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MLB DFS Plays: Tuesday

by Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:08 pm ET

Tonight we have a massive 14-game slate, with a lot of viable DFS options on both the pitching and hitting side. These are the kind of slates that I love, as I think there's a nice edge when there are a lot of different plays to target.

 

We do have a few concerns in weather, so make sure to check on those updates before lineups lock tonight. Let's get into my top plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.

 

Pitching

 

There are five studs pitching on tonight's slate, and all five of them have favorable umpires for pitching. Luis Severino is really expensive on DraftKings, but I like this spot a ton, so I will get my exposure to him on FanDuel. The Phillies have one of the highest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching in baseball this season.

 

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Corey Kluber's situation will depend on weather and the opposing lineup; if the weather is good and it's a right-handed heavy lineup, he's definitely a top option. Kluber has a .235 wOBA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.

 

James Paxton is up against Baltimore, and while the ballpark isn't ideal, the matchup is great. The Orioles' projected starters have a .126 ISO with a .293 wOBA against lefties this season. Hopefully this is a spot in which  Paxton can get back on track.

 

The viability of Charlie Morton is going to depend on what type of lineup we see for the Blue Jays. They don't have a lot of left-handed hitters on the 25-man roster, so we need to see what the bottom half of this lineup looks like tonight. Morton has a much higher strikeout rate against lefties this season, though  he's been great all around.

 

Saving the best for last, you're getting a massive discount from the top options down to Ross Stripling tonight on DraftKings. Stripling comes in with a 2.91 xFIP with a 29.6% strikeout rate and an elite 3.8% walk rate. He also has an elite 2.1% hard to soft contact ratio. Stripling pitches ahead of batters, and this Cubs lineup isn't as scary as people give it credit for. The projected starters have a .191 ISO with a .340 wOBA and a 21.6% strikeout rate this season. The wOBA will scare people off, but when the highest average exit velocity is coming from Ian Happ, I'm not too worried about this lineup crushing Stripling.

 

The next tier has three pitchers I like tonight, but this is more for two-pitcher sites than one-pitcher sites. The only reason you're paying down on FanDuel is to fit a few extra bats. Freddy Peralta is my favorite value option on tonight's slate, as he's shown massive strikeout ability at every level he's pitched at. With Duda back and some of the young guys getting called up, the Kansas City projected starting lineup has a 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

 

Next up is Zack Godley, and I actually think he's more in play on FanDuel because of his DraftKings price. Godley gets a favorable umpire tonight, and he's pitching in one of the best ballparks in baseball for pitchers. He has a high enough strikeout rate against righties and a high soft contact rate to make him playable against the Marlins.

 

Frankie Montas is priced up on FanDuel, but he's right in that value range on DraftKings. The projected Tigers starters have a .150 ISO with a .305 wOBA and a 22.7% strikeout rate against righties in 2018. Montas isn't a big strikeout guy, but he induces a lot of ground balls and typically doesn't get blown up.

 

Hitting

 

Let's start with my two favorite teams on this slate. The Red Sox have struggled with left-handed pitching this season, but they draw a great matchup against John Lamb, who has been awful versus right-handed hitters this season. We saw the same from him in 2016 with the Reds. The Red Sox are so expensive that you're likely stacking them instead of playing them as one-offs, but J.D. Martinez is one of the top options on the slate.

 

It's no shocker, but I love the Atlanta Braves tonight. Not only do I stack them more than anyone else, tonight they face Matt Harvey, who has a .386 wOBA with a .268 ISO and a 39.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. I like the top four here, but don't get discouraged by the wOBA number for Flowers either. His .170 BABIP suggests he's getting unlucky against right-handed pitching so far.

 

The Padres and Rangers game is also interesting. We have a massive total and it's the hottest game temperature-wise on the slate. The ball tends to fly in this ballpark when it's hot in Texas. The Padres offer a lot of value on FanDuel and DraftKings, and some of these guys are way too cheap on FanDuel. Hosmer is who should be in your lineups at this price, and I don't mind looking at anyone in the top six on either site. On the other side, Tyson Ross looked good to start the season, but his velocity is down and the numbers against lefties are declining. He has a .354 wOBA with a 36.7% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Choo, Mazara, and Odor are nice plays, and Gallo has massive upside in this spot.

 

A few other situations to look at tonight: The Astros draw a lefty making his Major League debut. They're fourth in team wOBA against lefties this season and have some great power numbers against them. Every projected starter outside of Marisnick has an average exit velocity over 89 mph against lefties this season.

 

I also like the lefties from the Twins and White Sox in their matchup tonight. Both of these pitchers have really struggled with left-handed hitters this season.

 

One of the spots I want to attack in tournaments that should be very low owned is the Seattle Mariners. I love to attack this team when they're on the road, and they receive a nice ballpark bump tonight. Gausman has struggled with power righties this season, which makes me like both Haniger and Cruz. Seager is always someone I like against righties when they're on the road, as well.

Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Stevie "stevietpfl" Young is a top-ranked DFS player and GrindersLive host who specializes in NFL, MLB and NASCAR. He provides both written content and media work for RotoGrinders.