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Week 16 Grind Down: WR/TE

by Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:02 pm ET

Happy Holidays everyone!

 

Christmas is always a busy time of year, but hopefully you can break away from your plans to make some NFL lineups on FanDuel this weekend. There are only two more weeks in the regular season, so we should take advantage of the big slates before the playoffs start.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Cash Game Targets:

 

Antonio Brown: $9,300 (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          96.4%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  16.2%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Baltimore Ravens

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         14 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      30 of 32

 

Brown is coming off of a 16-reception, 189-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the best secondary in the NFL (Broncos). Some of that was aided by the fact that the Steelers were playing from behind all game, but it just goes to show that he is arguably the most matchup-proof receiver in the NFL. He will be licking his chops for this week’s matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

 

 

Kamar Aiken: $6,600 (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          83.6%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  14.6%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Pittsburgh Steelers

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         27 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      32 of 32

 

I went back and forth between Aiken and Jeremy Maclin as my cash game and tournament target. I ended up giving the edge to Aiken in cash games, because the game script favors him more than Maclin. Aiken has really played well since taking over as the number one receiver in Baltimore and this is a game where the Ravens will be forced to air it out. It also doesn’t hurt that the Steelers have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL this season.

 

 

Rueben Randle: $5,700 (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          84.7%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  8.3%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Minnesota Vikings

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         11 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      13 of 32

 

Odell Beckham Jr. tried to get his suspension lifted, but it was upheld. He will miss this week’s game against the Vikings, which means Randle will step in as the number one receiver in the Giants’ offense. While I don’t love the matchup against the Vikings, the price and opportunity are too good to pass up. Randle should see double-digit targets in a game where they could be playing from behind.

 

 

 

Tournament Targets:

 

Allen Robinson: $8,400 (vs. New Orleans Saints)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          94.6%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  13.1%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       New Orleans Saints

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         28 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      18 of 32

 

Robinson and the Jaguars’ passing offense are in a great spot this week against the Saints, who like to give out five-touchdown performances like they are cupcakes. The Saints have the worst pass defense in the NFL and they are ranked 28th in DVOA against number one wide receivers. Robinson has an extremely high ceiling this week in New Orleans.

 

 

Martavis Bryant: $7,200 (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          68.5%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  13.9%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Baltimore Ravens

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         14 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      30 of 32

 

After Antonio Brown blew up last week, everyone is going to be on him in Week 16. While I love Brown for cash games, he is going to be a little too chalky in tournaments. A good pivot is to take Bryant, who has similar upside in the Steelers’ offense. The best part is that if Bryant has a big game, it will likely eat into the production of Brown, which in turn will help you gain an edge on the field.

 

 

Jeremy Maclin: $6,900 (vs. Cleveland Browns)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          90.7%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  18.6%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Cleveland Browns

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         20 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      25 of 32

 

Maclin has become a target monster over the last three weeks. During that stretch, only Julio Jones has a higher target percentage. The main concern here is that the Chiefs are large favorites against a Browns’ defense that has been awful against the run. That should help lower Maclin’s ownership, making him a strong tournament play.

 

 

 

Tight End

 

Cash Game Target:

 

Greg Olsen: $6,800 (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          83.1%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  10.5%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Atlanta Falcons

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders): 10 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      27 of 32

 

Olsen had a great start in his first meeting against the Falcons, but he hurt his knee and didn’t end up playing the last two-and-a-half quarters. Olsen should see a full complement of snaps this week, as the Panthers will look to their undefeated record intact. He is the safest tight end target on the board this week.

 

 

 

Tournament Target:

 

Will Tye: $5,100 (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          73.5%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  8.1%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Minnesota Vikings

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders): 26 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      11 of 32

 

As mentioned above, Odell Beckham Jr. has been suspended for this week’s game against the Vikings. That should give a nice boost in targets to both Rueben Randle and Will Tye. Tye has come on in recent weeks and he draws a favorable matchup against the Vikings, who are ranked 26th in DOVA against tight ends this season.

Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth is ranked #7 Overall, has won a $50,000 Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship, qualified for the 2013 FanDuel Basketball Championship, and is a lead contributor on RotoGrinders.com. When he’s not winning daily fantasy contests, the Talented Mr. Noto can be found on Twitter @RG_Notorious.