% of the total touches for the Jets this season. I think it was a sign of being healthy, and it helped that the Jets were finally able to stay close in a game. When Forte gets the touches, he’s got massive upside, and he should touch the ball a lot in this game against Cleveland. The Browns are ranked 30th in DVOA against the rush this season, and they’ve allowed a rushing touchdown in six of seven games.