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Week 15 Grind Down: WR/TE

by Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:02 pm ET

Time flies when you are having fun.

 

Truer words have never been spoken. It’s hard to believe that we are already to Week 15 in the NFL season. The picks from last week performed well, as Odell Beckham Jr., Eric Decker, and Alshon Jeffery all had big fantasy outings. We will look to keep the good selections going this week.

 

 

All prices below are from FanDuel.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Cash Game Targets:

 

Julio Jones: $8,600 (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)

Snap Count Percentage:         65.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             17.3%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       Jacksonville Jaguars

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     16 of 32

 

Jones is the premier play at wide receiver this week. Antonio Brown has to face a tough Denver secondary and Odell Beckham Jr. will have to lock horns with the best corner in the NFL, Josh Norman. That leaves Jones as the top play at the position. He should be in for some positive touchdown regression soon, as he doesn’t have a single touchdown in any of his last five games. He draws a decent matchup this week against a Jaguars’ defense that is more equipped to stop the run than they are the pass.

 

 

Alshon Jeffery: $7,900 (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         93.6%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             15.7%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Minnesota Vikings

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     15 of 32

 

Jeffery missed practice on Thursday, but he was able to participate on Friday and is now on track to play on Sunday. He has been a terrific fantasy option since returning from injury and he is facing a Vikings’ secondary that he torched a few weeks back. In their first meeting, Jeffery had ten receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown. With Martellus Bennett done for the season, Jeffery should see a heaping dose of targets again this week.

 

 

Jeremy Maclin: $6,700 (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         91.7%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             18.6%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       Baltimore Ravens

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     31 of 32

 

When it comes to value at wide receiver, Maclin stands out like a sore thumb. Over the last three weeks, he has a target percentage of 18.6%, which rivals that of a Julio Jones or an Antonio Brown. He draws a terrific matchup this week against the Ravens, who have allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

 

 

 

Tournament Targets:

 

Calvin Johnson: $8,000 (vs. New Orleans Saints)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         96.7%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             12.9%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       New Orleans Saints

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     18 of 32

 

Johnson may look like an obvious play to many, but he will likely draw the coverage of Delvin Breaux, who is an excellent corner. For me, that takes him out of cash game consideration, but given his upside, he is still worth a look in tournaments. The Saints have had arguably the worst passing defense in the NFL this season.

 

 

Jarvis Landry: $7,100 (vs. San Diego Chargers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:         81.4%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             18.5%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       San Diego Chargers

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     8 of 32

 

Landry is coming off of a big game against the Giants. He failed to find the end zone, but he caught 11 balls for 99 yards on Monday night. Most people in daily fantasy are going to be on Lamar Miller this week, because the Chargers’ run defense has been so bad. A nice pivot in tournaments is Landry. If the Chargers are able to stop the run, Landry could have a big game and he’ll likely have a fairly low ownership.

 

 

Michael Floyd: $6,100 (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)

Snap Count Percentage:         63.8%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             10.1%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       Philadelphia Eagles

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     32 of 32

 

Floyd sees a lot of deep targets, which is always great for upside. He has also been a touchdown machine recently, scoring at least one touchdown in five of his last seven games. The Eagles have been burned deep on numerous occasions this season and they have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL this season.

 

 

 

Tight End

 

Cash Game Target:

 

Antonio Gates: $5,800 (vs. Miami Dolphins)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)

Snap Count Percentage:         56.1%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             11.2%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       Miami Dolphins

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     29 of 32

 

Gates isn’t going to be the chalk play at tight end this week, but he is my favorite in a points-per-dollar sense. He is basically the top receiving option left on the Chargers and he is facing a Dolphins’ defense that is ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. Gates should see double-digit targets in a favorable matchup. What’s not to like?

 

 

Tournament Target:

 

Gary Barnidge: $6,400 (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)

Snap Count Percentage:         85.4%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):             11.7%

           

Matchup

Opponent:       Seattle Seahawks

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):     27 of 32

 

Barnidge seems to have a higher floor with a healthy Josh McCown, but this is a good spot to use him in tournaments. The Browns are 14-point underdogs this week against the Seahawks, so they may be forced to abandon the run game early. The Seahawks have also struggled against tight ends, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.

Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth is ranked #7 Overall, has won a $50,000 Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship, qualified for the 2013 FanDuel Basketball Championship, and is a lead contributor on RotoGrinders.com. When he’s not winning daily fantasy contests, the Talented Mr. Noto can be found on Twitter @RG_Notorious.