Tonight we have a massive 15-game slate, and this’ll be the last Tuesday article before the MLB All-Star break. There are some excellent pitching options and some poor pitchers to attack.
When looking at the top tier tonight, it’s easy to take Patrick Corbin off the list since he's pitching in Coors. I think Trevor Bauer and Justin Verlander are the top two options on the slate, but it’s tough to make it work on DraftKings. Bauer has been excellent this season, as he comes in with a 3.17 xFIP and a 31.3% strikeout rate. While he has upside in any matchup, the Reds have done a great job at not striking out against right-handed pitching this season. The projected starters have an 18.4% strikeout rate and only three projected starters have a strikeout rate over 20% against righties. On top of that, they’re adding a DH spot tonight.
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Like Bauer, Verlander has a strikeout rate over 31% this season. The projected starters for Oakland have a 21.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. It’s not an ideal spot for either one of these guys, but they both have a high floor with a lot of upside.
Outside of the top two, there are three pitchers that I really like. Rich Hill has struggled with right-handed hitters this season, but he's pitched a lot better since coming off the DL. The Padres have some good hitters against left-handed pitching, but they struggle with curveballs. Hill uses his curveball over 38% of the time and could do some damage against this San Diego lineup.
Jose Quintana is also someone I'm watching tonight, though I want to see what the lineup looks like for the Giants. Posey and Hernandez are both banged up right now, so outside of McCutchen, they don't have many good righties. If one of Posey or Hernandez is out tonight, I think Quintana has a nice floor here.
De Los Santos will be making his Major League debut tonight, and he draws a good matchup against the Mets. The projected starters have a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. De Los Santos has an above average fastball and changeup, and while his curveball needs work, I think he's worth the risk on this slate.
There are two left-handed pitchers in Coors tonight, and both of these lineups have some power righties. Patrick Corbin has been good against righties this season and comes in with a .230 wOBA and a .109 ISO. With that said, I still think Arenado, Story, and Desmond are in play tonight. Tyler Anderson pitched great in his last Coors start, and like Corbin he's been solid against right-handed hitters this season. Ahmed, Goldschmidt, and Pollock are all above average against lefties. You're not getting a discount on any of these bats, so they may be better cash game plays than tournament plays tonight.
Outside of Coors Field, the Red Sox and Yankees stand out to me. Gallardo’s been awful this season, as he has a .377 wOBA to righties and a .382 wOBA to lefties. I like the top seven for the Red Sox, and they're my favorite stack for tournaments tonight.
The Yankees draw a great matchup with Andrew Cashner, who has struggled with both righties and lefties this season. The top six for the Yankees make for a great stack, as they profile very well against Cashner.
Cleveland disappointed against the Reds last night, but this is a great spot to go back to the well. Romano has a .379 wOBA with a .215 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season.
Elsewhere, the Cardinals are my sneaky stack on tonight's slate. Covey has been awful recently, and with this being a 15-game slate, I don't expect a lot of people to look at St. Louis.
Last but not least is the KC/MIN game as a whole. Slegers has pitched okay in his first two starts but will face a Royals team that’s already faced him once. He has very little strikeout stuff, and his Minor League numbers suggest the same thing. Ian Kennedy‘s been awful this season, and Max Kepler is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Depending on what this lineup looks like, you can make a nice little Rosario, Kepler, Morrison, and Polanco stack on the Minnesota side.