It’s that time again, and now we’re on to Week 10 of the NFL season. I’ve been asked what to look for more and more as the season goes on, and finding ripe opportunities due to injuries has been my go-to answer. Offenses are usually pretty easy to figure out when it comes to who benefits from someone missing, but there’s also a massive edge in finding trends with struggling defenses. I say this because there are a few spots I want to take advantage because of injuries this weekend. Let’s get into my top picks for FanDuel and DraftKings.
Cash Game Targets
Dak Prescott @ Atlanta Falcons
For the second straight season, this Atlanta defense ranks in the bottom half of the league against the pass. They’re 24th in DVOA against the pass and this defense also has the second-fewest interceptions against opposing quarterbacks. Dak presents a high floor against the Falcons, and he’s one of my favorite quarterback options on this slate. He has a 16:4 TD:INT ratio this season, and he leads all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns. Prescott is averaging 22 DraftKings points per game and has at least 22 DK points in five of the last six games. He continues to play at a high level, so he’s a top option in all formats this weekend.
Matthew Stafford vs. Cleveland Browns
Stafford continues to be a top option every week, and he has a great matchup against the Browns this weekend. He is averaging 38 passing attempts, which is the second most among quarterbacks, as well as 273.5 passing yards per game, and he’s first in red-zone attempts among quarterbacks. Cleveland ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass, but they’re ranked 1st in DVOA against the run. They’re allowing 241.88 passing yards and an average of two passing touchdowns per game. With this defense being so good against the run, the Lions will have to throw the ball more, which gives Stafford a high floor in this matchup.
Jared Goff vs. Houston Texans
It feels like every week I write up Goff in this article, but that's because every week he continues to be overlooked and underowned. He’s coming off a four-touchdown game against the Giants, and this week he faces a Texans Defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve had a lot of injuries in this defensive unit, and teams have really taken advantage of it over the last two weeks. They’ve allowed 760 passing yards and six passing touchdowns over those two matchups. On the season, Goff has a 13:4 TD:INT ratio, and his 13 passing touchdowns are the eighth most in the NFL. He’s averaging 5.2 red-zone attempts per game, which is the fifth most among quarterbacks this season. I think Goff has a lot of upside at home in what could be one of the higher scoring games of the week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. New York Jets
If you’re looking to pay down at quarterback this weekend, I think Fitzpatrick has some appealing upside against his former team. This is a sneaky game to target, and I won’t be shocked if it turns into a shootout in Tampa this weekend. Fitzpatrick is interesting because of his ability to run the football, as he had 30 yards rushing in the second half of the game last weekend. The Jets rank 21st in DVOA against the pass this season, and they’re allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve also allowed 19 passing touchdowns, which is the most by any defense. There is nothing safe about this pick, but there is some GPP upside at his price on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Cash Game Targets
Le’Veon Bell @ Indianapolis Colts
If you’re paying up for running back, you’re paying up for the floor that Bell provides against the Colts. He leads all running backs in snap percentage this season, and he comes in averaging 61.75 snaps per game. He also leads all running backs in touch percentage at 56.40%. Bell is averaging 28.63 touches per game and has over 35 touches in three of the last five games, and on top of all of that, he leads the NFL in carries and red-zone touches this season. Bell gives you an extremely high floor for cash games, but he’s certainly in play for tournaments as well this weekend.
Leonard Fournette vs. Los Angles Chargers
Even after 10 weeks of football, it’s still weird to call the Chargers the Los Angles Chargers. Back to DFS. I haven’t played a lot of Fournette this season, so he’s burned me a lot. I like this spot for him against the Chargers, and I think he is a solid play in all formats. The Chargers rank 26th in DVOA against the run, and they’re allowing 119.88 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. They’ve limited running backs when it comes to touchdowns, but that’s not going to scare me off a fresh Fournette. He hasn’t played a game in three weeks, so he should be well rested for this game against the Chargers. He is averaging 99.3 rushing yards per game, and he’s second in fantasy points per game among running backs.
LeSean McCoy vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints Defense has really improved against the pass this season, but they’re still beatable on the ground. They’re 28th in DVOA against the run and have faced some really weak running backs to boot. When they’ve been tested by good running backs, they’ve failed, and that’s why I like McCoy in this matchup. He burned everyone last week, but this is the spot to jump right back on him. After not scoring for the first five games, he’s had at least one touchdown in two of the last three games. He has a 75.4% opportunity share, which is the fifth highest among running backs, and McCoy also ranks in the top 11 in both rushing and receiving yards among running backs. What makes it even better, the Bills are third in rushing plays per game this season. This is a great bounce-back spot, and I hope people don’t go back to the well with this one.
Orleans Darkwa @ San Francisco 49ers
I don’t love a lot of cheap running backs on this slate, but Darkwa is certainly someone I’m looking at this weekend. He played 50% of the snaps last weekend and has over 18 touches in two of the last three games. Darkwa is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per touch this season. He’s been a touchdown away from having big weeks in three of the last four games, and at his current pricing, I think he has a lot of upside. The 49ers allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and they’re allowing 119 rushing yards per game this season. The Giants are also road favorites against the 49ers, so I expect them to keep the ball on the ground in this one.