DFS Fades Week 4
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Arizona Cardinals. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 4, I’m fading…
Expensive QBs: There is too much value at the QB position this week for me to pay up for Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. Both have fine matchups but I think we’ll see several cheaper options putting up 30 fantasy points this week. Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning are all candidates. I’m NOT fading Tom Brady, though (second-most expensive option on both sites).
Michael Thomas: Thomas and Alvin Kamara are the most expensive options at their positions. There are a lot of reasons to love both of them, and I do, but this week, Evan Silva and others think that not only could this game be a shootout, but that New York could come away with a win. If both teams are going to score around 30-plus points, I’m going to roster Manning and Odell Beckham Jr, Saquon Barkley, my man Sterling Shepard, and/or even Rhett Ellison and have enough salary leftover to fit Ezekiel Elliott or Julio Jones too.
Amari Cooper: I wrote about the Browns D/ST in my bargain article, and my heavy utilization of it on both sites is making it impossible for me to go in on any Raiders this week. They are averaging the fifth-fewest points per game, and Derek Carr has thrown five interceptions with only two touchdowns. Cooper could have a random breakout game, but I believe Cleveland’s defense will shut him down.
Josh Allen: Even without two rushing touchdowns, Allen would have still been better than Nate Peterman. But his performance still felt a little flukey to me. One argument could surely be that if he did it in Minnesota, he can do it in Green Bay, a much more favorable on-paper matchup. But maybe we overrated the Vikings D? With so many other cheap options I’ve seen more of and prefer (Manning, Dalton, C.J. Beathard), Allen isn’t making the cut for me this week and neither are any other Bills. If he does it again, I’ll buy in.
Dallas Goedert: Goedert’s Week 3 could be inspiring some recency bias, but his perfect 7/7/73 stat line, with a touchdown grab, came as the Eagles were severely short-handed. They are likely to have Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, and Alshon Jeffrey back in the lineup for the matchup with Tennessee. I fully expect Goedert to be a non-factor. Cheap TE options include Ellison and Tyler Eifert, Trey Burton on DK.
DeAndre Hopkins: There are only so many salary cap dollars to go around, and I keep passing Hopkins by as I build lineups. I don’t have anything really negative to say about him, I just think OBJ, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and even perhaps Keenan Allen have just as much or more fantasy potential.
Keenan Allen:One of the biggest names I’m watching. It’s a fantastic situation if he’s healthy. He’s slated to be one of my highest owned players.
Doug Baldwin: Looks like he’ll be back in action for the first time since early on in Week 1. I’m not super excited about Baldwin on FD, but he is very affordable on DK. As a large field tournament play only, he could big a Week 4 surprise if Russell Wilson can find some time behind the Seahawks shaky offensive line. Note that Chris Carsonis also headed for a game time decision with a hip injury. I’m avoiding Rashad Penny in the even Carson is inactive.
Leonard Fournette: He practiced fully Friday, but still projects as a game time decision. I think he’s too risky with guys like Elliot and Barkley in such good matchups this week.
Matt Breida: This one is worrisome, since he was a full participant earlier in the week. The 49ers would love to have him on the field to take advantage of a Chargers pass defense that should give him room to run after the catch. Watch closely. If Breida is out, I’d bump George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin more than Alfred Morris.
In Week 4, players with high projected ownership are Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Giovanni Bernard, Tevin Coleman, Ezekiel Elliott, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jaguars D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.