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Daily Fantasy Decisions

CFB DFS: Bowls and the CFP

by Hayden Winks

The process here is simple. Use Vegas lines to predict scores and game script. Use S&P+ to find where offenses will attack opposing defenses. And use Rotoworld blurbs to track news and depth chart changes. By doing these three things, we can build a quality player pool to build rosters with.

 

In this column, I’ll go team-by-team (going from the highest implied team total to the lowest) and write up the players who have the highest probability of 3x-ing their DraftKings salary. If I’m on the border of a player, then I write their name next to “Fringe Plays.” And if you don’t see the player listed, then you can assume I am fading them completely. If you want an explanation, please send me a message on Twitter (@Haydenwinks).

The link to the last four weeks of data: http://bit.ly/CFBtargets

 

 

 

The player write-ups are coming!

 

 

1. Alabama 45.5 points (14-point favorite) vs. Oklahoma

OU Def. S&P Rank: 89 (worst on slate)

OU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 91 (worst on slate)

OU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 53

 

QB Tua Tagovailoa ($8,500) will be out there at near 100% according to team doctors, and DraftKings is certainly giving us an injury discount; This is his lowest price tag on the season. Tagovailoa has 4x-ed his current salary three times this season, including his 44.6 DK-point game two weeks ago against Auburn, and he will likely play the entire game with the season on the line. If Bama scores the five to seven touchdowns Vegas is expecting, then Tagovailoa will likely be a part of three to five of them making him an elite option. We obviously want to be overweight on players who have the highest team total on the slate and who are playing the worst defense on the slate. … WR Jerry Jeudy ($7,200) has led Alabama in targets in two of the last four weeks, and Jeudy is tied for fourth in targets (8.3) since Week 11 on the slate. The talented sophomore hasn't been overly productive over that span, however, which isn't reflective of how good he actually is. Jeudy has averaged 12.1 YPT on the season, so we should project about 100 yards against Oklahoma with upside for 40 DK points. ... WR Henry Ruggs ($6,200) has averaged 7.3 targets over the last three games, which is the same as Jeudy over that span. Ruggs and Jeudy also have a very similar YPT and TD rate, so Ruggs may be a slightly better play with the $1,000 savings. That doesn't mean fade Jeudy though. ... WR Jaylen Waddle ($5,600) has been the third passing game option, averaging 5.8 targets per game since Week 11. Waddle, like Jeudy and Ruggs, is an incredible player and has huge upside. The No. 3 has a huge 14.3 yards per target average and has scored seven touchdowns on 56 targets. ... WR Irv Smith ($4,500) has a more fluncuating target share, but he has been targeted five and six times in the last two games. Smith also has a high-end 12.0 YPT average and has seven touchdowns on just 54 targets. The tight end will need to score a long touchdown or score two short ones to 4x his current salary, but both situations are in play against Oklahoma. ... RB Josh Jacobs ($5,900) is gaining momentum as the RB1 in the 2019 NFL Draft, assuming he declares, but Alabama hasn't been feeding Jacobs. There is some probability that his role grows from 6-10 touches to 12-16 touches against a bad defense, but Jacobs has 3x-ed his current salary in back-to-back games despite being in the lower-touch range. Jacobs could bust with low volume, but the 3x and 4x upside keeps him in play. ... RB Damien Harris ($5,200) has game script on his  side, but he will need a touchdown to pay off his salary with the 100-yard rushing bonus looking like a low-probability outcome. Harris, like Jacobs, is a low-floor, high-ceiling tournament option. ... Fringe Plays: WR Devonta Smith ($4,600), RB Najee Harris ($4,000).

 

2. Clemson 34.25 points (12.5-point favorite) vs. Notre Dame

ND Def. S&P Rank: 4

ND Def. Passing S&P Rank: 8

ND Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 18

 

Vegas is siding with Clemson's offense over Notre Dame's defense, despite the Irish ranking way above average in both pass and run defense. That's probably because of QB Trevor Lawrence's and RB Travis Etienne's real-life skill-sets. But Lawrence is nowhere near on the same level as Tua Tagovailoa for fantasy purposes, but Lawrence still has 3x and 4x upside this Saturday. Lawrence is a fringe play, but we really should be finding the $1,000 to get to Tua. ... RB Travis Etienne ($8,200) has scored multiple touchdowns in eight of the last 11 games, including three games with three scores. With Clemson projected to score three to five touchdowns, Etienne is projected for 1-2 touchdowns this Saturday. Etienne also has a decent shot for the 100-yard bonus, so Etienne is an obvious tournament option even against Notre Dame's plus defense. ... WR Tee Higgins ($5,800) has averaged 7.3 targets over the last four games, and he's averaged a respectable 9.4 YPT. Higgins has 4x-ed his current price four times, but this matchup should lower expectations. Ultimately, Higgins has upside but his pure points-per-dollar expectation is lower than other receivers in this range. Of course, we don't really care about average projections when building tournament lineups. ... WR Justyn Ross ($4,900) has been the best Clemson receiver by a distant margin this season. Ross is averaging 12.3 yards per target and the next closest is Higgins at 9.4 YPT (min. 20 targets). As a result, Ross' targets have slowly climbed. Clemson would be smart to get Ross more involved -- he has 5.5 targets in the last four games -- with weeks to prepare a game plan. I prefer Ross (and the $900) to Higgins for tournaments. … Fringe Plays: QB Trevor Lawrence ($7,500), WR Amari Rodgers ($4,500), WR Hunter Renfrow ($4,100), RB Tavien Feaster ($4,200), RB Adam Choice ($3,900).

