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MLB DFS Plays: Tuesday

by Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:08 pm ET

Tonight we have a massive 13-game slate, and as always, we need to make sure to pay attention to the weather.

 

There are eight games with implied totals over nine tonight and some solid pitching options to consider. With great spots to attack, this sets up as a great slate, so let's get right into my top pitching and hitting plays on FanDuel and DraftKings for tonight.

 

Pitching

 

With Chris Sale only expected to pitch two innings, he's a fade for me, meaning Jacob deGrom is the top pitcher on the slate. He's at home against the Miami Marlins, and he's trying to break the Major League record for most starts in a row with three earned runs or less. The projected lineup for the Marlins has a .135 ISO with a .299 wOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, while deGrom has a 2.83 xFIP with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a 5.7% walk rate. He's also pitching to prove he should win the NL Cy Young.

 

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If you want to save some money, I like Mike Foltynewicz against the Giants. Not only is this lineup weak, but this is also one of the best ballparks in baseball for pitchers. Folty has the strikeout upside to put up a big game, and this ballpark should help him limit the damage.

 

After the top two options, I think Mike Fiers and Tyler Glasnow are great tournament options tonight. Fiers has posted at least 19 DraftKings points in five of his six starts with Oakland and draws an excellent matchup against a strikeout-heavy Baltimore lineup. It's a ballpark downgrade, but the risk is worth the upside here. Baltimore's starters have a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

 

Glasnow has a really tough matchup against Cleveland, and that should make him a low-owned pitcher on this slate. That said, he has a 3.80 xFIP with a 30.4% strikeout rate and a 49.5% ground ball rate on the season. His struggles are walks and holding runners on, which could certainly burn him in this matchup against the Indians, but the upside at low ownership is there.

 

Depending on the lineup for the Nationals in the second half of the double-header, you could look at Jake Arrieta too. You'll want more righties and the power lefties to be out of the lineup, though.

 

Sonny Gray has pitched much better on the road this season, and he faces a weaker Minnesota offense on the road tonight. I worry about the left-handed power bats, but I do like the upside enough to roll the dice in this matchup.

 

Marco Gonzales will be making his first start off the DL tonight and is expecting to be capped to around 75 pitches. He draws an excellent matchup at home against the Padres, and if you want to save some salary, he’s good value at this price despite the limited pitch count risk.

 

Hitting

 

When looking at the top options on the slate, I think it's safe to say Coors Field and the Red Sox are going to be the popular options to attack. Luckily for us we have a salary cap and it's not easy fitting those teams in. Greinke’s been good this season, but he does give up a lot of power to right-handed hitters, so I like the righties a little more than the lefties here. On the other side, Senzatela has a .351 wOBA with a .213 ISO against right-handed hitters this season, which makes Goldschmidt and Pollock great options. I don’t mind the lefties for the Diamondbacks as well.

 

The Red Sox have a 6.06 implied team total on this slate, which is higher than both teams in Coors Field. Three of the top five guys in this lineup have ISOs over .200 and wOBA's over .400 against left-handed pitching this season. We also get some nice prices on guys like Pearce and Kinsler.

 

Outside of the big three, Oakland is my favorite stack on this slate. Alex Cobb has shown reverse splits tendencies almost all season, as he comes in with a .369 wOBA and a .234 ISO against right-handed hitters. The top six for Oakland are all in play, and I will have a couple different A's stacks on this slate.

 

I also like the full stack for the Yankees tonight. They're starting to get healthy, and when healthy this is one of the best lineups in baseball. There’s a lot of power in this lineup, and if they get to that bullpen, there is a ton of upside here.

 

The Rays, Blue Jays, and Royals all have something I like tonight as well. Starting with the Rays, I'll be targeting left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Bieber has a .397 wOBA with a .247 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. I don't know about fully stacking the Rays tonight, but I'll be targeting some of the lefties, with Choi being my favorite.

 

The Blue Jays are a DraftKings special tonight. They’re priced to face Chris Sale, yet he's only expected to pitch two innings tonight. There’s some great value here, and I'm going to use it to make some of my expensive stacks to work.

 

I know I said the Royals are a team to target above, but really it's only O'Hearn that I have interest in. Covey struggles against lefties, and O'Hearn has a .448 ISO with a .522 wOBA in 81 PAs against right-handed pitching this season. I don't mind Mondesi either because of his stolen base upside.

Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Stevie "stevietpfl" Young is a top-ranked DFS player and GrindersLive host who specializes in NFL, MLB and NASCAR. He provides both written content and media work for RotoGrinders.