We’ve revamped the NBA Targets post to give a little bit more of a diverse look at each slate rather than focusing on just a couple games. Here's a preview of each matchup and my thoughts on the top picks, other picks to consider, and some players to avoid for tonight.
GSW @ POR over/under 207, Warriors -7
This game could go a lot of ways, the line expects it to be close I assume due to the Warriors playing a back-to-back and the Blazers playing at home, where they are almost always solid. However, it’s looking unlikely that LaMarcus Aldridge, Nic Batum or Chris Kaman play in this one, leaving the Blazers awfully short handed. Steph Curry played pretty sparingly last night, so he should be geared up and ready for a great matchup with the Blazers, while Klay Thompson continues to ease himself back into action.
SAS @ DAL over/under 206.5, Spurs -3
This is one of my favorite games to target tonight, especially for GPPs, there are a lot of good matchups on top of it being a close and high scoring projected game. Tim Duncan was surprisingly heavily owned on Sunday at his depressed price and had a nice game, the Spurs need wins and so do the Mavericks, so I’m expecting both teams to go all out with everyone available in this one.
Stephen Curry -- PG GSW
Curry has been eerily quiet lately, so the big game is coming. He’s remained remarkably efficient all season, but with how good the Warriors have been they simply haven’t needed him to dominate. With Klay Thompson still working his way back, Curry should continue to be the focal point of the offense early, as he was last night, scoring 22 points in 28 minutes. The Blazers have fallen to 25th in the league in defensive efficiency against point guards in March and the line is much closer than you’d think on this game. Shaun Livingston will also be rested tonight, giving him the potential for a few more minutes.
Rudy Gay -- SF SAC
The Sixers worst defensive position over the past 6 weeks has been small forward and we already saw Rudy Gay post a solid game against them a short while ago. Since then, Gay has been rock solid at a position that’s been full of duds. Gay has 8 straight games of 30 or more fantasy points and while 30 isn’t going to wow you, it’s been more than getting the job done at the position.
Tim Duncan -- PF SAS
If you’ve read my work for a while, you know Tim Duncan is one of my least favorite players to roster in DFS, there’s just so much uncertainty about his playing time from game to game, but it’s been awhile since we’ve seen the Spurs in a real fight for the playoffs and seeding and it’s leading to some increased minutes for Duncan. He turned in an impressive performance on Sunday against Atlanta and will now take on the rival Mavericks who sport at bottom 10 power forward defensive rating.
Reggie Jackson -- PG DET
Jackson had been far from as good as expected since taking over the Pistons starting point guard gig after coming in via trade, but he’s had some pretty explosive games since that rough start, seemingly due to Greg Monroe being out of the lineup as much as him getting comfortable. He’s tallied at least 40 fantasy points in four straight games, all of them double-doubles. He’ll take on a Raptors defense that’s been dead last against point guards over the past 6 weeks either with a banged up Kyle Lowry or without him entirely. Jackson’s price still remains very favorable thanks to the slow start in Detroit.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -- SG DET
Caldwell-Pope has been another big beneficiary of the Monroe injury. He’s been playing exceedingly heavy minutes with the Pistons going small with Caron Butler and Tayshaun Prince at power forward often lately. He’s been playing much better as well, taking the ball to the rim and using his size more often, rather than just chucking spot up jumpers at will. Okay, he’s still chucking, but at least he’s mixing it up from time to time. The Raptors have fallen into the bottom 10 of SG defense on the season thanks to a rough stretch in March, where they ranked 23rd in efficiency.
Rajon Rondo -- PG DAL
Rondo offers some extra stability in his minutes with JJ Barea ruled out for tonight. He’s been averaging right around 30 over the last week and should see a few more than that against the Spurs. The Spurs have been dead last against points guards in March and there’s not reason for them to use Kawhi Leonard on him, so Rondo should have a rock solid game for his price this evening.
Dion Waiters -- SG OKC
Waiters has been a roller coaster with Kevin Durant out, he’s gone from coming off the bench to starting, as well as posting silent lines to posting huge ones. Waiters was integral in the Thunder win over the Hawks last week with 26 points, but then turned in a dud in the next game that was more in line with his production since becoming a starter. The Lakers have been a bottom of the barrell team versus shooting guards all season and it’s not going to get any better with Jeremy Lin taking over the position tonight.
Ben McLemore -- SG SAC
The Sixers have been awful against shooting guards all season and especially lately, but even with a weak shooting guard position tonight, it’s impossible to trust McLemore. He’s coming off a nice game last time out against the Wizards with DeMarcus Cousins in foul trouble, but all it takes is a glance through his game log to see that matchup and who is in and out for the Kings matters little to his production. He’s simply too streaky for me, even at his discount price.