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MLB DFS Plays: Tuesday

by Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:08 pm ET

Tonight we have a massive 15-game slate with a lot of pitching and hitting options to choose from. Like every Tuesday, I'm going to go through my favorites on this slate and try to give a general idea on where to start your FanDuel and DraftKings lineups tonight.

 

As always, make sure to check lineups and weather before locking in your team. Let's get into the analysis!

 

Pitchers

 

It's rare that I like everyone in the top tier, but that's the case tonight. I'm going to start with my favorite and that's Masahiro Tanaka against the Marlins. He's getting a massive ballpark shift, and he's also getting a league shift, so he won't have to face the DH. This projected Miami lineup has a .140 ISO with a .294 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Realmuto is the only threat in this lineup, and that's enough for me to like Tanaka as the top overall pitcher.

 

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I like this spot for Patrick Corbin as well. The Angels are losing the DH, which likely means Ohtani will not be in the lineup; and with Trout on the DL, this lineup should look pretty weak here. They're one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching this season, as their projected starters have a .130 ISO with a .300 wOBA against lefties.

 

Elsewhere, I think Snell and Berrios provide high ceilings in these matchups, but they both have a little more downside than the other two in this range. Snell threw 76 pitches after throwing 59 and 47 in his other two starts since coming back from the DL. It's hard to say what his pitch count is going to be tonight, but it looks like they're being careful with him right now. He has an excellent matchup against the Royals and might be worth the risk if you're willing to take it.

 

Berrios faces a strikeout-heavy White Sox offense on Tuesday night, and Chicago's projected starters have a .183 ISO with a .319 wOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They have power in this lineup, and that's what makes Berrios a little riskier than the other options tonight. However, it wouldn't shock me if he ends up being the highest scoring pitcher on the slate.

 

I've narrowed down my other two options to Michael Kopech and Sam Gaviglio. These are two younger pitchers, and Kopech will be making his Major League debut tonight. I worry about the walks here for Kopech, but the strikeout upside is what I'm playing him for in this spot. In 126.1 innings in AAA this season, he has a 31.3% strikeout rate with a 12.7% swinging strike rate. The projected starters for the Twins have a 21.7% strikeout rate with a .158 ISO and a .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

 

Gaviglio faces a Baltimore offense that has a .138 ISO with a .299 wOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have a couple more lefties now with Mullins and Villar, but are still projected to have six righties. Gaviglio has a .339 wOBA with a .187 ISO and a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters.

 

Hitters

 

Oakland and Milwaukee were my two favorite stacks last night, and I'm going right back to the well on both teams tonight. Since being called up, Jurado has struggled to miss bats. He's a sinkerballer and has a 4.2% swinging strike rate with a 44.1% hard-hit rate. I like the top six for the A's tonight, and even in this ballpark, I feel like they have a lot of upside. The Brewers let us down a little last night, but they draw a good matchup again tonight against Sal Romano, who has a .391 wOBA with a .220 ISO and a 42.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. I like the Milwaukee lefties here, but if I'm stacking them, I will play Aguilar and the other righties too. Moustakas is a top option on this slate for me.

 

The Red Sox are always in play, but they're in a particularly great spot tonight against Bieber. While he's been good against righties, he's struggled a lot with left-handed hitters. He has a .399 wOBA with a .243 ISO and a 47.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters since being called up. I love the Red Sox lefties tonight, and don't forget about Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

The Rockies are the other team to pay up for. They face a left-handed pitcher in Coors, and while Erlin has been good, it's just not the same when you pitch in Coors. I'll be targeting the righties for Colorado, and while you have to pay up for them, they have a ton of upside in this matchup.

 

The last two teams I want to mention are the Dodgers and Blue Jays. The Cardinals' Poncedeleon has looked good since being called up, but he's going to be put to the test in this matchup tonight. This is one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, as LA's projected starters have a .242 ISO with a .371 wOBA and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against righties. They're one of my favorite stacks tonight, and I could see them flying under the radar a little on this massive slate.

 

Bundy has struggled with left-handed hitters this season, so I think the lefties for the Blue Jays are sneaky good in this situation. I also like Grichuk if you're looking for a stack option here. Bundy has a .263 ISO against righties, and Grichuk continues to hit right-handed pitching for power this season.

Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Stevie "stevietpfl" Young is a top-ranked DFS player and GrindersLive host who specializes in NFL, MLB and NASCAR. He provides both written content and media work for RotoGrinders.