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Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 27, 2018, 9:11 am ET

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It’s as easy as that.

 

Jared Goff – QB4

DraftKings: QB10 ($6,000)

 

Goff has seen his fantasy production drop off the past three weeks as Todd Gurley keeps punching in short-range scores and the Rams have cruised through games with huge leads. Over the past two weeks, the Rams have run the ball 55.6 percent of their offensive plays after throwing the ball 54.6 percent of the time through five games. With the Packers coming into town finally fully healthy offensively, Green Bay should threaten to score near the 30 points the Rams have allowed over the past two games combined to teams quarterbacked by Case Keenum and C.J. Beathard. Prior to those weeks, the Rams had allowed 31 points in each of the previous two games to Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. Goff also is coming home after a three-game road trip. In three games at home, Goff has thrown for 354, 354 and 465 yards  with nine total touchdowns.

 

Jameis Winston – QB6

FanDuel: QB10 ($7,800)

 

Winston’s price has been slow to climb despite scoring 32.7 and 22.1 points on FanDuel in his two starts. With his 365 yards passing last week, Winston has now thrown for over 360 yards in four consecutive starts dating back to last season. He’s also adding production with this legs. Winston has added 29 and 55 yards rushing in his two starts. The Bengals are 30th in passing yardage allowed per game (310.9) and are 28th in passing points allowed per game (19.3).

 

Phillip Lindsay – RB10

FanDuel: RB20 ($6,500) DraftKings: RB21 ($5,200)

 

Lindsay gets a boost with Royce Freeman officially out for Sunday. The Chiefs rank 32nd in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (41.3 percent) and rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (18.1 percent) while Lindsay leads all qualifying backs in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (45.3 percent) and ranks fourth in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (17.3 percent). Last time these teams met the Broncos were able to control the game script throughout, but even if they fall behind here on the road, Lindsay was targeted a season-high seven times two weeks ago when the Broncos trailed throughout.

 

Raheem Mostert – RB25

FanDuel: RB41 ($5,700) DraftKings: RB47 ($3,800)

 

Mostert is another backup running back that could be elevated by Sunday if Matt Breida is officially ruled out for Sunday. Breida has rallied to recover late in the week before, but if he’s out we like Mostert as a lower-end RB2. Mostert has 23 touches for 165 yards the past two weeks and has out-touched Alfred Morris 23-9 in those games. Even if Morris does get a smattering of touches, Mostert can still do damage against an Arizona team that is allowing 186.6 yards per game to opposing backfields -the most in the league- and allowed 49ers backs to total 248 yards on 43 touches back in Week 5.

 

Jarvis Landry – WR15

FanDuel: WR24 ($6,700)

 

Landry snapped out of a small slump with 10 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown last week and once again finds himself in a high-volume spot attached to a favorable matchup. Landry has double-digit targets in six of seven games this season and the Steelers are allowing a league-high 110.9 receiving yards per game to opposing lead wideouts, including 106 yards to Landry back in Week 1. On top of that, the Steelers have allowed receivers from the slot to post lines of 8-91-1, 9-128-1 and 7-105-1 over their past three games.

 

Michael Crabtree – WR28

DraftKings: WR39 ($4,800)

 

Crabtree has hovered right around being a value at this cost all season in full-PPR formats. He has at least five receptions in 6-of-7 games while averaging 9.7 targets per game, which ranks 15th among all wideouts. That volume should remain intact here as Joe Flacco is third in the league in attempts per game (43.3) and the Panthers rank 20th in receptions allowed per game (13.5) to opposing wide receivers.

 

Jordy Nelson – WR31

FanDuel: WR57 ($5,300) DraftKings: WR40 ($4,700)

 

From one floor play wideout to another, Nelson has fewer than 50 yards in 6-of-7 games. With Oakland moving Amari Cooper this past week, Nelson is in line to see some increased usage, but the extent of that is unknown. With the Colts playing so much zone defense, he could be in a position to stack production underneath. Despite not having a ton of use so far, Nelson has been efficient, catching 71 percent of his targets for 10.4 yards per target. Even with Cooper on the roster, Nelson was second on the team with six red zone targets and four coming inside of the 10-yard line.

 

David Njoku – TE6

FanDuel: TE13 ($5,700) DraftKings: TE9 ($4,600)

 

Njoku been the TE5 in overall scoring since Baker Mayfield took over as the starter and is tied for second at the position with 22 receptions over that span with Travis Kelce. This Sunday, he is once again in a good spot to put that usage into effect as he draws another positive matchup versus the Steelers. Opposing teams have targeted their tight ends a league-high 26.5 percent of the time against Pittsburgh while the position has accounted for 30.3 percent of the receptions against the Steelers, the largest share in the league.

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.