DFS Fades Week 8
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Dallas Cowboys. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 8, I’m fading…
Aaron Rodgers:It’s not you, Aaron, it’s me. In this price range, I’d simply rather spend on Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomesor Jared Goff. The Rams Defense looked good against San Francisco last weekend and has progressively allowed fewer and fewer yards per game over the last four games. I don’t expect Rodgers to be terrible, especially since he’s likely to have Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb back, but I don’t think he’ll have one of his highest ceiling games.
Travis Kelce: This too is about the alternatives. Kelce is $1300 more than the next most expensive TE (George Kittle) on DK, and $500 more than Kittle on FD. Frankly, I’m not paying for Kittle this week either with Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, and Trey Burtonin good spots for less, not to mention my bargain plays, David Njokuand C.J Uzomah.
Christian McCaffrey: Baltimore is a team that I don’t go out of my way to use players against. McCaffrey’s receiving game gives him an edge over other backs the Ravens have faced, but they’re allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing backs this season (not a new trend, either). This game carries one of the lowest totals of the week (43 points) and Baltimore is a small road favorite. With so many high end running backs I dolike (James Conner, Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley), there’s no room for McCaffrey in my lineups.
FWIW, there’s not a mid-upper tier receiver I feel really bad about this week. There should be a lot of variability there, especially in tournaments, so I wouldn’t worry about going chalky with your QB or RB.
Marlon Mack:After missing Thursday, Mack practiced in full on Friday. He’s a name to watch Sunday because even though his salary rose, he will get a great matchup with the Oakland Raiders. I wrote about Nyheim Hines in the bargain article, but if Mack plays, Hines will lose a ton of his opportunity. Go with the starter in this one.
Allen Robinson: Robinson played last week after barely practicing with a groin injury, but was wholly ineffective. I’m worried he’ll be used as a decoy again this week if he does play. My Bears receiving options are Burton and Taylor Gabriel, both of which should produce vs. the Jets iffy secondary.
Matt Breida: I’m so torn on Breida this week. I want him to rest and get fully healthy, but I also really want to see him shred the Cardinals, the league’s most generous RB matchup for fantasy. If the 49ers decide to rest Breida, then I’d be all in on the low salary of Raheem Mostert, who impressed in a not-great matchup with the Rams last week.
Paul Richardson and Chris Thompson: I like both players but not this week. Not only are they both still listed as questionable after practicing Friday, it’s hard to trust any Redskins with their poor play-calling and poorer execution this season. This is the game with the lowest point total of the week, and it’s almost a full avoid, despite the Giants being without several defensive starters due to injuries and trades.
In Week 8, players with high projected ownership areTodd Gurley, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, Phillip Lindsay, Doug Martin, Kareem Hunt, T.Y. Hilton, Andrew Luck, James Conner, and Bears D/ST . I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.