3. Oklahoma 31.5 points (14-point underdog) vs. Alabama

BAMA Def. S&P Rank: 8

BAMA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 7

BAMA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 4

 

QB Kyler Murray ($9,300) and the Sooners have their hands full against Alabama's NFL-prospect-filled defense, but Murray has the skills to grind his way to a big fantasy line. Murray has six games with over 40 DK points, but he only need 30 DK points to be worth his reduced price. Murray can get there with three or four total touchdowns and one of the two bonuses. If he's going to pay off, I'm expecting it to come on long touchdown passes or with his legs against Alabama's aggresive defense. Ultimately, Murray has too much upside to ignore, but he's not the near must start he has been this season. ... WR Marquise Brown ($7,000) is questionable to play, and we might not get confirmation by the start of the two morning games. If building a lineup with Brown in it, I'd make sure to either leave $200 to pivot to Jerry Jeudy or to not use CeeDee Lamb in that lineup in the event we get news that Brown is out or severly limited. If Brown is close to full health, then Brown is an obvious great stack with Kyler Murray. If Brown goes off, then Murray will likely be in the optimal. However, I'm leaning towards fully fading Brown in all non-Murray lineups because of price, injury risk, and other similarly priced options. … WR CeeDee Lamb ($6,800) has been priced up with Marquise Brown potentially missing. If Brown is active, then I'll be on fading Lamb at his elevated price tag in non-Murray lineups. If Brown is ruled out or severly limited, then Lamb is an obvious great stack with Murry. Lamb has a huge 13.3 YPT average this season along with 10 touchdowns. ... Fringe Plays: RB Kennedy Brooks ($5,300), WR Lee Morris ($4,800), WR Grant Calcaterra ($4,300), WR Myles Tease ($3,000) or WR Nick Basquine ($3,000) or WR Charleston Rambo ($3,000) if Marquise Brown is out.

 

4. South Carolina 29.5 points (5.5-point favorite) vs. Virginia

UVA Def. S&P Rank: 29

UVA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 27

UVA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 39

 

QB Jake Bentley has 18 touchdowns in the last five games, and Vegas is expecting South Carolina to score three or four touchdowns this Saturday. Bentley should be involved with two of them with the upside for four, but he will be without WR Deebo Samuel who is focusing on the NFL Draft. Without Samuel, Bentley is just a fringe tournament play. ... WR Bryan Edwards ($6,700) has been targeted 8.0 times per game over the last four, but that number should approach double digits with Samuel (8.3 targets) out. Edwards is a big play maker averaging 9.4 yards per target this season. For these two reasons, Edwards is a candidate for the 100-yard bonus and one touchdown making him a decent tournament option. ... WR Shi Smith ($5,500) is "widely regarded as the fastest player on the team" and he's expected to play despite the questionable tag on DraftKings. Smith's elite speed squarely puts him in play, especially since he enters Saturday with a team-high 10.5 YPT average (min. 20 targets). South Carolina plans on putting Smith outside, where freshman Josh Vann will also see some time. … Fringe Plays: QB Jake Bentley ($6,900), RB Rico Dowdle ($4,700), RB Mon Denson ($4,300), RB Ty'Son Williams ($4,000, broken hand should be healed by now), WR Josh Vann ($4,000).

 

5. Michigan 28.75 points (6.5-point favorite) vs. Florida

UF Def. S&P Rank: 26

UF Def. Passing S&P Rank: 28

UF Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 47

 

TBD … Fringe Plays: TBD

 

6. Virginia 24.0 points (5.5-point underdog) vs. South Carolina

SCAR Def. S&P Rank: 61

SCAR Def. Passing S&P Rank: 35

SCAR Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 94 (worst on slate)

 

TBD … Fringe Plays: TBD

 

7. Florida 22.25 points (6.5-point underdog) vs. Michigan

UM Def. S&P Rank: 5

UM Def. Passing S&P Rank: 20

UM Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 10

 

TBD … Fringe Plays: TBD

 

8. Notre Dame 21.75 points (12.5-point underdog) vs. Clemson

CLEM Def. S&P Rank: 1

CLEM Def. Passing S&P Rank: 6

CLEM Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 1

 

TBD … Fringe Plays: TBD

 

 

 

 

Thursday Slate Bonus (Data only):

 

 

1. Vanderbilt 29.75 points (4-point favorite) vs. Baylor

BAY Def. S&P Rank: 90 (worst on slate)

BAY Def. Passing S&P Rank: 81 (worst on slate)

BAY Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 83

 

 

2. Temple 28.5 points (3-point favorite) vs. Duke

DUKE Def. S&P Rank: 49

DUKE Def. Passing S&P Rank: 34

DUKE Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 69

 

3. Baylor 25.75 points (4-point underdog) vs. Vanderbilt

VAND Def. S&P Rank: 70

VAND Def. Passing S&P Rank: 25

VAND Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 105 (worst on slate)

 

 

4. Duke 25.5 points (3-point underdog) vs. Temple

TEMP Def. S&P Rank: 24

TEMP Def. Passing S&P Rank: 1 (best on slate)

TEMP Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 38

 

 

5. Miami 25.25 points (3-point favorite) vs. Wisconsin

WISC Def. S&P Rank: 43

WISC Def. Passing S&P Rank: 64

WISC Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 61

 

 

6. Wisconsin 22.25 points (3-point underdog) vs. Miami

MIA Def. S&P Rank: 7 (best on slate)

MIA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 9

MIA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 25 (best on slate)