Loading scores...
Daily Archives

Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It’s as easy as that.

 

Andy Dalton – QB13

DraftKings: QB19 ($5,400)

 

We have Dalton right outside of the top-12 fantasy options this weekend, but DraftKings has him as a lower-end QB2, with his price matching the lowest point that it has been so far this season. That’s curious because Dalton has out-kicked his Week 4 cost in every game so far this season, scoring 17.5, 26.6 and 21.1 points on DraftKings so far on the season. Dalton has multiple touchdowns in each of the first three games and has thrown 42 and 46 passes the past two weeks The Bengals-Falcons game has the highest game total (53.5 points) on the main slate and the Falcons just lost another defensive starter for the season in Ricardo Allen.

 

Case Keenum – QB15

FanDuel: QB27 ($6,500)

 

Keenum has had two down weeks in a row after a strong Week 1 showing, but at home on Monday Night in the game that has the highest game total (55 points) of the week is a good spot for him to bounce back and crush his depressed cost on FanDuel. The Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on 35.5 percent of their opposition's possessions, 31st in the league (New Orleans, 37.5 percent). On top of that, they are allowing the most passing yardage (375.7 yards) and second-most passing points (25.0) per game to passers while allowing the overall fantasy QB3, QB1 and QB11 through three games.

 

Giovani Bernard – RB7

FanDuel: RB24 ($6,400) DraftKings: RB13 ($6,300)

 

With Joe Mixon already declared out for this Sunday’s game, we have Bernard as a set-and-forget RB1 option against the Falcons. With Mixon out last week, Bernard tallied 17 touches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Bernard handled 92 percent of the Cincinnati rushing attempts last week and is in line to showcase his receiving skills out of the backfield as Atlanta allowed has 14 and 15 receptions to lead backs over the past two weeks and has consistently been a defense we target for receiving production from running backs.

 

Chris Carson – RB17

FanDuel: RB24 ($6,400) DraftKings: RB24 ($4,600)

 

Seattle finally settled on one running back a week ago and it paid off handsomely. Chris Carson played 72.5 percent of the offensive snaps Week 3 after playing 43.9 percent and 28.8 percent over the first two weeks. He turned all of those snaps into a gaudy 34 touches and 124 yards while also finding the end zone. Stacking touches is something backs have found all too familiar when facing the Cardinals, who Carson plays this Sunday. Opposing backfields averaged 31.3 rushing attempts and 37.0 touches per game against Arizona, the most in the league.

 

 

Kenny Golladay – WR23

FanDuel: WR50 ($5,800)

 

There’s not a ton to write about in terms of Golladay’s matchup as much as there is about him continuing to be severely underpriced for his workload. Golladay ranks second on the Lions in targets (28), receptions (19) and receiving yardage (256) with two touchdowns on the season, receiving at least seven targets and catching at least six passes in all three games played.

 

Sterling Shepard – WR26

FanDuel: WR42 ($6,200) DraftKings: WR44 ($4,900)

 

Shepard has seven targets in each of his past two games and found the end zone for the first time a week ago, while he gets a target bump with Evan Engram out of action. The timing couldn’t be much better in a home matchup against a Saints defense that has struggled and just placed their top slot defender in Patrick Robinson on injured reserve. The Saints have allowed a league-high nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers through three games and have allowed the pass completions of 40-yards or more (five), all going to opposing wideouts.

 

John Brown – WR27

FanDuel: WR42 ($6,200)

 

Finally maintaining his health to begin the season, Brown has gone from 10.5 percent to 18.2 percent to 22.5 percent of the Baltimore targets per week. His 23 targets trail only Michael Crabtree (26), but he leads the Ravens with 222 receiving yards and two touchdowns on the strength on having a 40-yard reception in each of the past two weeks while having at least a 25-yard catch every week of the year. The Steelers have had a ton of issues on the back end defensively, allowing five top-25 scoring receivers through three games on the season.

 

Tyler Eifert – TE9

FanDuel: TE25 ($4,600)

 

Eifert has yet to score a touchdown on the season, but that is masking the fact that he’s consistently gotten more and more involved in every week of the early season. After playing 40 percent of the snaps Week 1, Eifert has played 64.5 percent and 64.6 percent the past two weeks, running 30 and 34 routes those two games after just 16 in Week 1 while he’s coming off a season-high eight targets a week ago, catching six for 74 yards. We mentioned the Falcons injuries in the open with Andy Dalton, but all of those injuries (both safeties and their middle linebacker) directly tie-in to defending Eifert.

 

O.J. Howard – TE10

DraftKings: TE13 ($3,500)

 

Howard is another tight end who has continued to see his opportunity rise each week of the season. After two and four targets in each of the first two games, he’s coming off a 6-72-0 game on eight targets on Monday night. Howard also carries major upside with what he’s done on his receptions dating back to last season. After averaging 16.6 yards per catch as a rookie, Howard is averaging 20.2 yards per reception this season and that number is still lofty for a tight end at 14.7 yards if you want to remove his 75-yard catch and run in Week 2. The Bears have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in each of the past two weeks.

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.