Sevens are lucky, right?
Don’t test your luck this week with guys priced in the top-10 who either haven’t performed that well or are in stingy matchups. Instead, use that luck for the lower priced guys with high upside. You can’t have it all. Even a Genie only gives you three wishes.
Here are some players that I don’t think will perform up to their price tags and therefore I’ll fade.
Matt Ryan at Tennessee for $8,100
Even after three fumbles last week, and with only one game of 20 or more FanDuel points on the season, Matt Ryan is still the 6th most expensive quarterback on the board. The matchup is fine, but the team doesn’t need him. Atlanta just hands the ball to Devonta Freeman and they let the chips fall where they may. You could argue that this week they will try to get Julio Jones more involved if he’s healthy, but the upside at this price is too minimal to justify putting Matt Ryan in your lineup. Look lower. This week there are quite a few deals at the quarterback position that could yield more points.
Jonathan Stewart versus Philadelphia for $6,700
Along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Philadelphia Eagles have yet to give up a rushing or receiving touchdown to an opposing running back in the 2015 regular season. You’ll be temped to play Stewart after his two touchdown performance at Seattle, but don’t. If Stewart doesn’t get into the end zone, he’s only been good for five to 10 points in a game. That’s all he did until last week, so don’t be fooled by that seemingly low price tag. Without the touchdown upside, he’s priced that way for a reason.
Doug Martin at Washington for $7,200
Yes, Devnota Freeman and Chris Ivory were able to run on Washington, but every other back was entirely shut down this season when facing off against their aggressive defensive line. There are two big differences between Martin’s chances and those of Freeman and Ivory. First, the offensive lines, and the run blocking in particular, are much better on the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets. In every facet, the Tampa Bay offensive line is inferior to those two teams. Also, both Atlanta and the Jets present premium passing offenses that forced the Washington defense to spread around their focus. There is no Julio Jones in Tampa. There is no Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker tandum in Tampa. In fact, Mike Evans has 174 receiving yards on the season! I like Doug Martin in better matchups, but this week, I’m steering clear.
Odell Beckham Jr. versus Dallas for $9,000
This super star wide receiver keeps missing practices due to his lingering hamstring issue. He assures everyone that he’ll play, he’s just taking every precaution possible. That may be so, but I don’t love playing a guy with a soft tissue injury. Those come back… often. Also, the Dallas defense is getting into a groove and allow the 10th fewest FanDuel point to opposing wide receivers. There are too many factors working against him to pay $9,000, especially in a week when there are so many bargains at the wide receiver position.
Julio Jones at Tennessee for $9,100
I made this call on Wednesday prior to finding out that Jones wasn’t on the injury report for the first time this season. Hopefully that makes the difference because over the last three weeks he’s only caught 15 passes for 198 yards and no touchdowns – combined. There is no denying that Julio Jones is one of the greatest athletes playing the game today, but again, this is a hefty price tag for a guy that was grappling with a hamstring issue against a top-10 defense when defending wide outs. Hopefully he can get back to early season form. If he does that, he’s worth every penny. If he has a setback, not so much.
Rob Gronkowski versus the New York Jets for $8,100
It’s beginning to look like 2015 is the year of the breakout tight end. Rob Gronkowski is still the premium option, but he’s priced like it. You can save thousands of dollars on your salary cap by playing Gary Barnidge, Anotnio Gates, Delanie Walker, even Greg Olsen is $1,700 less. The Jets are allowing an average of 31 yards per game to opposing tight ends. I’m sure Gronk will exceed that number, but will he exceed the numbers of all the guys I just mentioned? I’m not so sure.
It’s the end of October and luck is everywhere. Heck, the New York Mets are going to the World Series! Anything is possible.
Good luck in Week “lucky number” 7.