Loading scores...
Daily Archives

Week 17 Grind Down: WR/TE

by Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:02 pm ET

It’s a sad, sad day in the world of weekly fantasy football. This is the last full slate on FanDuel until next September. There will be leagues during the playoffs, but they just aren’t the same and we end up having a lot of overlap between picks.

 

 

Let’s end the season with a bang!

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Cash Game Targets:

 

Antonio Brown: $9,100 (vs. Cleveland Browns)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          95.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  16.9%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Cleveland Browns

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         22 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      23 of 32

 

Brown let a lot of people down last week against the Ravens, but it was a strange game. He had a touchdown reversed and after that the Steelers’ passing game just couldn’t get anything going. They are in a must-win situation against the Browns this week and I expect them to lean heavily on their superstar. It doesn’t hurt that the Browns are a bottom ten defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to receivers.

 

 

Eric Decker: $7,400 (vs. Buffalo Bills)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          90.3%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  11.9%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Buffalo Bills

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         5 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      25 of 32

 

Decker has been a fantasy monster this season. He has either had 80 receiving yards or caught a touchdown (or both) in every game that he has played in. You aren’t to find that kind of consistency anywhere else, especially not at a price of $7,400. The Jets find themselves in a must-win situation, as they control their own destiny this week. If they win, they are into the playoffs.

 

 

Jeremy Maclin: $7,100 (vs. Oakland Raiders)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          90.9%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  16.4%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Oakland Raiders

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         10 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      15 of 32          

 

Maclin continues to get peppered with targets. Over the last four weeks, he has had a target rate that is nearly identical to Julio Jones’ and Antonio Brown’s. The Chiefs have a lot to play for this week, as they could still win the division if the Broncos lose to the Chargers. The Chiefs are large favorites on the NFL odds board, but Maclin should have plenty of opportunities to exceed value at this price.

 

 

 

Tournament Targets:

 

Odell Beckham Jr.: $8,900 (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          97.0%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  12.4%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Philadelphia Eagles

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         23 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      31 of 32

 

Julio Jones and Antonio Brown will likely be the popular picks at wide receiver this week, which gives us an opportunity to take Beckham at a fairly low ownership level. He has just as much upside as the other two receivers and he is actually a bit cheaper. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

 

 

Jarvis Landry: $7,200 (vs. New England Patriots)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          74.9%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  17.6%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       New England Patriots

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         17 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      20 of 32

 

This is one of those situations where the matchup may not look great on paper, but the game flow should dictate a heavy workload going Landry’s way. The Dolphins are ten-point underdogs this week against the Patriots, which means they will likely be playing catch up for most of the game. In case you didn’t know, garbage time fantasy points are worth just as much as those that are accumulated in close games.

 

 

Jordan Matthews: $6,600 (vs. New York Giants)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          84.5%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  11.2%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       N.Y. Giants

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):         15 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      21 of 32

 

Matthews has been one of the biggest fantasy busts of the season, but he has come on strong on the last two weeks, catching 14 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Better late than never, right? Matthews draws an exploitable matchup this week against the Giants, who have not been particularly good at defending the run or the pass this season.

 

 

 

Tight End

 

Cash Game Target:

 

Greg Olsen: $6,600 (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          83.1%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  9.4%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders): 19 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      21 of 32

 

The Panthers lost last week to the Falcons, which means they now need a win to secure home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. The starters may end up sitting out the fourth quarter if it’s a blowout, but Olsen is still the top target at tight end. He draws a favorable matchup against Lovie Smith’s Cover 2 defense that has always allowed tight ends to have success.

 

 

Tournament Target:

 

Zach Ertz: $5,700 (vs. New York Giants)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)        

Snap Count Percentage:          77.8%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):  14.8%

           

Matchup         

Opponent:       N.Y. Giants

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders): 24 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):      30 of 32

 

Ertz is a talented pass-catching tight end, but he has been absent (at least in the box scores) for most of the season. He has come on strong in the last three weeks though, as he has 26 receptions for 298 yards and a touchdown. He is worth a look in tournaments against the Giants, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth is ranked #7 Overall, has won a $50,000 Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship, qualified for the 2013 FanDuel Basketball Championship, and is a lead contributor on RotoGrinders.com. When he’s not winning daily fantasy contests, the Talented Mr. Noto can be found on Twitter @RG_Notorious.