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Wild Card Grind Down: WR/TE

by Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Updated On: December 3, 2018, 6:02 pm ET

The regular season is in the books, but that doesn’t mean that weekly fantasy football is over. There are plenty of leagues on FanDuel this week, from large double-ups and 50/50s to big tournaments. With only four games on the schedule, there will be a lot of overlap when it comes to ownership. Gauging ownership levels can give us a sizable advantage in tournaments.

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Cash Game Targets:

 

Antonio Brown: $9,500 (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               95.9%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      22.0%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Cincinnati Bengals

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):                13 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            10 of 32

 

Brown is the premier play at wide receiver this week and an extremely tough fade in cash games. DeAngelo Williams is out, which means the Steelers will likely lean heavily on their passing game. To make matters better, Ben Roethlisberger seems to have lost faith in Martavis Bryant. Brown could easily see 15+ targets in this one, with a number of those coming in the redzone.

 

Jeremy Maclin: $7,200 (vs. Houston Texans)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               83.9%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      12.8%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Houston Texans

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):                8 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            4 of 32

 

Maclin has been one of the safest fantasy options over the last six weeks of the season. During that stretch, he had at least 68 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in every single game. While the Texans’ defense ended the season as well any, the Chiefs are three-point favorites with a team total of 21.5 points. Look for the Chiefs to move Maclin around a lot in order to avoid coverage against Johnathan Joseph.

 

James Jones: $5,700 (vs. Washington Redskins)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               90.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      14.5%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Washington Redskins

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):                28 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            22 of 32

 

Jones has seen WR1 targets over the last four weeks – 7, 9, 11, and 13 targets. Aaron Rodgers has not found a go-to receiver all season, but it looks like he has been relying on the veteran in recent weeks. Jones should see 8-10 targets against the Redskins, who allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

 

 

 

Tournament Targets:

 

A.J. Green: $8,300 (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               79.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      8.4%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Pittsburgh Steelers

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):                27 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            32 of 32

 

Green is my favorite tournament play of the week. He is also a sneaky cash game option, although he is a little risky given the fact that his ownership will be low. AJ McCarron doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, but the Bengals are facing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. During the regular season, the Steelers allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers.

 

 

Doug Baldwin: $7,300 (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               73.5%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      10.5%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Minnesota Vikings

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):                9 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            13 of 32

 

Baldwin really emerged in the last six weeks of the season, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game. He has always been one of the best route runners in the NFL and once Jimmy Graham went down, he went on a touchdown binge. This game will be played in freezing temperatures, which should help lower Baldwin’s ownership in tournaments.

 

Randall Cobb: $6,500 (vs. Washington Redskins)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               87.9%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      10.5%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Washington Redskins

WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders):                28 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            22 of 32

 

As mentioned above, James Jones has been the most targeted receiver in the Packers’ offense over the last four weeks, but Cobb is still a trusted weapon for Aaron Rodgers. He draws a favorable matchup this week against the Redskins, who have not covered slot receivers well this season. Cobb is a sneaky tournament play in a game that could end up being the highest scoring of the Wild Card round.

 

 

Tight End

 

Cash Game Target:

 

Jordan Reed: $7,400 (vs. Green Bay Packers)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               65.2%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      10.9%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Green Bay Packers

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders):    4 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            20 of 32

 

For cash game purposes, take Reed and move on. He is by far the top play at the position this week. He has been putting up Gronk-like numbers in the second half of the season and he should see double-digit targets this week. He also draws a decent matchup against the Packers, who are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.

 

 

Tournament Target:

 

Heath Miller: $5,300 (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

 

Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)               

Snap Count Percentage:               97.4%

Touch/Target Percentage (All Plays):      7.7%

               

Matchup             

Opponent:          Cincinnati Bengals

TE DVOA (FootballOutsiders):    12 of 32

Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule):            11 of 32

 

 

Miller has had two big games against the Bengals this season. He had a combined 20 receptions for 171 yards in those two meetings. As mentioned above, the Steelers are going to lean heavily on their passing game this weekend. With everyone on Jordan Reed in cash games, Miller should have an ownership level below 10%.

Derek "Notorious Farnsworth
Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth is ranked #7 Overall, has won a $50,000 Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship, qualified for the 2013 FanDuel Basketball Championship, and is a lead contributor on RotoGrinders.com. When he’s not winning daily fantasy contests, the Talented Mr. Noto can be found on Twitter @RG_Notorious.