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Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

 

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It’s as easy as that. This week, we have an abnormal surplus of running back values, but no major discrpencies in pricing compared to our ranks at the tight end position, so I'm swapping in two extra running back plays in place of the tight end position.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo – QB9

FanDuel: QB13 ($7,400)


FanDuel quarterback pricing really lines up with our rankings this week when analyzing who we project to be the top starting-caliber options, but Garoppolo comes in a touch lower than where we have him. He made this article a week ago and was a bit of a letdown as the 49ers took the air out of the ball, with Jimmy G attempting just four passes in the 4th quarter. Nursing a lead is an unlikely scenario this week versus the Chiefs, however. The Chiefs have had the lead for 86.2 percent of their offensive snaps so far through two weeks -the highest rate in the league – and they’ve been scoring bucket of points. The 80 points scored by the Chiefs are their second-most in franchise history through two weeks. Albeit on the road, Kansas City has faced 60 and 51 pass attempts through two weeks while surrendering the QB1 and QB3 overall in fantasy those weeks.

 

Matt Ryan – Q12

DraftKings: QB18 ($5,700)


Ryan bounced back last week as the QB5 on both sites, but had his price remain exactly the same on DraftKings. Even without the two rushing touchdowns, Ryan was carving at home last week, completing 23-of-28 passes for 9.7 yards per attempt in a game where Julio Jones did next to nothing. This week he’s priced a mid-QB2 at home again against a Saints defense while attached to the third-highest team total of the weekend.

 

Kareem Hunt – RB8

DraftKings: RB17 ($6,000)


Despite the Chiefs offense seemingly scoring every drive this season through two weeks, Hunt has left owners wanting more as he’s totaled just 129 yards from scrimmage. The worst part is that with Patrick Mahomes slinging the ball down the field, Hunt has been an afterthought in the passing game, receiving just two targets. Hunt has been targeted on just 2-of-33 routes (6.1 percent). He was targeted on 20.5 percent of his routes during his rookie season. Because of that, Hunt’s pricing has nose-dived, going from the RB6 in Week 1, all the way down to the RB17 this week in DraftKings pricing. The Chiefs have 10 offensive touchdowns, but none are rushing, something that certainly will reverse if they keep scoring so many points. The average touchdown production to come on the ground is 33.5 percent over the past decade. With the Chiefs having the highest implied team total of the week at 31 points, Hunt makes for an intriguing tournament option given his ceiling depressed cost and ceiling capability.

 

Latavius Murray – RB12

FanDuel: RB56 ($5,200) DraftKings: RB19 ($5,800)


With Dalvin Cook inactive, Murray takes the wheel for the Minnesota run game this Sunday at home against the Bills. In 12 games with Cook out of the lineup a year ago, Murray averaged 17.9 touches per game. That was sharing a backfield with Jerick McKinnon. This Sunday, he’ll share time with rookie backs Mike Boone and Roc Thomas. The situation also couldn’t be better as a gigantic home favorite against the defense that allowed the most touchdowns to opposing running backs a year ago and has already allowed six scores to backs through two games to start of the 2018 season.

 

Giovani Bernard – RB13

FanDuel: RB28 ($6,400) DraftKings: RB18 ($5,900)


We knew Joe Mixon was going to be out this week before pricing dropped, but Bernard still game in lower than expected in what should be a workhorse role this weekend at Carolina. The Bengals released backup running back and potential goal-line threat Tra Carson while Mark Walton has been a healthy inactive each of the first two weeks. In the four games that Joe Mixon missed outright or played 17 or fewer snaps Weeks 13-16 in 2017, Giovani Bernard averaged 19.8 touches for 109.3 yards from scrimmage per game. He was the RB25, RB14, RB19 and the RB3 over that span. He can’t be scripted out of the game while Panthers have ranked 30th in yards per carry (5.4 yards) to opposing backfields through two weeks.

 

Corey Clement – RB24

FanDuel: RB41 ($5,800) DraftKings: RB48 ($4,300)


Clement is in a similar situation as Bernard with both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles inactive this week. That leaves Clement to share a backfield attached to a six-point home favorite with just Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams. Clement had 85 yards on just 11 touches last week while the Colts have allowed 22 receptions for 187 yards through two weeks to opposing backfields. Clement himself did have a limited practice on Friday, but appears to good to go for the game. The Eagles have been known to use a rotation in their backfield, but Clement will still be in line to have arguably his largest workload of the season this weekend. 

 

Chris Hogan – WR20

FanDuel: WR41 ($6,200)


We have Hogan as someone on the lower-WR2 range of output this weekend, but FanDuel still has him in the WR4 bucket of pricing, which can free up a lot of space for you to cram in some heavy-hitters while still holding on to above average touchdown upside this deep in the player pool. Hogan has caught at least one touchdown in seven of his past 14 games with nine total over that span. Hogan is set up in his best matchup of the season with Detroit reeling defensively and Darius Slay not practicing at all this week while in concussion protocol.

 

Kenny Golladay – WR23

FanDuel: WR53 ($5,800)


In the same game, there’s an even cheaper option to free up cap space. Despite catching 13-of-21 targets for 203 yards and a touchdown through two games, Golladay’s pricing on FanDuel has somehow dropped from the $6,100 mark it opened up as in Week 1. New England is coming of a road game in which they allowed the top-three wideouts from the Jaguars to combine to catch 15-of-22 targets for 233 yards a touchdown per player, giving you a high-target, salary-saving option.

 

Robert Woods – WR24

DraftKings: WR42 ($5,100)


Even after a modest six catches and 81 yards and a WR35 scoring week last week, Woods has now seen his price drop on DraftKings from $6,400 in Week 1 to $5,900 on Week 2 and now fall all of the way down to $5,100 this weekend. That’s now strong value for the opportunity Woods is receiving attached to the best offense west of Kansas City to start the season. Despite the strong start from the freshly acquired Brandin Cooks, it’s actually Woods who leads the Rams receivers in targets (18) air yards (268) and end zone targets (three), but just hasn’t gotten over that hurdle of making them all come together, which will surely happen if he continues to see those opportunities.

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.