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Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section in Week 13 and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It's that simple. 

Tyrod Taylor – QB11

FanDuel: QB19 ($7,300) DraftKings QB20 ($5,400)

There are a lot of good quarterback plays this week, but oddly, most them are priced in accordance with our ranks. Tyrod still sticks out for us as a value this week, though, especially over on DraftKings where he’s a great cash game option. We always like Taylor for his floor and this season has been no different. This season he’s had 14 or more points in seven games of his games, but has lacked hitting that ceiling with just two games of 20 or more points. That ceiling could come this week as opposing passers attempt 37.6 pass attempts per game (third highest) and three of the top-nine games that Taylor has had in terms of pass attempts have come against New England, a team in which he’s scored 16 or more points against in three of his four games against while with Buffalo.


Josh McCown – QB16

DraftKings: QB19 ($5,500)

McCown has already set career-highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns at age 38 and has had a very peculiar season so far. McCown is tied with Matthew Stafford with a league-leading 11 touchdown passes from outside of the red zone, while ranking 26th in touchdown passes in the red zone (six). For some context, 65.9 percent of the touchdown passes in the league are thrown from inside of the red zone. That may scream regression, but McCown just keeps producing, regardless of opponent. McCown has 16 or more points in five of past six games and just posted a season-high of points posted on the Panthers at 25.1. The Chiefs have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just two of their past six games, but are allowing 13.1 yards per completion, 31st in the league and are allowing the fourth highest rate of passes to go for 20 or more yards on the season, something that plays into the principles of this Jets passing game.


Jordan Howard – RB4

FanDuel: RB8 ($7,500) DraftKings RB12 ($6,500)

Howard typically goes as the game script goes and this week is one of the rare opportunities that he is on the board as a home favorite. Not only is he a home favorite, which should boost his touch total, but the matchup also couldn’t be any better for those circumstances. The Bears backfield ranks ninth in the league in touches per game (30.7) while San Francisco faces 33.7 touches per game from opposing backfields, the most in the league. On those touches, the 49ers are 26th in rushing points (14.6) allowed per game to running backs while ranking 32nd in yards from scrimmage (172.5) allowed per game to opposing backfields. The touchdown upside is also prevalent here as no team has faced more plays run inside of their own 10-yard line this season than San Francisco (56) while Chicago has rushed the ball 73.3 percent of the time inside of the 10-yard line since Mitchell Trubisky took over as the starting quarterback, the second-highest rate in the league.



Marshawn Lynch – RB11

FanDuel: RB20 ($6,200) DraftKings RB28 ($4,800)

With the Raiders missing their top two playmakers last week and holding a lead, Lynch played a season-high 47 snaps in Week 12, handling a season-high 52.7 percent of the Oakland touches as a team. This week, the Raiders will be without both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree again, but this time Lynch gets a much better individual matchup at home against the Giants after amassing his output against a stiff Denver run defense. The Giants rank 22nd in yards per carry allowed to running backs (4.22) while ranking 22nd in rushing points allowed (13.6) allowed per game to backfields. His volume has been mostly down this season, but Lynch has been a top-10 back in two of his past three games while the matchup, absences at wide receiver and being at home as high favorite all align for him to be a value this weekend.


Mike Evans – WR3

FanDuel: WR11 ($7,500) DraftKings WR8 ($7,100)

Evans has had 10 or more targets in four of his past five games, but has been more of a floor play over the past month. This is a good spot for him to finally deliver a ceiling game for us while he’s priced as a lower-end WR1, however. 67.7 percent of the receiving yardage gained against the Packers has been put up by wide receivers, the second-highest share in the league behind his own team, while Green Bay specifically struggles against lead wideouts. The Packers have allowed at least 97 yards or a touchdown to seven of the WR1s they’ve faced on the season.


Davante Adams – WR11

FanDuel: WR31 ($6,500) DraftKings WR15 ($6,500)

Brett Hundley has targeted Adams on 28.6 percent of his throws overall while Adams was targeted by Rodgers on 20.4 percent. Adam hasn’t wasted those opportunities, either, posting 25 receptions for 351 yards and two scores over his past four games. Tampa Bay is facing the most targets per game (10.5) and allowing the most yardage (100.8 yards) to opposing WR1s while allowing the second-most touchdowns (eight). They are also getting torched vertically while Adams has a reception of 30 or more yards in each of his past three games. The Bucs are allowing the most completions (44), completion rate (55.7 percent) and touchdown passes (nine) on throws 15 yards or further downfield.


Cooper Kupp – WR20

FanDuel: WR34 ($6,300)

Kupp was on this last week and he delivered with eight receptions for 116 yards receiving with a season long 53-yard reception. With Robert Woods inactive, Kupp had a season-high 25 percent of the team targets. Woods will still be inactive this weekend while the rejuvenated Sammy Watkins will contend with Patrick Peterson for nearly 75 percent of his snaps on Sunday. Because of Peterson’s presence stopping opposing lead targets on the boundary, Arizona has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to slot receivers on the season, including a 4-51-1 line to Kupp himself when he had his previous season-high of 10 targets before the game last week.


Jared Cook – TE6

FanDuel: TE17 ($5,500)

Cook made this post a week ago and managed just one reception for five yards, but there’s still reason to go back to him this week on a site where he’s priced down. Despite his lowly performance a week ago, he still led the Raiders with 20.8 percent of their team targets and even had an end zone target that he couldn’t reel in. With both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper sidelined Sunday, Cook should lead the team in opportunity again, and that’s before we even highlight the matchup. The Giants rank 29th in receptions (5.6) and yards (69.8) allowed per game to opposing tight ends with a league-high 10 touchdowns allowed. Opposing tight ends have scored 37 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Giants, the highest share in the league.


Hunter Henry – TE8

FanDuel: TE19 ($5,400) DraftKings TE11 ($4,700)

The Chargers go in and out of favor of using Henry, but he hasn’t needed a lot of opportunity to thrive this season. In the six times he’s just received at least five targets in a game, Henry has been a TE1 in five of those games while averaging 12.8 PPR points and 10.6 FanDuel points per game. The team we target with tight ends the most after the Giants is the Browns, who Henry draws this week. Cleveland has allowed a tight end to score nine times on the season and in each of their past four games while ranking 32nd in receptions (6.2) and 25th in yardage (57.5) per game to the position.

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.