Tonight we have a massive 14-game slate, and it's the last Tuesday slate of the regular season. That also means it's the final article of the season for me, so I really appreciate everyone reading every Tuesday this season.
At the top we have Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, and Luis Severino. Scherzer is the top pitcher on tonight's slate...and just about every slate he pitches on. The Marlins project to have six right-handed hitters and the pitcher’s spot in the lineup tonight. Scherzer has a .243 wOBA with a .141 ISO and a 38.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, while Miami's projected starting lineup has a .152 ISO with a .300 wOBA and a 22.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
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Buehler has been pitching great recently, and with the Dodgers in a must win game, I like his chances to pitch deeper into the game if he's pitching well. The projected starting lineup for Arizona has a .193 ISO with a .341 wOBA, which is certainly solid, but they have a 23.6% strikeout rate and nothing to play for.
Tampa was officially eliminated last night from the playoffs and could roll out a different lineup tonight. That would be the only way I'd play Severino over the other two guys.
Here we have two young pitchers with some boom/bust upside. Josh James has shown strikeout ability at every level he's pitched at. In 17 starts (92.2 IP) in AAA this season, he's posted a 35.2% strikeout rate with a 14.3% swinging strike rate. The biggest concern with him, and really any young pitcher, is the walks. The Blue Jays’ projected starting lineup has a .218 ISO with a .368 wOBA and a 21.1% strikeout rate.
Toussaint posted a 28.1% strikeout rate in AAA and a 29.3% strikeout rate at AA this season. He has an above average fastball and a very good curveball. I love his upside at his price, but there's nothing safe about this spot for him.
The Rockies are in a must win game at home against the Phillies and they have a good matchup against Vince Velasquez, who has been really good against righties but continues to struggle against left-handed hitters. He has a .374 wOBA with a .233 ISO against lefties. Velasquez also gives up a lot of fly balls and hard contact to left-handed hitters.
On the other side, Chad Bettis has struggled with power bats all season, so I think you can look at some of the power bats for the Phillies tonight. I hope Justin Bour cracks the lineup, considering he's super cheap over on FanDuel.
Aside from the Coors game, I like the Dodgers and Angels. Like the Rockies, the Dodgers need to win every game they can, and they draw a great matchup against Matt Koch with the roof open in Arizona. Koch has a .191 ISO against lefties and a .256 ISO against righties. He also has a 45.3% hard-hit rate this season and doesn't generate a lot of soft contact. That's not going to work against a Dodgers team that has eight guys with ISOs over .195 against right-handed pitching this season.
Yovani Gallardo has been awful this season. He has a 5.46 xFIP with a 13.9% strikeout rate and a 11.3% walk rate. He has a .351 wOBA with a .195 ISO and a 37.6% hard-hit rate against lefties. I like the cheaper Angels and don't mind paying up for Ohtani and Trout too.
Houston draws a good matchup against Sam Gaviglio, and with the other spots on this slate, they could go overlooked. Gaviglio has struggled with power hitters all season.
The Indians are expensive, but they get a matchup with James “Homer” Shields. I like the right-handed power bats a little more than the lefties in this one.
The last game I wanted to talk about is the STL/MIL game. These two teams are fighting for a playoff spot, and they're both in play tonight. I like the right-handed bats from both teams, and I could see this going one of two ways: either high scoring or a low scoring, playoff-like game. I like the upside enough to take a shot on a game stack.