DFS Fades Week 7
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Buffalo Bills. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 7, I’m fading…
Michael Thomas: He’s standing in for all the Saints here, as Baltimore is a defense I just want no part of rostering against. If you are putting 150 lineups in a tournament, there’s probably room for the kind of talent Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and Thomas or Tre’Quan Smith bring to the game, but there are going to be easier paths to fantasy points this week.
DeAndre Hopkins: As if a DNP on Thursday isn’t enough, he and Will Fuller V are going to bear the brunt of Jacksonville’s terrific secondary, while Keke Coutee could escape with a nice day in the slot. It’s been a solid strategy to pay up for running backs and save at WR this year, but even if you buck that trend, spend on Adam Thielen or Mike Evans instead of Hopkins this week.
Alex Smith:You weren’t going here anyway, but with all the receivers and running backs hurt and Dallas being an above average pass defense, I’m avoiding all the Redskins in what Vegas predicts is a low scoring game.
T.Y. Hilton:If he’s healthy enough to play, he’ll be covered by the Bills star cornerback, Tre’Davious White. Vegas has the Colts as pretty big favorites here, but I’m worried about an invigorated Bills team behind a veteran QB, as well as the fact that Indianapolis should be better equipped to run the ball this week. Hilton is a tough buy for me this week.
Josh Reynolds: A hot – and cheap – name with Cooper Kupp set to miss the week, but not one I’m buying. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, not to mention Todd Gurley, are more than capable of picking up the slack, and the Rams have two semi-capable tight ends (Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett) on the field as well. Reynolds will play, but will he be the kind of player to push your lineup to the top of the standings? I’m not confident.
Rob Gronkowski: Will probably always have an injury designation. I prefer to spend on Zach Ertz this week, or save with David Njoku, but Gronk is always a good tournament play. Teammates Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Sony Michel also appeared on the injury report this week, but I expect all will play Sunday. I’d prioritize the passing game in this one as that’s where Chicago has been most vulnerable to date.
Allen Robinson II: Robinson will be someone to monitor leading up to game time. While the Patriots secondary is talented (notably Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty), Mitch Trubisky has been impressive the past two games. I love Taylor Gabriel this week, and if Robinson were unable to go, I’d be higher on Trey Burton and Anthony Miller in what should be a high scoring affair.
Isaiah Crowell: Crowell is shaping up to be a true game-time-decision this week. After his monster Week 5 game, Crowell received a normal workload in Week 6, but was predictably back to Earth with just 52 total yards against the Colts. He’s an easy fade even if he does suit up Sunday vs. Minnesota.
In Week 7, players with high projected ownership areTodd Gurley, Robert Woods, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Tarik Cohen, Adam Thielen, and Robby Anderson. It’s kind of a weird week without a lot of total consensus plays. A lot of good offense vs. good defense on the main Sunday slate…I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.