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QB/RB Grind Down: Week 16

by Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:05 pm ET

Week 16 is upon us, and it brings Christmas food and joy along with it. Merry Christmas to you all, and let’s boost that bankroll on the night before Christmas. We have a 12-game slate on Christmas Eve, and some really nice spots to attack on this slate. Let’s get into my top plays for FanDuel.

 

 

 

QUARTERBACK

 

Cash Game Targets

 

Tom Brady: $9,000 (vs. New York Jets)

 

The Patriots have clinched the division and the bye, but they can clinch home field with a win and an Oakland loss. The Jets pass defense has been awful this season, and Matt Moore just threw four touchdowns against them last weekend. They’re ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass this season and will have nothing to slow down Brady this weekend. Brady is the highest-price quarterback on the slate, but he also has the highest floor. I’m not a big fan of paying up at quarterback, but it makes a lot of sense this weekend.

 

 

Matt Ryan: $8,100 (vs. Carolina Panthers)

 

We saw this matchup earlier this season, and Ryan threw for 503 yards and four passing touchdowns. It was the best game of the season for Ryan and he ended up with 36.52 FanDuel points. Carolina is allowing the most passing yards (291.57) per game this season. James Bradberry has been the one bright spot in this secondary, but as a whole, Carolina’s secondary has been very beatable. Julio Jones returned to a limited practice on Tuesday, and is trending in the right direction to play this weekend. Ryan has at least 17 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, and he’s thrown at least one passing touchdown in every game this season.

 

 

Tournament Targets

 

Kirk Cousins: $7,800 (vs. Chicago Bears)

 

The Redskins had a chance to win out and make the playoffs, but Cousins and the offense really struggled against Carolina on Monday night. They now need a lot of things to happen, but they also need to win out. Cousins is averaging 311 passing yards per game this season, and 19.2 FanDuel points per game. On paper this is a tough matchup and you want to attack the Bears with the run. With that being said, I have a hard time not seeing Gruden put the ball in Cousins’ hands and let him win this game for the Redskins. Cousins has a 30-point ceiling, and he shouldn’t be priced as the tenth quarterback on FanDuel.

 

Philip Rivers: $8,200 (vs. Cleveland Browns)

 

It’s nothing new at this point of the season; I love to attack the Cleveland Browns pass defense. They’re allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve allowed the most passing touchdowns this season. Rivers has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven-straight games now. He is 205 yards away from 4,000 on the season and one passing touchdown away from 30 passing touchdowns. I wish this game was in San Diego, but with it being in Cleveland they may be able to keep it close. Rivers has a ton of upside in this matchup this weekend.

 

 

 

RUNNING BACK

 

Cash Game Targets

 

LeSean McCoy: $9,100 (vs. Miami Dolphins)

 

Rex Ryan is on the hot seat right now and needs to win out for a chance to save his job. The Dolphins are fighting for a playoff spot, and the Jets can really spoil that in Buffalo this weekend. Miami is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the run and they’re allowing 101.71 rushing yards per game this season. McCoy has 602 yards from scrimmage over the last four games and he has at least 19.8 fantasy points in that same span. He’s been great down the stretch, and if you’re paying up this weekend, I really like McCoy for cash games.

 

 

Jordan Howard: $7,200 (vs. Washington Redskins)

 

Howard has quietly rushed for 1,059 yards this season, and has been great over the second half of the season. Washington is ranked 26th in DVOA against the run this season, and they’re allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Howard is averaging 21.71 touches per game over his last seven games. There are some tough matchups at running back this weekend, and I really like the matchup for Howard. We know he’s going to get the touches and should have no problem hitting value in this matchup.

 

 

Tournament Targets

 

Latavius Murray: $7,300 (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

 

I love this mid-range at running back this weekend, and like Howard, Murray has an excellent matchup against the Colts, who are ranked 29th in DVOA against the run this season. Murray is fourth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns this season and he has seven rushing touchdowns over the last six games. He rushes behind a top three offensive line and gets a nice bump being at home this weekend. The Raiders have clinched a playoff spot, but they’re still fighting with the Chiefs for the AFC West. I expect them to play hard this weekend, and Murray is a top back for me.

 

 

Ty Montgomery: $6,300 (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

 

A lot of people will see the matchup with the Vikings and they will instantly write off Montgomery this weekend. The Vikings run defense has really struggled since the bye week allowing over 90-yards rushing in seven of the last nine games. They’re dealing with a lot of injuries, and a team that was ranked in the top ten in DVOA is now ranked 16th against the run. Montgomery rushed for 162 yards on 16 carries last weekend, and even though he didn’t do a lot in the passing game, he is very capable of big receiving games as well. This is a must-win game for the Packers, and I expect them to have their best offense on the field.

Stevie "stevietpfl Young
Stevie "stevietpfl" Young is a top-ranked DFS player and GrindersLive host who specializes in NFL, MLB and NASCAR. He provides both written content and media work for RotoGrinders.