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NBA Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

The All-Star festivities are looming but we still have a few evenings of NBA action to enjoy before the break. Tonight features six games, including what could be a blowout when the Warriors host the Suns. Let's look at Vegas' expectations for tonight's slate:

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Pelicans at Pistons

221.5

Pistons -2.5

Knicks at Sixers

211

Sixers -11.5

Clippers at Nets

222.5

Clippers -4.5

Magic at Bulls

215

Bulls -4.5

Spurs at Jazz

197

Jazz -4.5

Suns at Warriors

229.5

Warriors -16.0

 

We should also take an objective glance at how easy or difficult tonight’s active teams have been for opposing players. This data covers the past month (Jan. 1 – Feb. 1) and is specific to the NBA’s official points-league scoring…identical to Draft.com and FanDuel scoring. The data comes from RotoGrinders, which calculates points allowed to positions based on the actual designation from FanDuel – e.g. if Carmelo Anthony is listed at PF but actually plays SF one night because Paul George is out, he’s still counted at the PF position.

 

 

The Spurs have given up an average of 31.1 fewer fantasy points to opponents than Brooklyn has during that span. I was also surprised to see how stingy the Sixers have also been lately. With those numbers in mind, let’s discuss individual bargains who fall below $6.0k on FanDuel tonight – preferably far below. As usual, injuries and lineup tweaks are crucial and DFS owners should always monitor news until the moment lineups lock!

 

LaMarcus Aldridge (sore right knee) has been ruled out for both Monday and Tuesday, which should mean plenty of minutes for Davis Bertans. This game should have a sluggish pace and it's not a good matchup overall, but Bertans was already averaging 28.5 minutes over the past two games -- with Aldridge out he should be a lock for 32+ tonight. And with his price at just $3.9k he's one of the more appealing punts on a night without a ton of obvious targets.

 

The Jazz have been surprisingly lenient vs. opposing centers over the past month, but the real reason to target Pau Gasol (C, $5.4k) is sheer opportunity. LaMarcus Aldridge (knee) is out, as mentioned above, and the Spurs are still without Kawhi Leonard and Rudy Gay. They may also be missing Tony Parker (back tightness) and Dejounte Murray (ankle), which would leave them without four of their six highest-usage players. Gasol is No. 3 in that department and he should get a ton of touches tonight -- plus his price didn't budge despite Aldridge being ruled out on Sunday.

 

Although the matchup doesn't look good on paper, Kyle O'Quinn (C, $4.5k) is cheap enough that he's still a viable punt play. He only needs 22.5 fantasy points for 5x value, and in New York's past four games he's averaged 25.8 -- that includes a 10.6-point dud vs. the Bucks last Tuesday. O'Quinn soaked up the bulk of the backup-center minutes with Enes Kanter back on Sunday, and I expect him to do so again at the expense of Luke Kornet (PF, $4.3k).

 

The Pistons aren't an intimidating matchup for PGs, which makes Rajon Rondo (PG, $5.5k) even more appealing. He's coming off a monster game with 25 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds in 41 minutes (albeit vs. the Nets), and simply has more explosive upside than any other guard in his price range.

 

Elsewhere at the PG position, we find Emmanuel Mudiay (PG, $3.7k) available at a near-rock-bottom price. That's surprising since he notched 29.4 fantasy points in his Knicks debut on Sunday, scoring 14 points with 10 assists and a pair of rebounds off the bench. Jarrett Jack started but only played eight minutes, and the best news might have been Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina sharing the backcourt for nearly 24 minutes.

 

The matchup vs. San Antonio is brutal, but Joe Ingles (SF, $5.5k) is on a roll lately and should have the ball in his hands a lot if Ricky Rubio (hip) sits out again. Ingles has hit at least 36.5 fantasy points in three of Utah’s past four games. There are quite a few mid-range alternatives if you prefer to fade Ingles – DeMarre Carroll (SF, $5.5k) is rock solid, Kyle Anderson (SF, $5.3k) also benefits without Aldridge, and Allen Crabbe (SF, $5.0k) is red-hot with 37.4 points and 39.7 points in his past two games. Good luck tonight!

Ryan Knaus

Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for NBC Sports Edge since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.